960
FXUS63 KILX 011816
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1216 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A RUSHVILLE TO PARIS LINE...WITH A NARROW RIBBON OF
POTENTIALLY UP TO 3 INCHES ALONG A JACKSONVILLE TO MATTOON LINE.
- STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER (GREATER THAN A 15% CHANCE) WILL
FOCUS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE OZARKS.
- BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS
OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z MAR 1 LREF INDICATES A 50-70% CHANCE
OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN FROM TODAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY
MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF A QUINCY TO BLOOMINGTON LINE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
..WEATHER SYNOPSIS
09Z/3AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1036MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM KENTUCKY SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. ALOFT...A DEEP
LOW REMAINS ANCHORED OVER HUDSON BAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND
THIS FEATURE FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST. MEANWHILE A
SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH HAS EJECTED EASTWARD FROM AN UPPER LOW
OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND IS NOW TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN.
..WINTRY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
AS THE GREAT BASIN SHORT-WAVE RIPPLES EASTWARD, IT WILL INTERACT
WITH THE STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE TO TRIGGER AN AREA OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. 00Z/06Z CAMS SHOW
THIS PRECIP SPILLING INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS EVENING, THEN
FURTHER EAST TO THE INDIANA BORDER SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS HAD
BEEN NOTED BY THE PAST SEVERAL SYNOPTIC MODEL RUNS, IT APPEARS THE
STRONGEST LIFT AND THUS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL
FOCUS SOUTH OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INITIALLY
INDICATE A VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER: HOWEVER, AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES UPON APPROACH OF THE WAVE, TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WILL
ALLOW LIGHT PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SNOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE:
HOWEVER, SOME SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX WITH THE SNOW
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70 AFTER MIDNIGHT. BASED ON PROJECTED QPF FROM
WPC, MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A RUSHVILLE TO PARIS LINE
WILL SEE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WHILE THERE
IS NOT A COMPLETELY CLEAR SIGNAL, AM CONCERNED FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF A NARROW CORRIDOR OF HIGHER AMOUNTS JUST NORTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR. WHILE AN UNFAVORABLY DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE
START OF THE EVENT, FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN COMBINATION WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES CLIMBING INTO THE 3-4G/KG RANGE OVERNIGHT
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 3 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS. THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THIS HEAVIER BAND REMAINS IN QUESTION...WITH THE
00Z/06Z HRRR FAVORING LOCATIONS NEAR I-70 AND THE 00Z NAM FURTHER
NORTH TOWARD I-72. AT THIS POINT, WILL TAKE A MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD
CONSENSUS AND FOCUS THE POTENTIALLY HIGHER TOTALS ALONG A
JACKSONVILLE TO MATTOON LINE. NO MATTER THE EXACT AMOUNTS,
SLIPPERY/WET ROAD CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE EVERYWHERE SOUTH OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR.
..STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OHIO
RIVER VALLEY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF WAVES INTERACT WITH THE
STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE WITHIN THE W/SW UPPER FLOW REGIME. MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING A STRONGER WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED STRONG/SEVERE WEATHER RISK REMAINS SOMEWHAT
IN QUESTION, A CLEAR SIGNAL FOR CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING. WHILE
THE 00Z ECMWF IS 24 HOURS SLOWER WITH THE SYSTEM, THE GFS SHOWS A
1006MB LOW LIFTING INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY 00Z THU. THE
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE LOW IS PROGGED TO BE MODESTLY UNSTABLE
(SBCAPE 600-800J/KG) AND STRONGLY SHEARED (0-6KM BULK SHEAR
50-60KT)...SO THE FUEL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT.
IT APPEARS THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM MAY BE A BIT TOO SLOW TO
FAVOR STRONG STORMS THIS FAR EAST...INSTEAD FOCUSING THE GREATEST
RISK FURTHER UPSTREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS PER THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOKS.
HOWEVER, THE MOST RECENT NSSL ALGORITHM INDICATES A 15-30% CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXTENDING FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA NORTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...INCLUDING LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE
I-72 CORRIDOR. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER DETAILS AS THE SITUATION
BECOMES CLEARER OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES.
..BENEFICIAL RAINFALL NEXT WEEK
WHILE THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK REMAINS UNCERTAIN, CONFIDENCE IS
GROWING THAT WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS NEXT WEEK. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FEATURE
FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER W/SW FLOW, AMPLE NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FROM THE GULF, AND A SERIES OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS INTERACTING
WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE END RESULT WILL BE
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. WHILE MODEL
QPF FIELDS VARY, ALL SOLUTIONS ARE POINTING TO MUCH-NEEDED RAIN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACT
TOTALS:HOWEVER, THE 00Z LREF INDICATES A NEARLY 100% CHANCE OF
GREATER THAN 1 INCH ACROSS THE ENTIRE KILX CWA THROUGH NEXT
SUNDAY MORNING...AND A 50-70% OF MORE THAN 2 INCHES ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A QUINCY TO BLOOMINGTON LINE.
BARNES
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES TO START, THOUGH
CMI IS STILL SEEING SOME CIGS BELOW 2KFT AT THE MOMENT...BUT THAT
SHOULD BE GONE BY NEXT HOUR. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE
FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS AT ALL SITES. LIGHT SNOW WILL
MOVE OVER THE SITES DURING THE EVENING HOURS. PIA AND BMI WILL SEE
LIGHT SNOW FOR ABOUT 6HRS, BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. SPI AND
DEC WILL SEE CIGS AND VIS DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT, REACHING IFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE
SNOW. BOTH SITES WILL HAVE MVFR CIGS INTO THE MORNING HOURS BELOW
2KFT. CMI WILL SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD BUT
COULD SEE BKN CIGS AROUND 2.5KFT WHEN ITS SNOWING OVERNIGHT AND
HAVE A PROB30 GROUP FOR THAT. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS OF 9-14KTS.
AUTEN
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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