613
FXUS63 KILX 201739
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1139 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TOWARD SUNSET.
- COLD AND BLUSTERY WEATHER WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH SINGLE-
DIGIT WIND CHILL VALUES BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
*** SHORT-TERM FORECAST (TODAY - SATURDAY NIGHT) ***
BRISK, OVERCAST CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING, DRIVEN BY A
SURFACE LOW PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH MID-MORNING DUE TO POTENTIAL SPORADIC GUSTS OF
35-45 MPH. THIS IS CAUSED BY STRONG COLD AIR MOVING IN, PROMOTING
STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT CAN BRING DOWN STRONGER
WINDS (40-50 KTS) FROM THE LOW-LEVEL JET (LLJ).
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND BREAK ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE SETS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WHILE IMPROVED SUNSHINE MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 40
DEGREES, THE WEST WINDS, ALTHOUGH DIMINISHING, WILL KEEP IT
FEELING RAW, WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S.
DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
*** COLDER SNAP (SATURDAY NIGHT - MONDAY MORNING) ***
CONDITIONS WILL TURN COLDER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
DROPPING INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA/ONTARIO AND A STRENGTHENING
NOR'EASTER MOVING UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. STIFF NORTHWEST WINDS
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL PUSH OVERNIGHT WIND CHILL VALUES INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
*** WARMING TREND (MONDAY - WEDNESDAY) ***
RAPID RISES IN MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY AS A BROAD
RIDGE AXIS PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. THIS PATTERN WILL
INITIATE A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. COMPRESSIONAL WARMING FROM DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE ROCKIES
WILL ADVECT MUCH WARMER AIR INTO THE MIDWEST. LATEST NBM GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S BY TUESDAY AND THE LOWER 50S
BY WEDNESDAY.
*** NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM (WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY) ***
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, PUSHING
A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA. THIS IS THE TIMEFRAME FOR OUR
NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER-MAKER. CURRENT NBM GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SHOWS
A MUTED PRECIPITATION (QPF) SIGNAL FOR MUCH OF ILLINOIS, BUT THIS
COULD BE ARTIFICIALLY TOO LOW DUE TO THE CURRENT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DISCREPANCIES AMONG VARIOUS MODELS.
*** LATE NEXT WEEK OUTLOOK ***
DRY WEATHER AND TYPICAL LATE FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING MID-WEEK STORM SYSTEM.
MJA
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
LOW CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY ERODE ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS LATE THIS MORNING: HOWEVER, SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
DIURNAL RE-DEVELOPMENT IN AREAS THAT HAVE PARTIALLY CLEARED. THE
END RESULT WILL BE A SLOWER LOSS OF THE MVFR CEILINGS THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...PARTICULARLY AT KPIA/KBMI WHERE THE
OVERCAST REMAINS THICKEST. GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS, HAVE OPTED TO
SCATTER CEILINGS AT THE I-72 TERMINALS BY 20Z...THEN FURTHER NORTH
TO KPIA AND KBMI BY 21Z. AFTER A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING, A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SPREAD
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CEILINGS BETWEEN 8,000
AND 12,000FT ARRIVING AT KSPI BY AROUND 06Z, THEN FURTHER
NORTHEAST TO KCMI BY ABOUT 09Z. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE WESTERLY
WITH GUSTS OF 25-35KT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
EASES, THE GUSTINESS WILL DIMINISH BEFORE SUNSET...FOLLOWED BY
W/NW WINDS DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10KT THIS EVENING.
BARNES
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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