719
FXUS63 KILX 020342
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
942 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A RUSHVILLE TO PARIS LINE...WITH A NARROW RIBBON OF
POTENTIALLY UP TO 2 INCHES ALONG A JACKSONVILLE TO MATTOON LINE.
A LIGHT GLAZING IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS.
- STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY.
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER (GREATER THAN A 15%
CHANCE) WILL FOCUS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO MISSOURI.
- BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS
OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z MAR 1 LREF INDICATES A 50-70% CHANCE
OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN FROM TODAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A QUINCY TO BLOOMINGTON LINE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 810 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK REGARDING SNOW AND LIGHT MIXED PRECIP
TONIGHT. DRY AIR BELOW THE 700 MB LEVEL WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO
SATURATE, BUT AFTER IT DOES LATER THIS EVENING SNOW WILL QUICKLY
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. BASED ON LATEST HIGH-
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE, STILL APPEARS THE "HEAVIER" BAND OF F-GEN
SNOW (1" TO LOCALLY 2") STRETCHES FROM ABOUT JACKSONVILLE EAST TO
PARIS AND ABOUT 1 COUNTY NORTH AND SOUTH OF THIS LINE. AGAIN, THIS
WILL BE A WET SNOW AND WITH AMBIENT AND GROUND TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW WILL MELT
ON CONTACT WITH ROADWAYS. EXCEPTION WOULD BE IN ISOLATED MORE
INTENSE SNOW BANDS WHERE VISIBILITY COULD BRIEFLY DROP DOWN TO
AROUND 1/2 MILE, A QUICK ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY ON
BRIDGES/OVERPASSES. MODELS SHOW A TREND DOWN IN CLOUD ICE TOWARD
THE END OF THE EVENT, SO MAINTAINED A 20-30% CHANCE OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN FOR PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL TO SE IL LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY MORNING, BEFORE PRECIP EXITS OR TURNS TO RAIN. THIS
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE NON-IMPACTFUL WITH ONLY TRACE TO 0.01"
AMOUNTS FORECAST ON ELEVATED SURFACES. FOR THESE REASONS WILL
LEAVE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IN EFFECT FOR AFFECTED AREAS
THROUGH TONIGHT.
25
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA DOMINATES THE WEATHER ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND A LARGE PART OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST US.
THIS HAS KEPT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH HAS
KEPT DEWPOINTS QUITE LOW TODAY. THIS WILL WORK AGAINST ANY PRECIP
STARTING THIS EVENING AS A WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SPREADS PRECIP ACROSS THE MIDWEST. P-TYPE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
WILL PRIMARILY BE SNOW, BUT MODEL GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT A SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW RIBBON OF BANDED SNOW SOUTH OF A
JACKSONVILLE TO MATTOON LINE LATER TONIGHT. THERE IS A 50-70%
CHANCE OF SNOW TOTALS BEING OVER 1.5 INCHES, SO BELIEVE AMOUNTS
WILL HOVER AROUND THE 1 INCH MARK OVER MOST OF THE AREA, BUT SOME
HIGHER TOTALS PUSHING CLOSE TO 2 INCHES IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW, MODEL AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS IN
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN
AND/OR SLEET MIXING WITH THE SNOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF JACKSONVILLE
TO TERRE HAUTE, IN LINE. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A 40-60% CHANCE
OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS OVER A TRACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.
HOWEVER, GROUND TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST IL ARE IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 40S AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY ICE ACCUMULATION LATE
TONIGHT. WINTER IMPACTS SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED GIVEN THE GROUND
TEMPS, BUT SOME POSSIBLE SLICK SPOTS COULD BE AROUND, ESPECIALLY
ON ELEVATED SURFACES. AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING TO COVER THE POSSIBLE MINOR IMPACTS.
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DROP TO BELOW FREEZING, BUT SHOULD QUICKLY RISE
TO ABOVE FREEZING 2-3 HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
AFTER TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING, DRY WEATHER SHOULD OCCUR THE REST
OF MONDAY WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THE DRY
WEATHER WILL NOT LAST LONG AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND WILL BE THE FIRST OF SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
STORMS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.
AUTEN
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OUT WEST WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
SETTING UP OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO MULTIPLE WAVES OF
PRECIP MOVING OVER THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. THOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE RAIN,
THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE 60-80% THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A
50-70% PROBABILITY OF SEEING OVER 2 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.
WITH THIS PRECIP COMING IN MULTIPLE WAVES AND THE GROUND NOT BEING
FROZEN, THE RAINFALL SHOULD SOAK INTO THE GROUND EASILY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK, BUT STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN
FRIDAY AS A COUPLE OF STRONGER WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOWS
TRACK INTO THE REGION. WHILE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED STRONG/SEVERE WEATHER RISK REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION,
A CLEAR SIGNAL FOR CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING. WHILE THE MODELS
DIFFER ON THE SPEED/TIMING OF THE SYSTEMS, THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD
OF THE LOWS IS PROGGED TO BE MODESTLY UNSTABLE (SBCAPE
600-800J/KG) AND STRONGLY SHEARED (0-6KM BULK SHEAR 50-60KT), SO
THE FUEL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT. CURRENT
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE STRONGEST/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SOUTHWEST OF
THE CWA BOTH DAYS. HOWEVER, SOME MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE SHOWS
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES EXTENDING INTO PART OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL IL BOTH DAYS. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER DETAILS AS THE SITUATION
BECOMES CLEARER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AUTEN
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 942 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE SPI-DEC-CMI AND POSSIBLY BMI TERMINALS
SOON, AND END PRIOR TO SUNRISE. MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY FOR THE
BULK OF THE EVENT WITH IFR VISIBILITY IN -SN. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A 1-3 HOUR PERIOD THAT VISIBILITY DROPS TO LIFR IN BRIEF HEAVIER
SNOW BANDS NEAR THE I-72 CORRIDOR. AFTER THE SNOW ENDS, IFR
CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST AT KSPI-KDEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING,
WITH MVFR AT KBMI-KCMI. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF
KPIA, BUT IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL WITH -SN AND MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY JUST SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL. WINDS WILL BE STEADY THROUGH
THE PERIOD, ENE/E AT 10-12 KT.
25
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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