366
FXUS63 KILX 191700
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1100 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SHELBYVILLE TO PARIS LINE WHERE THERE IS A
GREATER THAN 10% CHANCE OF TORNADOES.
- LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE (30-50% CHANCE) NORTH OF A RUSHVILLE TO
BLOOMINGTON LINE TONIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH. AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL.
- STRONG WINDS, GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH, ARE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL IL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS THE LOW EXITS.
THERE IS A 50-80% CHANCE OF GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
16Z/10AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT LIFTING SLOWLY N/NW
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...GENERALLY ALONG A RUSHVILLE TO PONTIAC
LINE. THERE IS A SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO THE E/SE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND ONLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S TO THE WEST IN THE
ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY.
WE ARE CURRENTLY MONITORING A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION TO THE S/SE OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MISSOURI. THESE CELLS ARE NEAR
THE SAINT LOUIS METRO AND ARE TRACKING E/NE ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR AT ABOUT 40MPH. LATEST RADAR TIMING TOOLS SUGGEST THE
ACTIVITY WILL PUSH INTO THE SE KILX CWA IN EFFINGHAM/CLAY COUNTIES
SHORTLY AFTER 19Z/1PM. THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE CLUSTER HAS
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500J/KG AS PER
THE MOST RECENT SPC MESOANALYSIS. IN ADDITION, 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
HAS INCREASED TO 60-80KT ACROSS THIS AREA DUE TO A STRONG MID-
LEVEL JET STREAM FROM THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES EASTWARD INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THESE PARAMETERS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF THE
CONTINUED MAINTENANCE AND STRENGTHENING OF THE CONVECTION
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES CONTINUE TO
BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70 BETWEEN 1PM AND 5PM.
FURTHER NORTH, SCATTERED CELLS WILL FORM ALONG THE ADVANCING
OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. GIVEN WEAKER SHEAR AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WANING WITH
TIME, DO NOT THINK THESE STORMS WILL PROVIDE SUCH A ROBUST SEVERE
WEATHER RISK. WILL STILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SCATTERED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS NORTH OF I-70 THROUGH ABOUT 8PM BEFORE ALL ACTIVITY
LIFTS N/NE OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
BARNES
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
CURRENTLY, THERE IS A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL IL. TODAY A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, ORIGINATING IN COLORADO, WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MIDWEST, BRINGING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN IL. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. BEHIND THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SET UP AND MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
WE SET SOME RECORDS YESTERDAY FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES AND WILL HAVE A
CHANCE TO SET MORE POTENTIAL RECORD HIGHS TODAY. HIGHS NEARING 70
ARE FORECAST AGAIN TODAY. AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS EVENING,
TEMPERATURES ARE SET TO COOL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S. THE
LREF IS SHOWING A 50-80% CHANCE OF APPARENT TEMPERATURES LESS THAN
10 DEGREES ON SUNDAY MORNING WEST OF I-55 AND ALONG/WEST OF I-57 ON
MONDAY MORNING. THESE NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE
NEW WEEK WITH THEM WARMING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MID NEXT WEEK.
A COUPLE CELLS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE MAIN EVENT LATER
THIS MORNING AS THE CAMS WERE SUGGESTING. THESE SHOULD BE THE ONLY
ONES WE SEE THIS MORNING, BUT ANOTHER ISOLATED STORM MAY DEVELOP.
THEY HAVE BEEN ELEVATED, PRIMARILY POSING A HAIL THREAT. THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THESE STORMS SHOW LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0-7.5
C/KM AND MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG.
THE MAIN EVENT WITH TODAY ARRIVES LATER THIS MORNING. STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BEGIN MOVING INTO CENTRAL IL AROUND 16-18Z
TODAY AND EXIT THE EASTERN BORDER INTO INDIANA BY 00-03Z THIS
EVENING. STORM TYPE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE DISCRETE WITH SOME
SUPERCELLULAR ACTIVITY. AS THE STORMS START TO APPROACH FAR EASTERN
IL, IT MAY BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO A MORE LINEAR MODE, POTENTIALLY WITH
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. THE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS THIS AFTERNOON SHOW
MUCAPE VALUES OF 800-1300 J/KG AND BULK WIND SHEAR OF 40-60 KNOTS.
THERE IS 500-700 J/KG OF DCAPE ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THERE HAS
BEEN AN CONSISTENT UH SWATH DEPICTED IN THE CAMS ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR FOR MID AFTERNOON TODAY FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS.
INITIALLY WITH THE DISCRETE STORM TYPE, (NEAR) SEVERE HAIL AND
TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. AS THE EVENT EVOLVES INTO A
MORE LINEAR FASHION, A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP BEHIND
THE MAIN ACTIVITY IN THE EVENING. ALL HAZARDS ARE BEING WATCHED
WITH THIS EVENT. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5)
FOR AREAS EAST OF A PEORIA TO ST. LOUIS LINE FOR TODAY, WITH A 5%
TORNADO RISK, AND 15% HAIL/DAMAGING WIND RISK EAST OF I-55. WHILE
HEAVY RAIN MAY ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS, NO TRAINING IS ANTICIPATED
AND QPF IS LIMITED, SO NO FLOODING ISSUES ARE PROJECTED.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, WE COULD GET SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION AS THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW PASSES OVERHEAD TONIGHT. HOWEVER, AMOUNTS LOOK
TO REMAIN PRETTY MINIMAL WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS FALLING IN NORTHERN
IL. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE AREA AS THE LOW EXITS. WIND
GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE FORECAST. THERE IS A 50-80% CHANCE OF GUSTS
GREATER THAN 40 MPH BASED OFF THE HREF PROBABILITIES.
THE SYSTEM WE WERE WATCHING FOR THE WEEKEND HAS GONE AWAY. WE ARE
FORECAST TO SEE DRY WEATHER AFTER THIS SYSTEM EXITS TONIGHT THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
COPPLE
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 451 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
VARIOUS CEILING HEIGHTS ARE IMPACTING OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING,
RANGING FROM IFR (SPI, DEC), MVFR (CMI), AND VFR (PIA, BMI). PIA
AND BMI WILL JOIN THE MVFR FUN BRIEFLY THIS MORNING, ~15Z-18Z.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL IL LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE
STORMS INFLUENCED THE PROB30 GROUPS AT PIA AND BMI. THERE IS
BETTER CONFIDENCE IN STORMS IMPACTING THE OTHER 3 SITES LATER
TODAY.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE OUT OF THE WEST BY TONIGHT BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TODAY. THEY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING, BECOMING GUSTY (25-40 KNOTS) LATE IN THE
EVENING. THESE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE 12Z
PERIOD.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM, SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE NORTHERN
SITES, WHICH MAY DROP CEILING TO IFR BRIEFLY. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RULE MOST OF THE EVENING/NIGHT BUT WILL DECREASE
TO MVFR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
COPPLE
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY:
LOCATION WEDNESDAY THURSDAY
======== ========= =========
BLOOMINGTON 72 (2017) 70 (1930)
CHAMPAIGN 70 (2017) 68 (2017)
CHARLESTON 68 (1961) 72 (1930)
DECATUR 70 (1911) 66 (1930)
LINCOLN 67 (2017) 71 (1930)
OLNEY 72 (1961) 72 (1930)
PEORIA 68 (2017) 71 (1930)
SPRINGFIELD 68 (2017) 71 (2017)
GEELHART
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ILZ049>051.
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