453
FXUS63 KILX 171136
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
536 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON WITH A 70-90% CHANCE
OF WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH FROM 6PM TO 3AM TONIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN IL.
- APRIL-LIKE WARMTH, WITH DAILY TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S, IS
FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL IL, DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
THURSDAY FOR AREAS EAST, SOUTHEAST OF A JACKSONVILLE TO
BLOOMINGTON LINE. PRIMARY HAZARDS ARE TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
WINDS, BUT SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 246 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
RECORD WARMTH OCCURRED YESTERDAY, AND WE WILL BE FLIRTING WITH
MORE POTENTIAL RECORD HIGHS THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, NEARING 70 IN SOME LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S WILL BE
PLEASANT. THEN LOWS WILL BECOME COOLER THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. AFTER THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES COOL TO MORE
SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S.
SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN TODAY AHEAD OF SYSTEM #1 OF THE WEEK AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE TRAIN OF SYSTEMS. WINDS
WILL GUST TO 30-40 MPH TODAY BASED OFF HRRR, NAMNEST, AND HREF. THE
HREF IS SHOWING A 70-90% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH
FROM 00Z THIS EVENING TO 09Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AFTER 12Z
TOMORROW MORNING TO CLOSER TO 20 MPH GUSTS FOR WEDNESDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING, WINDS WILL RELAX EVEN MORE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AS THE SECOND LOW SYSTEM APPROACHES ILLINOIS.
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW, DRIVEN BY THE UNUSUALLY
WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE PRIMARY RISK AREA WILL LIKELY BE
WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS, WHICH HAS SEEN PARTICULARLY SPARSE RAINFALL
OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS. THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON,
WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES DROPPING BELOW 30% AS WIND GUSTS GRADUALLY
DECREASE.
THE SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IS STILL FORECAST TO IMPACT
CENTRAL IL THIS WEEK. THE FIRST ARRIVING TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BRINGING A 20-50% CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN, FOCUSED NORTH OF I-
70, AS A LOW PASSES OFF TO THE NORTH OF IL WITH A COLD FRONT
SWOOPING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN IL. MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING VERY MINIMAL PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WITH THIS ROUND.
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK UNLIKELY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO LOOK PRETTY MINIMAL (< 0.1 INCH) THIS
FORECAST CYCLE, WITH THE MEASURABLE AMOUNTS MAINLY NORTH OF I-72.
THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL PACK MORE OF A PUNCH AND IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING 40-60% CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN IL. CAMS ARE STILL JUST
OUT OF REACH FOR THIS EVENT AS OF THIS MORNING. HOWEVER BY THIS
AFTERNOON, WE SHOULD START TO SEE A MORE DETAILED PICTURE OF THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. IT LOOKS LIKE THE AREA TO WATCH FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS EAST OF I-55, CHANCES IMPROVING AS YOU APPROACH THE
INDIANA BORDER AND I-70 CORRIDOR. A COARSE LOOK AT THE STORM TYPE
SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLULAR ACTIVITY. TAKING A GANDER AT THE
ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON, MUCAPE/SBCAPE VALUES
OF 700-1000 J/KG AND BULK WIND SHEAR OF 60-80 KNOTS ARE FORECAST,
MAKING THIS A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SET UP. THERE IS ~500 J/KG OF
DCAPE ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE PRIMARY HAZARD OF CONCERN AT
THIS TIME IS THE TORNADO AND DAMAGING WINDS POTENTIAL. SMALL HAIL
MAY FALL BUT THE INGREDIENTS AREN'T SCREAMING HAIL POTENTIAL RIGHT
NOW. SPC HAS A D3 SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR AREAS EAST,
SOUTHEAST OF A JACKSONVILLE TO BLOOMINGTON LINE.
THERE IS A THIRD SYSTEM NOW FOR THE WEEKEND (SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY)
THAT COULD BRING SOME RAIN, SNOW, AND MAYBE A MIX TO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN IL. SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE MINIMAL, JUST A DUSTING. WE
NEED TO GET THROUGH THE FIRST TWO SYSTEMS, SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS DEVELOPMENT AS THE WEEK CONTINUES.
COPPLE
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL START OUT THE DAY. BY MID
AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25-35 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH. A
ROGUE WIND GUST AROUND 40 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT THERE MAY BE DRY
PERIODS AT TIME. WITH DRY MID LEVELS, IT MIGHT BE HARD TO SQUEEZE
A DECENT SHOWER OUT. THIS UNCERTAINTY INFLUENCED THE PROB30
GROUPS. THESE RAIN SHOWERS AND THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WILL
BRING MVFR CEILINGS TO ALL SITES BY LATE THIS EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY ~10Z TOMORROW MORNING.
LLWS WILL IMPACT ALL SITES BUT CMI TOMORROW MORNING, 40 KNOTS FROM
THE WEST.
COPPLE
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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