050
FXUS63 KILX 210652
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1252 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A CHILLY WEEKEND IS IN STORE WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE TEENS. WIND-CHILL VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BOTH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
- AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FEW SNOW FLURRIES TO
PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY (10-30% CHANCE) FOR MEASURABLE SNOWFALL ALONG AND
NORTHEAST OF A BLOOMINGTON TO PARIS LINE.
DISCUSSION
(THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON FLURRIES. EARLY THIS MORNING, MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE PLAINS.
SHORT-TERM MODELS AGREE THIS FEATURE WILL CROSS THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MIDDAY.
HOWEVER, THE 00Z RAOB INDICATES VERY DRY AIR AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT SURFACE PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON
AS MUCH OF THE SYSTEM'S ENERGY WILL BE USED TO MOISTEN THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. NEVERTHELESS, FLURRIES HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN
THE FORECAST AS A SAFEGUARD AGAINST THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATING MORE
EFFICIENTLY THAN MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST. EVEN WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 30S, THE SURFACE WET-BULB
TEMPERATURE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW IF
PRECIPITATION DOES REACH THE GROUND.
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES, A SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO PHASE OR
CONSOLIDATE WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
CONSOLIDATION, COMBINED WITH ANOMALOUS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A DEVELOPING NOR'EASTER, WILL CAUSE THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RAPIDLY TIGHTEN. CONSEQUENTLY, WINDS
WILL INCREASE. SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST AND
EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC
ASCENT NEAR THE UPPER LOW, WITH LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES POTENTIALLY
ADDING TO THE SNOW CHANCES IN THAT AREA. HOWEVER, THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WILL BE THE RETURN OF SINGLE-DIGIT WIND CHILL
VALUES OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE FEBRUARY ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH DAILY AVERAGES EXPECTED TO BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 30 DEGREES, AND LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS.
HOWEVER, A RAPID SHIFT TOWARD MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
MONDAY NIGHT. A BROAD RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S., CAUSING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS TO INCREASE QUICKLY. THIS PATTERN
WILL USHER IN A NOTABLE WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. WARMER AIR WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE MIDWEST, AIDED BY
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING FROM DOWN SLOPE FLOW OFF THE ROCKIES. THE
LATEST NBM GUIDANCE PREDICTS AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S BY TUESDAY
AND CLIMBING INTO THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, CAUSING MID-
LEVEL HEIGHTS TO FALL FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS IS THE
PERIOD WHEN OUR NEXT POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION EVENT IS ANTICIPATED.
CURRENTLY, THE NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAK QPF SIGNAL ACROSS
MUCH OF ILLINOIS, BUT THIS MAY BE AN ARTIFICIALLY LOW PROJECTION
DUE TO INCONSISTENCIES IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE STORM
TRACK ACROSS THE VARIOUS MODELS.
QUIET AND MILD WEATHER WILL RETURN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING MID-WEEK
STORM SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE
SQUARELY IN THE 50S.
MJA
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1004 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
VFR SKIES THIS CYCLE WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING TONIGHT,
THEN LOWERING TO 5-8K FT BASES ON SATURDAY. WNW WINDS UNDER 10 KT
TONIGHT, THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDDAY SATURDAY WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 KT FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
25
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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