482
FXUS63 KILX 161718
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1118 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING. USE CAUTION IF
TRAVELING AS VISIBILITY MAY CHANGE RAPIDLY AND OFTEN.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR (20-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) ON DECK FOR
THIS WEEK, PEAKING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH MID-TO-UPPER 60S
TEMPERATURES. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS WARMUP. THERE IS A 50-80% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 30 MPH.
- A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE BUT
NOT PARTICULARLY LIKELY IN THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
THERE ARE AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN IL THIS
MORNING. EXPECTATIONS WERE THAT THE FOG WOULD CLEAR OUT IN THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AS SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVED IN AND WINDS BEGAN
TO INCREASE SOME, BUT IT IS HANGING ON REAL TIGHT THIS MORNING.
THERE IS A DENSE FOG ADVISORY OUT FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN IL
THAT WILL EXPIRE AT 14Z. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA AFFECTED BY
THE FOG IS BEING MESSAGE WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. THE FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE AS THE SUN RISES THIS MORNING. IF TRAVELING, BE
PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING VISIBILITIES (RANGING FROM NO VIS TO
CLEAR FIELD OF VIEW) FROM THE PATCHY NATURE OF THE DENSE FOG.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE SETTLED IN FOR THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S
(INTO THE MID 50S ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN EXCEPTION) ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE WARMEST DAY BEING WEDNESDAY WITH THE NBM
HAVING A 60-80% CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 65 DEGREES THAT
AFTERNOON.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WHILE BEING WARM, WILL ALSO BE QUITE WINDY,
WITH FORECAST WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
TIGHTENING AHEAD OF A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THIS WEEK. THE
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED FROM TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH NBM PROBABILITIES OF 50-80% CHANCE FOR WIND
GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH.
THERE IS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS FORECAST TO TRAVEL ACROSS
THE US THIS WEEK. THE FIRST ARRIVING TOMORROW NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING IS THE NEXT CHANCE (20-50%) FOR SOME RAIN, PARTICULARLY
NORTH OF I-70, AS A LOW PASSES OFF TO THE NORTH OF IL. THE GFS AND
EURO MODELS ARE SHOWING VERY MINIMAL PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WITH
THIS ROUND. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK UNLIKELY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE PRETTY MINIMAL (< 0.1 INCH)
AS OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
THE SECOND SYSTEM LOOKS HOLD A BIT MORE IMPACT AND IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES (40-60%) TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN IL. QPF OF UP TO THREE
TENTHS OF AN INCH. THURSDAY AFTERNOON EASTERN IL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE AND 20-30 KNOTS OF BULK
WIND SHEAR. THIS IS STUNTED ALTHOUGH BY A CAP OF UP TO -100 J/KG OF
CIN. THERE IS BETTER ENVIRONMENTAL SUPPORT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SOUTH
OF I-70 COMPARED TO NORTH OF I-70, SO THAT WOULD BE THE AREA TO
WATCH FOR ANY POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP. MACHINE LEARNING IS HINTING AT
THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM (ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHEASTERN IL), BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW IN ANY SEVERE
WEATHER OCCURING AS OF NOW. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AS
WE APPROACH THURSDAY.
A COOL DOWN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE SERIES OF
SYSTEMS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THAT WILL PASS THIS WEEK. HIGHS
STARTING FRIDAY ARE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.
SUNDAY POTENTIALLY BE THE COOLEST WITH HIGHS NEAR FREEZING AND LOWS
IN THE TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT.
COPPLE
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGIONAL TERMINALS. CURRENT HI-RESOULTION MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
THE HIGHEST CHANCES NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 BETWEEN
08Z-15Z, WHEN VISIBILITY COULD FALL TO ONE MILE OR LESS. BUT UNTIL
THAT TIME, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. MEANWHILE, SOUTH WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 10-15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
MJA
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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