204
FXUS63 KILX 190740
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
140 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR
AREAS EAST OF A PEORIA TO ST. LOUIS LINE FROM 11AM TO 6PM. ALL
HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE.
- LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE (30-50% CHANCE) NORTH OF A RUSHVILLE TO
BLOOMINGTON LINE TONIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH. AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL.
- STRONG WINDS, GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH, ARE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL IL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS THE LOW EXITS.
THERE IS A 50-80% CHANCE OF GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH.
- COOLER WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND. ON SUNDAY MORNING, THERE IS
A 50-80% CHANCE OF APPARENT TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 10 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
CURRENTLY, THERE IS A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL IL. TODAY A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, ORIGINATING IN COLORADO, WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MIDWEST, BRINGING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN IL. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. BEHIND THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SET UP AND MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
WE SET SOME RECORDS YESTERDAY FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES AND WILL HAVE A
CHANCE TO SET MORE POTENTIAL RECORD HIGHS TODAY. HIGHS NEARING 70
ARE FORECAST AGAIN TODAY. AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS EVENING,
TEMPERATURES ARE SET TO COOL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S. THE
LREF IS SHOWING A 50-80% CHANCE OF APPARENT TEMPERATURES LESS THAN
10 DEGREES ON SUNDAY MORNING WEST OF I-55 AND ALONG/WEST OF I-57 ON
MONDAY MORNING. THESE NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE
NEW WEEK WITH THEM WARMING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MID NEXT WEEK.
A COUPLE CELLS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE MAIN EVENT LATER
THIS MORNING AS THE CAMS WERE SUGGESTING. THESE SHOULD BE THE ONLY
ONES WE SEE THIS MORNING, BUT ANOTHER ISOLATED STORM MAY DEVELOP.
THEY HAVE BEEN ELEVATED, PRIMARILY POSING A HAIL THREAT. THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THESE STORMS SHOW LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0-7.5
C/KM AND MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG.
THE MAIN EVENT WITH TODAY ARRIVES LATER THIS MORNING. STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BEGIN MOVING INTO CENTRAL IL AROUND 16-18Z
TODAY AND EXIT THE EASTERN BORDER INTO INDIANA BY 00-03Z THIS
EVENING. STORM TYPE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE DISCRETE WITH SOME
SUPERCELLULAR ACTIVITY. AS THE STORMS START TO APPROACH FAR EASTERN
IL, IT MAY BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO A MORE LINEAR MODE, POTENTIALLY WITH
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. THE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS THIS AFTERNOON SHOW
MUCAPE VALUES OF 800-1300 J/KG AND BULK WIND SHEAR OF 40-60 KNOTS.
THERE IS 500-700 J/KG OF DCAPE ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THERE HAS
BEEN AN CONSISTENT UH SWATH DEPICTED IN THE CAMS ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR FOR MID AFTERNOON TODAY FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS.
INITIALLY WITH THE DISCRETE STORM TYPE, (NEAR) SEVERE HAIL AND
TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. AS THE EVENT EVOLVES INTO A
MORE LINEAR FASHION, A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP BEHIND
THE MAIN ACTIVITY IN THE EVENING. ALL HAZARDS ARE BEING WATCHED
WITH THIS EVENT. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5)
FOR AREAS EAST OF A PEORIA TO ST. LOUIS LINE FOR TODAY, WITH A 5%
TORNADO RISK, AND 15% HAIL/DAMAGING WIND RISK EAST OF I-55. WHILE
HEAVY RAIN MAY ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS, NO TRAINING IS ANTICIPATED
AND QPF IS LIMITED, SO NO FLOODING ISSUES ARE PROJECTED.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, WE COULD GET SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION AS THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW PASSES OVERHEAD TONIGHT. HOWEVER, AMOUNTS LOOK
TO REMAIN PRETTY MINIMAL WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS FALLING IN NORTHERN
IL. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE AREA AS THE LOW EXITS. WIND
GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE FORECAST. THERE IS A 50-80% CHANCE OF GUSTS
GREATER THAN 40 MPH BASED OFF THE HREF PROBABILITIES.
THE SYSTEM WE WERE WATCHING FOR THE WEEKEND HAS GONE AWAY. WE ARE
FORECAST TO SEE DRY WEATHER AFTER THIS SYSTEM EXITS TONIGHT THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
COPPLE
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 938 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A
WARM FRONT TONIGHT OVER EAST CENTRAL IL, THEN EXPAND NORTHWEST
PAST THE I-55 CORRIDOR TOWARD 12Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT KPIA
WILL SEE LOW VISIBILITY BUT MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO MAKE IT
TO THAT TERMINAL. CATEGORY IS FORECAST TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY
MIDDAY AT ALL SITES. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AT KDEC-KCMI AND INCLUDED A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD OF PROB30. A
COUPLE ROUNDS OF SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
BUT WITH LOW COVERAGE (30% OR LESS) AND LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
TIMING OPTED TO COVER STORMS WITH A BLANKET PROB30 DURING THE
AFTERNOON. IF A TERMINAL IS IMPACTED BRIEF DROPS TO IFR AND
GUSTY/VARIABLE WINDS WILL OCCUR. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL
INCREASE BY LATE MORNING FROM THE SOUTHEAST, GUSTING NEAR 20 KT AT
TIMES, THEN VEERING SOUTHWEST AFTER 00Z.
25
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY:
LOCATION WEDNESDAY THURSDAY
======== ========= =========
BLOOMINGTON 72 (2017) 70 (1930)
CHAMPAIGN 70 (2017) 68 (2017)
CHARLESTON 68 (1961) 72 (1930)
DECATUR 70 (1911) 66 (1930)
LINCOLN 67 (2017) 71 (1930)
OLNEY 72 (1961) 72 (1930)
PEORIA 68 (2017) 71 (1930)
SPRINGFIELD 68 (2017) 71 (2017)
GEELHART
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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