244
FXUS63 KILX 162336
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
536 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MEDIUM-HIGH (50-70%) CHANCE FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY IN AREAS NEAR AND EAST
OF INTERSTATE 55.
- APRIL-LIKE WARMTH, WITH DAILY TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S, IS
FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST- CENTRAL
ILLINOIS, DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
- THURSDAY BRINGS AN INCREASED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO AREAS
ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
PATCHY DENSE FOG IS ONCE AGAIN A CONCERN OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS A DAMP SURFACE AND THAWING SUB-SURFACE PROMOTES A
SHALLOW MOISTURE FLUX WHICH WILL BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH THE
OVERNIGHT THERMAL INVERSION.
NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 55, THERE IS A MEDIUM-HIGH LIKELIHOOD
OF DENSE FOG, WITH THE LATEST REFS GUIDANCE SHOWING A 50-70%
PROBABILITY OF VISIBILITY DROPPING BELOW ONE-QUARTER MILE BETWEEN
09Z-15Z. HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT MAY LESSEN THE FOG POTENTIAL IN AREAS TO THE WEST OF
INTERSTATE 55. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THIS EVENING AND
ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS NEEDED.
OUR WELL-ADVERTISED WARM-UP WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BE DRIVEN BY A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC, WHICH WILL SPREAD DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE PLAINS STATES. AS THIS
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD AND A SURFACE LEE CYCLONE STRENGTHENS, THE
MIDWEST WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS (30-40 MPH) TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NET EFFECT WILL BE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE SEASON SO FAR. CURRENT NBM MEDIAN GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUPPORTS
60S EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH THE UPPER TAIL OF GUIDANCE
PUSHING 70 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY, DRIVEN BY THE
UNUSUALLY WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE PRIMARY RISK AREA WILL
LIKELY BE WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS, WHICH HAS SEEN PARTICULARLY
SPARSE RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS. THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED IN
THE AFTERNOON, WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES DROPPING BELOW 30% AS WIND
GUSTS GRADUALLY DECREASE.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN MID-WEEK IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER, DESPITE STRONG ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS AND EXCELLENT
SYNOPTIC ASCENT, GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO MUTE THE
CONVECTIVE SIGNAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS IS
ATTRIBUTED TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND POOR THERMODYNAMICS WITHIN THE
DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR, A FEATURE THAT GLOBAL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN
CONSISTENTLY OVER CONSECUTIVE RUNS. CONSEQUENTLY, SUPPORT FOR
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IS CURRENTLY VERY LOW. INSTEAD, WE
MAY SEE A FEW ELEVATED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS, PRESENTING A MARGINAL
RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IF MOMENTUM IS TRANSFERRED
BENEATH THE 50+ KT LLJ.
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER- TO MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER ARE CENTERED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO AND LOWER WABASH RIVER VALLEYS. IN
THESE AREAS, BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 50S AND CREATE 500-1000
J/KG OF SBCAPE ACROSS A BROADENING WARM SECTOR. THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (60+ KTS) AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL
BE CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ALL
SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.
A SHIFT TO COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN AND PERSIST FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE NBM DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS DAILY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
MIDDLE 40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S. TEMPERATURES THEN
DROP NEAR NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 40 DEGREES
AND LOWS NEAR 20.
MJA
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 536 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOME OVERNIGHT, WITH SPEEDS DROPPING
TO AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS. PATCHY DENSE FOG APPEARS POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES (40-60%) OF VISIBILITY
FALLING BELOW 1 MILE IN EASTERN IL BETWEEN 10-15Z. OUTSIDE OF THE
FOG, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER
INCREASING ON TUESDAY. WINDS BECOME BREEZY ONCE AGAIN BY AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS FORECAST.
NMA
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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