061
FXUS63 KILX 181125
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
525 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS TODAY WILL PROMOTE NEAR-RECORD WARMTH THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH DAILY TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S.
- A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ELEVATED FIRE
CONCERNS TODAY ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS, DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR
AREAS EAST/SOUTHEAST OF A JACKSONVILLE TO BLOOMINGTON LINE LATE
TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ALL HAZARDS ARE
POSSIBLE.
- COOLER WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND WITH A LOW CHANCE (20-30%)
OF SNOW. BY SUNDAY MORNING, THERE IS A 30-60% CHANCE OF APPARENT
TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 10 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
ISOLATED AREAS OF LIGHT SPRINKLES ARE STILL LINGERING IN CENTRAL IL
THIS MORNING. THEY SHOULD BE DONE BY 10-12Z. IF ANY OF THE RAIN IS
ABLE TO REACH THE SURFACE, AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN MINIMAL THIS FAR. THE
DRY MIDLEVEL HAS BEEN LIMITING THE RAIN FROM REACHING THE SURFACE.
THIS IS ENCOURAGING THE ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER RISK FOR TODAY
SINCE WE WEREN'T ABLE TO GET SUFFICIENT WETTENING OF THE GROUND
FROM THIS WAVE OF PRECIPITATION. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW
FOR A MORE DETAILED FORECAST PERTAINING TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TODAY.
WE WILL BE FLIRTING WITH MORE POTENTIAL RECORD HIGHS TODAY AND
TOMORROW. HIGHS IN THE 60S, NEARING 70 ARE FORECAST. THIS WILL BE
THE WARMEST MORNING WE HAVE HAD IN AWHILE. AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE TOMORROW, TEMPERATURES ARE SET TO COOL TO MORE SEASONABLE
LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW
40S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S. THE LREF IS SHOWING
A 30- 60% CHANCE OF APPARENT TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 10 DEGREES ON
SUNDAY MORNING. THESE NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO
THE NEW WEEK WITH THEM WARMING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MID NEXT
WEEK.
THE WIND MACHINE HAS BEEN CRANKING TONIGHT. THE WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE SINCE GUSTS HAVE STAYED BELOW 45 MPH FOR THE
LAST FEW HOURS, THOUGH WINDS ARE STILL QUITE STRONG. SOUTHERLY WINDS
HAVE STARTED TO SHIFT TO WESTERLY THIS MORNING AS THE FIRST COLD
FRONT OF THE WEEK PASSES. WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH THIS MORNING.
WINDS SHOULD RELAX TO 10-15 MPH BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
THE SECOND SYSTEM OF THE WEEK WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN IL LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE EVENING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING 60-80% CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN IL. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING
AROUND 15-17Z THURSDAY AND SHOULD EXIT THE EASTERN BORDER INTO
INDIANA BY 00Z THAT EVENING. STORM TYPE WILL START OUT DISCRETE WITH
SOME SUPERCELLULAR ACTIVITY. AS THE STORMS START TO APPROACH FAR
EASTERN IL, IT APPEARS TO EVOLVE INTO A MORE LINEAR MODE,
POTENTIALLY WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. THE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MUCAPE/SBCAPE VALUES OF 700-1000 J/KG AND
BULK WIND SHEAR OF 50-70 KNOTS. THERE IS 500-700 J/KG OF DCAPE ON
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. INITIALLY WITH THE DISCRETE STORM TYPE,
(NEAR) SEVERE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. AS THE
EVENT EVOLVES INTO A MORE LINEAR FASHION, A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY. ALL HAZARDS ARE BEING WATCHED WITH
THIS EVENT. SPC HAS KEPT A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR AREAS
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF A JACKSONVILLE TO BLOOMINGTON LINE FOR TOMORROW.
THE 5% TORNADO RISK IS FOCUSED SOUTH OF I-72. THE 15% HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND RISK IS FOR THE ENTIRE SLIGHT RISK AREA.
THE THIRD SYSTEM ON SATURDAY THAT COULD BRING SOME RAIN, SNOW, AND
MAYBE A MIX TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN IL IS LOOKING A LITTLE LESS
LIKELY WITH RECENT RUNS OF LONG RANGE MODELS. IF WE ARE ABLE TO
SQUEEZE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION, SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL, JUST
A DUSTING. WE NEED TO GET THROUGH THE FIRST TWO SYSTEMS, SO WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS DEVELOPMENT AS THE WEEK CONTINUES.
COPPLE
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING (GUSTING 25-30 KNOTS) WILL LESSEN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. BY MID AFTERNOON, GUSTS WILL DIE DOWN
WITH WINDS STILL SUSTAINED AT 10-20 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
AFTER 06Z, WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE (GENERALLY OUT OF THE
SOUTH).
COPPLE
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
THERE IS ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY, A SIDE EFFECT OF THE
UNUSUALLY WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE PRIMARY RISK AREA IS
PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS, WHERE RAINFALL
HAS BEEN PARTICULARLY SPARSE OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS. THIS THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT/DRYLINE,
WITH WIND GUSTS GRADUALLY DECREASING INTO THE 20-30 MPH RANGE AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES DROPPING BELOW 25%. A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS NORTH OF A HANCOCK COUNTY TO
MCLEAN COUNTY LINE WHERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE HIGHEST AND RH WILL BE
LOWEST. OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.
COPPLE
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY:
LOCATION WEDNESDAY THURSDAY
======== ========= =========
BLOOMINGTON 72 (2017) 70 (1930)
CHAMPAIGN 70 (2017) 68 (2017)
CHARLESTON 68 (1961) 72 (1930)
DECATUR 70 (1911) 66 (1930)
LINCOLN 67 (2017) 71 (1930)
OLNEY 72 (1961) 72 (1930)
PEORIA 68 (2017) 71 (1930)
SPRINGFIELD 68 (2017) 71 (2017)
GEELHART
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-041.
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