377
FXUS63 KILX 182005
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
205 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS TODAY WILL PROMOTE NEAR-RECORD WARMTH THROUGH
TOMORROW WITH DAILY TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.
- A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS
TODAY ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS, DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR
AREAS EAST/SOUTHEAST OF A JACKSONVILLE TO HAVANA LINE LATE
TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ALL HAZARDS ARE
POSSIBLE.
- COOLER WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND WITH A VERY LOW CHANCE (20%
OR LESS) OF LIGHT SNOW. ON MONDAY MORNING, THERE IS A 30-60%
CHANCE OF APPARENT TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 10 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
SUNNY SKIES AND BREEZY WINDS HAVE HELPED TO LIFT TEMPERATURES TO
THE UPPER 60S WITH SOME SITES REACHING 70, CHALLENGING RECORD
WARMTH. WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 MPH TODAY OUT
OF THE WEST. THE INFLUX OF DRY AIR AND STRONG MIXING HAS ALLOWED
DEW POINTS TO TANK IN NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS COMBINATION LINES UP WELL WITH THE RED FLAG WARNING AREA
WHICH REMAINS IN EFFECT (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS). TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S AGAIN ON
THURSDAY, WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY LIMITING POTENTIAL
FOR RECORDS.
WESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AS THE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH TRACKS FURTHER NORTHWARD. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE ELONGATED TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD. MODELS,
ESPECIALLY THE HI-RES MODELS, HAVE LARGELY REMOVED ANY POTENTIAL
OF OVERNIGHT RAIN, WITH CONDITIONS PREDOMINANTLY DRY THROUGH MID-
MORNING THURSDAY. THERE IS VARIATION IN MODEL TIMING, BUT LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH START
OUT AS DISCRETE STORMS AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS. LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON ORGANIZATION INTO A BROKEN LINE IS MORE LIKELY WITH THE
STORMS TOWARDS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COVERAGE AREA. THE DAY 2
SPC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS HAD A SMALL WESTWARD EXPANSION OF
THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) AREA EAST/SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
JACKSONVILLE TO HAVANA WITH CONTINUATION OF 5% TORNADO AND 15%
HAIL/WIND AREAS. THE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY STRONG
BULK WIND SHEAR OF 50-75 KTS, WHILE CAPE VARIES AMONG MODELS BUT
GENERALLY RESIDES AROUND 500-800 J/KG. WHILE HEAVY RAIN MAY
ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS, NO TRAINING IS ANTICIPATED AND QPF IS
LIMITED, SO NO FLOODING ISSUES ARE PROJECTED.
SOME MODELS (SUCH AS THE 18Z HRRR) BREAK UP THE STORM DEVELOPMENT
INTO TWO PHASES WITH THE FIRST PHASE MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS
A SSW TO NNE ORIENTED LINE MOVING TOWARDS INDIANA, AND THE SECOND
PHASE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS A NNW TO SSE
ORIENTED LINE FORMING NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE COVERAGE AREA
AND TRACKING TOWARDS CHICAGO. SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN POSITION EXIST
ACROSS THE MODELS. POPS ARE SOMEWHAT LIMITED THROUGH THE DAY
(PEAKING AROUND 50-60% MOST PLACES) BECAUSE OF THE BROKEN NATURE
OF THESE CELLS.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, SENDING
TEMPERATURES MUCH LOWER FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS DROPPING TO
THE MID-30S BY SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH WEAKER FOR
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL SATURDAY, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
NON-IMPACTFUL SNOW REMAINING. NORTHWESTERLIES CONTINUE TO BRING
COLD AIR IN LATE WEEKEND, WITH MONDAY MORNING WIND CHILLS HAVING A
30-60% CHANCE OF DROPPING BELOW 10F. DRY WEATHER BEGINS NEXT
WEEK, WITH A WARMING TREND TOWARDS MIDWEEK.
PAH
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS.
GUSTS DROP OFF LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVERNIGHT
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH. HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE INCREASES TONIGHT, WITH
BKN 4-5KFT CIGS EARLY TOMORROW. MVFR CIGS MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF VSBY
REDUCTIONS NEAR SUNRISE, MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST, BUT INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND 3-5KT WINDS KEEP THE POTENTIAL LIMITED ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF. RAIN CHANCES AT THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD ARE ALSO SIMILARLY TOO LOW TO MERIT INCLUSION.
PAH
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONTINUES TODAY WITH THE PRIMARY RISK IN
WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
APPROACHING 70 AND BREEZY WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 20-30 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) HAS FALLEN TO 15-25% IN WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE COVERAGE AREA. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS NORTH OF A HANCOCK COUNTY TO MCLEAN COUNTY LINE
WHICH ARE EXPERIENCING THE LOWEST RHS. OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT
RECOMMENDED TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH
DECREASING WINDS AND HUMIDITY INCREASING AHEAD OF TOMORROW'S
SYSTEM.
PAH
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY:
LOCATION WEDNESDAY THURSDAY
======== ========= =========
BLOOMINGTON 72 (2017) 70 (1930)
CHAMPAIGN 70 (2017) 68 (2017)
CHARLESTON 68 (1961) 72 (1930)
DECATUR 70 (1911) 66 (1930)
LINCOLN 67 (2017) 71 (1930)
OLNEY 72 (1961) 72 (1930)
PEORIA 68 (2017) 71 (1930)
SPRINGFIELD 68 (2017) 71 (2017)
GEELHART
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038-041.
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