514
FXUS63 KILX 210404
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1004 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A CHILLY WEEKEND IS IN STORE WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE TEENS. WIND-CHILL VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.
- AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FEW SNOW FLURRIES TO
PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS A
VERY LOW PROBABILITY (10-20% CHANCE) FOR MEASURABLE SNOWFALL ALONG
AND NORTHEAST OF A RANTOUL TO DANVILLE LINE.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
THE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS THAT HAVE PERSISTED SINCE LAST NIGHT
WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND
WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10MPH BY MID TO LATE EVENING. GIVEN
DECREASING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES, LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
BE COLDER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN IN AWHILE...WITH MOST LOCATIONS
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
EVIDENT ON 19Z/1PM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER COLORADO/NEW MEXICO
WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND SPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. NAM/RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE BOARD AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH THE
CLOUDS THEN REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE
WAVE TRACKS SOUTH OF ILLINOIS. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN SYNOPTIC
LIFT, THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL REMAIN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY
PRECIP. THANKS TO THE CLOUD COVER AND NW WINDS OF 10-15MPH, HIGHS
ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S...WITH LOWER
40S SOUTH OF I-70.
BARNES
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
AS A PROMINENT UPPER LOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES,
THE FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC ACROSS ILLINOIS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. 12Z FEB 20 MODELS ALL SHOW A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AROUND THE LOW, WHICH IN TURN GENERATES
ENOUGH SYNOPTIC LIFT TO TRIGGER A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHEAST ILLINOIS INTO INDIANA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
WHILE MODELS DO NOT YET FEATURE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS THE
KILX CWA, THE 12Z HREF SHOWS A 10-20% CHANCE OF GREATER THAN 0.1
SNOWFALL ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A RANTOUL TO DANVILLE LINE. GIVEN
THE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC SET-UP, THINK IT IS WISE TO MENTION SNOW
FLURRIES ALONG/NORTHEAST OF A PEORIA TO PARIS LINE. WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE WAVE AND FUTURE MODEL
RUNS...AND MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BUMP UP POPS ACROSS THE E/NE
COUNTIES.
ASIDE FROM THE SNOW FLURRIES, THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE THE BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. NW WINDS OF 10-15MPH WILL BE
COMMON ON SATURDAY, BUT THEY WILL INCREASE TO 15-20MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30MPH ON SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ON SUNDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS. WIND-CHILL VALUES
WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL BOTTOM
OUT NEAR ZERO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
AFTER ONE MORE COLD DAY ON MONDAY, THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW WILL
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RISE ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
AS A RESULT, HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY, THEN WELL
INTO THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL MATERIALIZE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
STORM SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH THE
REGION. MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY AT THAT TIME RANGE: HOWEVER,
CONSENSUS IS BEGINNING TO FOCUS FROPA DURING THE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT TIME FRAME. HAVE ADDED 20-40 POPS ACCORDINGLY.
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES, TEMPS WILL COOL BACK INTO THE 40S ON
THURSDAY.
BARNES
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1004 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
VFR SKIES THIS CYCLE WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING TONIGHT,
THEN LOWERING TO 5-8K FT BASES ON SATURDAY. WNW WINDS UNDER 10 KT
TONIGHT, THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDDAY SATURDAY WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 KT FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
25
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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