053
FXUS63 KILX 200458
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1058 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SHELBYVILLE TO PARIS LINE WHERE THERE IS A
GREATER THAN 10% CHANCE FOR TORNADOES.
- STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
PEAK GUSTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 35-45MPH: HOWEVER, THERE IS
A 30-40% CHANCE OF GUSTS EXCEEDING 45MPH.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
20Z/2PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 995MB LOW EAST OF KANSAS
CITY...WITH A PRONOUNCED DRYLINE ARCING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
OZARKS. CONVECTION THAT FIRED AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IN THE SAINT
LOUIS METRO EARLIER TODAY HAS WEAKENED AS IT HAS TRACKED E/NE
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70 OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. STILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THESE CELLS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE
(1000-1500J/KG SBCAPES) AND HIGHLY SHEARED (0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF
60-80KT): HOWEVER, WEAK CAPPING/WARM AIR ALOFT HAS SO FAR KEPT THE
STORMS AT BAY. ONCE MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ARRIVES, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE ADVANCING DRYLINE BETWEEN 23Z/5PM AND
03Z/9PM. A TORNADO RISK WILL STILL BE PRESENT ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70
WHERE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS STRONGEST: HOWEVER, THE OVERALL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS WILL BE LESS DUE TO WEAKER SHEAR AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY
DECREASING AFTER SUNSET. THINK THE MAIN RISK FOR LOCATIONS NORTH
OF I-70 WILL BE SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH MID-EVENING
BEFORE THE CELLS LIFT E/NE OUT OF THE AREA. AFTER A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER LATER THIS EVENING, A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY WRAP
BACK INTO THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THE GENERAL TREND
HAS BEEN TO SHIFT THIS PRECIP AREA A BIT FURTHER N/NW THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. AS A RESULT, AM ONLY CARRYING 30-50 POPS
ALONG/NORTH OF A MACOMB TO MINONK LINE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE PRECIP
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT AND SURFACE TEMPS STAYING ABOVE
FREEZING UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK, LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.
ONCE THE DRYLINE PASSES, WINDS WILL VEER TO THE W/SW AND INCREASE
GREATLY LATER THIS EVENING TOWARD MIDNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE
RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING LOW SUGGEST GUSTS MAY BECOME
HIGHER THAN MODELS ARE ADVERTISING. 19Z HRRR INDICATES A SWATH OF
35-45MPH GUSTS ADVANCING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS ALONG/WEST
OF I-57 LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION, THE
12Z HREF SHOWS A 30-40% CHANCE OF GUSTS EXCEEDING 45MPH. GIVEN
THE CLEAR SIGNAL FOR STRONG WINDS, HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
GUSTS OF 35-45MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS REACHING 50MPH. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL LIFT INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND THE GREAT LAKES BY
MID-MORNING FRIDAY:HOWEVER, GUSTS OF OVER 30MPH WILL REMAIN COMMON
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 30S IN THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY TO THE UPPER 30S NEAR
THE INDIANA BORDER. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTH OF THE PEORIA AREA TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH OF I-70.
BARNES
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
AFTER A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL DAY ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S, A RE-ENFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL
DROP READINGS BACK BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE/EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
PATTERN THAT WILL ENSURE THE RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE TEMPS FOR
A COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND
THINGS WARM BACK UP BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S, BUT
WILL BOUNCE BACK WELL INTO THE 50S BY NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
BARNES
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
SE WINDS AT 10-15KT WILL VEER TO W/SW AND INCREASE MARKEDLY LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR/RAP,
GUSTS OF 35-40KT WILL ARRIVE AT KPIA/KSPI BY 06Z...THEN FURTHER
NORTHEAST AT KCMI BY 07Z/08Z. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO W/NW AND
ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH GUSTS
DROPPING BELOW 30KT BY AFTERNOON. AFTER A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AFTER FROPA LATER THIS EVENING, LOW CLOUDS
WILL SPILL BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. HRRR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MVFR RETURNING BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z.
AFTER THAT, CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE SLOWLY SCATTERING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
TOWARD MIDDAY.
MJA/BARNES
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>056-061.
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