977
FXUS63 KILX 200758
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
158 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING IN
AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 74. PEAK GUSTS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 35-45MPH.
- COLD AND BLUSTERY WEATHER WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH SINGLE-
DIGIT WIND CHILL VALUES BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
- THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE
MID- MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
(THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
*** SHORT-TERM FORECAST (TODAY - SATURDAY NIGHT) ***
BRISK, OVERCAST CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING, DRIVEN BY A
SURFACE LOW PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH MID-MORNING DUE TO POTENTIAL SPORADIC GUSTS OF
35-45 MPH. THIS IS CAUSED BY STRONG COLD AIR MOVING IN, PROMOTING
STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT CAN BRING DOWN STRONGER
WINDS (40-50 KTS) FROM THE LOW-LEVEL JET (LLJ).
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND BREAK ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE SETS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WHILE IMPROVED SUNSHINE MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 40
DEGREES, THE WEST WINDS, ALTHOUGH DIMINISHING, WILL KEEP IT
FEELING RAW, WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S.
DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
*** COLDER SNAP (SATURDAY NIGHT - MONDAY MORNING) ***
CONDITIONS WILL TURN COLDER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
DROPPING INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA/ONTARIO AND A STRENGTHENING
NOR'EASTER MOVING UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. STIFF NORTHWEST WINDS
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL PUSH OVERNIGHT WIND CHILL VALUES INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
*** WARMING TREND (MONDAY - WEDNESDAY) ***
RAPID RISES IN MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY AS A BROAD
RIDGE AXIS PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. THIS PATTERN WILL
INITIATE A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. COMPRESSIONAL WARMING FROM DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE ROCKIES
WILL ADVECT MUCH WARMER AIR INTO THE MIDWEST. LATEST NBM GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S BY TUESDAY AND THE LOWER 50S
BY WEDNESDAY.
*** NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM (WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY) ***
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, PUSHING
A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA. THIS IS THE TIMEFRAME FOR OUR
NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER-MAKER. CURRENT NBM GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SHOWS
A MUTED PRECIPITATION (QPF) SIGNAL FOR MUCH OF ILLINOIS, BUT THIS
COULD BE ARTIFICIALLY TOO LOW DUE TO THE CURRENT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DISCREPANCIES AMONG VARIOUS MODELS.
*** LATE NEXT WEEK OUTLOOK ***
DRY WEATHER AND TYPICAL LATE FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING MID-WEEK STORM SYSTEM.
MJA
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
SE WINDS AT 10-15KT WILL VEER TO W/SW AND INCREASE MARKEDLY LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR/RAP,
GUSTS OF 35-40KT WILL ARRIVE AT KPIA/KSPI BY 06Z...THEN FURTHER
NORTHEAST AT KCMI BY 07Z/08Z. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO W/NW AND
ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH GUSTS
DROPPING BELOW 30KT BY AFTERNOON. AFTER A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AFTER FROPA LATER THIS EVENING, LOW CLOUDS
WILL SPILL BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. HRRR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MVFR RETURNING BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z.
AFTER THAT, CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE SLOWLY SCATTERING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
TOWARD MIDDAY.
MJA/BARNES
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>056-061.
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