883
FXUS63 KILX 160259
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
859 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE
LATEST HREF GUIDANCE DEPICTS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE (50-70%)
FOR VISIBILITY TO FALL BELOW ONE-QUARTER MILE.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR (20-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) ARRIVES THIS
WEEK, PEAKING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH MID-TO-UPPER 60S
TEMPERATURES. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS (30-40 MPH) ON TUESDAY &
WEDNESDAY WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WARMUP.
- A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE BUT
NOT PARTICULARLY LIKELY IN THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 859 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS EVENING SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE THE NORTHEAST US. WINDS REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA, BUT WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST HEADING INTO MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF A PASSING LOW TO THE NORTH. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS OUT AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT, THOUGH COVERAGE
UPSTREAM LOOKS RATHER SCATTERED.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPING
TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAY'S RAIN BECOMES TRAPPED
BENEATH A TEMPERATURE INVERSION. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG
CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE STATE (NEAR/SOUTH OF I-
70) WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL AND WINDS WILL STAY LIGHTEST THE
LONGEST. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN AFFECT FOR THESE COUNTIES
BEGINNING AT MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MID MORNING. AN
EXPANSION NORTHWARD IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH A FEW CAMS
SUGGESTING DENSE FOG STRETCHING AS FAR NORTH AS A DECATUR TO
CHAMPAIGN LINE. WILL MAKE ANY NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT
ADVISORY BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
NMA
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
DRIER WEATHER HAS RETURNED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION HAS DISSOLVED THIS
MORNINGS DENSE FOG, IT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY. A DAMP SURFACE AND THAWING SUB-SURFACE WILL PROMOTE A
STRONG MOISTURE FLUX, WHICH WILL BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH THE
OVERNIGHT THERMAL INVERSION.
NEAR AND EAST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY, THERE IS A MEDIUM-
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF DENSE FOG, WITH THE LATEST REFS GUIDANCE
SHOWING A 50-70% PROBABILITY OF VISIBILITY DROPPING BELOW ONE-
QUARTER MILE. HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT TIGHTENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY SLIGHTLY LESSEN THE FOG POTENTIAL IN AREAS
TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS THIS EVENING AND ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS
WARRANTED.
AN AGGRESSIVE WARM-UP IS THEN ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BE DRIVEN BY A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC, WHICH WILL SPREAD DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE PLAINS STATES. AS THIS
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD AND A SURFACE LEE CYCLONE STRENGTHENS, THE
MIDWEST WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS (30-40 MPH) TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NET EFFECT WILL BE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE SEASON SO FAR. CURRENT NBM MEDIAN GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUPPORTS
60S MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH THE UPPER TAIL OF GUIDANCE
PUSHING 70 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. DESPITE STRONG ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS AND EXCELLENT
FORCING MECHANISMS FOR LIFT, GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS CURRENTLY
DO NOT DEFINE A CLEAR CONVECTIVE SIGNAL. THIS IS DUE TO LIMITED
MOISTENING AND POOR THERMODYNAMICS WITHIN THE DEVELOPING WARM
SECTOR, WHICH THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN STEADFAST IN DEPICTING
RUN-OVER-RUN. AT THIS POINT, THERE IS VERY LITTLE SUPPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY. WHAT WE
MIGHT SEE INSTEAD ARE A FEW ELEVATED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THAT POSE
A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE TOP-
SHELF KINEMATICS IN PLACE (50+ KT LLJ).
A POTENTIALLY BETTER SIGNAL EMERGES FOR THURSDAY, TIED TO ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING THROUGH THE UPPER- TO MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. HOWEVER, MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROFILES IN
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE NOT PARTICULARLY PROMISING FOR THIS
PERIOD EITHER, AT LEAST AT THE CURRENT TIME. THE EXCEPTION COULD
BE DOWN ACROSS SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS WHERE BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING
BRINGS MID-50S SFC DEWPOINTS AND A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF SBCAPE
AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
A SHIFT TO COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN AND PERSIST FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE NBM DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS DAILY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
LOWER 40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. TEMPERATURES THEN
DROP NEAR NORMAL FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 40 DEGREES AND LOWS
NEAR 20.
MJA
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
FEW TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS ARE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH LIGHT WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. DENSE FOG APPEARS LIKELY
ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A TEMPERATURE INVERSION. IFR TO
OCCASIONALLY LIFR VISIBILITY IS FORECAST, THOUGH A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT/INCREASING WINDS OVERNIGHT COULD LOWER THIS
POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE IL RIVER. FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME
BREEZY.
NMA
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR ILZ062-063-066>068-
071>073.
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