010
FXUS63 KILX 012036
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
236 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A RUSHVILLE TO PARIS LINE...WITH A NARROW RIBBON OF
POTENTIALLY UP TO 2 INCHES ALONG A JACKSONVILLE TO MATTOON LINE.
A LIGHT GLAZING IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS.
- STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY.
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER (GREATER THAN A 15%
CHANCE) WILL FOCUS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO MISSOURI.
- BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS
OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z MAR 1 LREF INDICATES A 50-70% CHANCE
OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN FROM TODAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A QUINCY TO BLOOMINGTON LINE.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA DOMINATES THE WEATHER ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND A LARGE PART OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST US.
THIS HAS KEPT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH HAS
KEPT DEWPOINTS QUITE LOW TODAY. THIS WILL WORK AGAINST ANY PRECIP
STARTING THIS EVENING AS A WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SPREADS PRECIP ACROSS THE MIDWEST. P-TYPE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
WILL PRIMARILY BE SNOW, BUT MODEL GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT A SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW RIBBON OF BANDED SNOW SOUTH OF A
JACKSONVILLE TO MATTOON LINE LATER TONIGHT. THERE IS A 50-70%
CHANCE OF SNOW TOTALS BEING OVER 1.5 INCHES, SO BELIEVE AMOUNTS
WILL HOVER AROUND THE 1 INCH MARK OVER MOST OF THE AREA, BUT SOME
HIGHER TOTALS PUSHING CLOSE TO 2 INCHES IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW, MODEL AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS IN
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN
AND/OR SLEET MIXING WITH THE SNOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF JACKSONVILLE
TO TERRE HAUTE, IN LINE. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A 40-60% CHANCE
OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS OVER A TRACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.
HOWEVER, GROUND TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST IL ARE IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 40S AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY ICE ACCUMULATION LATE
TONIGHT. WINTER IMPACTS SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED GIVEN THE GROUND
TEMPS, BUT SOME POSSIBLE SLICK SPOTS COULD BE AROUND, ESPECIALLY
ON ELEVATED SURFACES. AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING TO COVER THE POSSIBLE MINOR IMPACTS.
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DROP TO BELOW FREEZING, BUT SHOULD QUICKLY RISE
TO ABOVE FREEZING 2-3 HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
AFTER TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING, DRY WEATHER SHOULD OCCUR THE REST
OF MONDAY WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THE DRY
WEATHER WILL NOT LAST LONG AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND WILL BE THE FIRST OF SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
STORMS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.
AUTEN
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OUT WEST WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
SETTING UP OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO MULTIPLE WAVES OF
PRECIP MOVING OVER THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. THOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE RAIN,
THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE 60-80% THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A
50-70% PROBABILITY OF SEEING OVER 2 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.
WITH THIS PRECIP COMING IN MULTIPLE WAVES AND THE GROUND NOT BEING
FROZEN, THE RAINFALL SHOULD SOAK INTO THE GROUND EASILY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK, BUT STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN
FRIDAY AS A COUPLE OF STRONGER WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOWS
TRACK INTO THE REGION. WHILE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED STRONG/SEVERE WEATHER RISK REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION,
A CLEAR SIGNAL FOR CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING. WHILE THE MODELS
DIFFER ON THE SPEED/TIMING OF THE SYSTEMS, THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD
OF THE LOWS IS PROGGED TO BE MODESTLY UNSTABLE (SBCAPE
600-800J/KG) AND STRONGLY SHEARED (0-6KM BULK SHEAR 50-60KT), SO
THE FUEL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT. CURRENT
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE STRONGEST/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SOUTHWEST OF
THE CWA BOTH DAYS. HOWEVER, SOME MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE SHOWS
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES EXTENDING INTO PART OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL IL BOTH DAYS. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER DETAILS AS THE SITUATION
BECOMES CLEARER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AUTEN
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES TO START, THOUGH
CMI IS STILL SEEING SOME CIGS BELOW 2KFT AT THE MOMENT...BUT THAT
SHOULD BE GONE BY NEXT HOUR. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE
FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS AT ALL SITES. LIGHT SNOW WILL
MOVE OVER THE SITES DURING THE EVENING HOURS. PIA AND BMI WILL SEE
LIGHT SNOW FOR ABOUT 6HRS, BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. SPI AND
DEC WILL SEE CIGS AND VIS DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT, REACHING IFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE
SNOW. BOTH SITES WILL HAVE MVFR CIGS INTO THE MORNING HOURS BELOW
2KFT. CMI WILL SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD BUT
COULD SEE BKN CIGS AROUND 2.5KFT WHEN ITS SNOWING OVERNIGHT AND
HAVE A PROB30 GROUP FOR THAT. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS OF 9-14KTS.
AUTEN
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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