916
FXUS63 KILX 151811
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1211 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THE LATEST REFS GUIDANCE DEPICTS A MEDIUM-HIGH (50-70%)
CHANCE THAT VISIBILITY WILL FALL BELOW ONE-QUARTER MILE IN AREAS
NEAR AND EAST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER, EXPANDING TOWARD EAST-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR (20-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) ARRIVES THIS
WEEK, PEAKING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH MID-TO-UPPER 60S
TEMPERATURES. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS (30-40 MPH) ON TUESDAY &
WEDNESDAY WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WARMUP.
- A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE BUT
NOT PARTICULARLY LIKELY IN THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.
DISCUSSION
(THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
DRIER WEATHER HAS RETURNED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION HAS DISSOLVED THIS
MORNINGS DENSE FOG, IT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY. A DAMP SURFACE AND THAWING SUB-SURFACE WILL PROMOTE A
STRONG MOISTURE FLUX, WHICH WILL BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH THE
OVERNIGHT THERMAL INVERSION.
NEAR AND EAST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY, THERE IS A MEDIUM-
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF DENSE FOG, WITH THE LATEST REFS GUIDANCE
SHOWING A 50-70% PROBABILITY OF VISIBILITY DROPPING BELOW ONE-
QUARTER MILE. HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT TIGHTENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY SLIGHTLY LESSEN THE FOG POTENTIAL IN AREAS
TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS THIS EVENING AND ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS
WARRANTED.
AN AGGRESSIVE WARM-UP IS THEN ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BE DRIVEN BY A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC, WHICH WILL SPREAD DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE PLAINS STATES. AS THIS
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD AND A SURFACE LEE CYCLONE STRENGTHENS, THE
MIDWEST WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS (30-40 MPH) TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NET EFFECT WILL BE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE SEASON SO FAR. CURRENT NBM MEDIAN GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUPPORTS
60S MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH THE UPPER TAIL OF GUIDANCE
PUSHING 70 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. DESPITE STRONG ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS AND EXCELLENT
FORCING MECHANISMS FOR LIFT, GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS CURRENTLY
DO NOT DEFINE A CLEAR CONVECTIVE SIGNAL. THIS IS DUE TO LIMITED
MOISTENING AND POOR THERMODYNAMICS WITHIN THE DEVELOPING WARM
SECTOR, WHICH THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN STEADFAST IN DEPICTING
RUN-OVER-RUN. AT THIS POINT, THERE IS VERY LITTLE SUPPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY. WHAT WE
MIGHT SEE INSTEAD ARE A FEW ELEVATED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THAT POSE
A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE TOP-
SHELF KINEMATICS IN PLACE (50+ KT LLJ).
A POTENTIALLY BETTER SIGNAL EMERGES FOR THURSDAY, TIED TO ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING THROUGH THE UPPER- TO MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. HOWEVER, MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROFILES IN
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE NOT PARTICULARLY PROMISING FOR THIS
PERIOD EITHER, AT LEAST AT THE CURRENT TIME. THE EXCEPTION COULD
BE DOWN ACROSS SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS WHERE BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING
BRINGS MID-50S SFC DEWPOINTS AND A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF SBCAPE
AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
A SHIFT TO COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN AND PERSIST FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE NBM DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS DAILY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
LOWER 40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. TEMPERATURES THEN
DROP NEAR NORMAL FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 40 DEGREES AND LOWS
NEAR 20.
MJA
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
DENSE FOG HAS RECENTLY LIFTED AND IFR CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY ERODE
OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS, LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS INTO THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING SUNDAY.
FOR NOW HAVE DROPPED VISIBILITIES TO IFR, BUT THERE IS A POTENTIAL
FOR LIFR- VLIFR CONDITIONS ON LATER UPDATES. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
TONIGHT, THEN INCREASING BY LATE MORNING, SW AT 10-15 KT.
25
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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