445
FXUS63 KILX 021145
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
545 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS ON TAP THIS WEEK. THE 00Z MAR 2 LREF
INDICATES A 50-70% CHANCE OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN FROM
TODAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
RUSHVILLE TO RANTOUL LINE.
- STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER (GREATER THAN A 15% CHANCE) WILL
FOCUS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE OZARKS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
..WEATHER SYNOPSIS
08Z/2AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1038MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO...WHILE A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. ALOFT...A ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH AN UPPER LOW SPINNING
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/SOUTHERN OREGON. A SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW IS TRACKING ACROSS MISSOURI AND
HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS SINCE LATE LAST EVENING.
..WINTRY PRECIPITATION ENDS THIS MORNING
0830Z/230AM RADAR IMAGERY AND AREA OBS INDICATE THE BACK EDGE OF
THE WINTRY PRECIP IS ALONG THE I-55 CORRIDOR AND ADVANCING
STEADILY EASTWARD. THE PRECIP HAS BEEN A MIX OF RAIN, SLEET, AND
SNOW WITH ONLY MINOR SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATIONS NOTED. JUST A COUPLE
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SLEET/SNOW HAS FALLEN AT NWS LINCOLN WHILE A
REPORT OF 1.4 INCHES WAS OBSERVED FURTHER SOUTH IN DAWSON IN
SANGAMON COUNTY. BASED ON AREA WEBCAMS, IT APPEARS THE SNOW/SLEET
HAS LARGELY BEEN MELTING ON CONTACT WITH ROAD SURFACES: HOWEVER,
MOTORISTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR A FEW SLICK SPOTS DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE...ESPECIALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-72 AND EAST OF I-55.
BASED ON RADAR TIMING TOOLS AND THE LATEST HRRR/RAP FORECAST,
THINK A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG/SOUTH OF A PARIS TO
TAYLORVILLE LINE BY DAYBREAK BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF TOWARD
MIDDAY.
..BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THIS WEEK
AFTER A LATE FALL AND WINTER DOMINATED BY W/NW FLOW, A MAJOR
PATTERN CHANGE WILL BRING W/SW FLOW TO THE MIDWEST/OHIO RIVER
VALLEY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS. THIS WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS
RAIN CHANCES AND INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL
FINALLY BEGIN TO SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT OF THE ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. WITH A SERIES OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS RIPPLING EASTWARD
AND AMPLE GULF MOISTURE POISED JUST UPSTREAM, AN UNSETTLED PERIOD
IS IN STORE FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. AS THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW APPROACHES, IT WILL HELP PULL THE
STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE
TONIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS.
ADDITIONAL SHORT-WAVE ENERGY INTERACTING WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS AS THE
CLOUD-BEARING WINDS REMAIN PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. AS A RESULT, WPC
HAS HIGHLIGHTED ALL OF CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS WITH A MARGINAL
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT, SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING MORE
SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. FURTHER OUT IN THE EXTENDED, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY SWEEP THROUGH THE MIDWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE
THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL IN QUESTION, IT APPEARS
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING BEFORE COOLER/DRIER WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
00Z MAR 2 LREF INDICATES A NEARLY 100% CHANCE OF GREATER THAN 1
INCH OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE KILX CWA FROM TODAY THROUGH NEXT
SUNDAY MORNING...AND A 50-70% CHANCE OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES
ALONG/SOUTH OF A RUSHVILLE TO RANTOUL LINE.
..STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
00Z MAR 2 MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST BY MID-WEEK.
THE GFS HAS SLOWED THE SYSTEM FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUNS WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS QUICKENED IT A BIT...WITH CONSENSUS TAKING THE LOW
THROUGH THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THE PERSISTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED ACROSS
THE HEART OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON WEDNESDAY, AND AS SHORT-WAVE
ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST, CONVECTION WILL RE-DEVELOP
ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AS HAS BEEN SEEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES, THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL COINCIDE FURTHER UPSTREAM
FROM EASTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA INTO THE OZARKS DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS WHERE SPC HAS UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. FURTHER NORTHEAST, INSTABILITY WILL BE LESSER
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS (MUCAPE 200-400J/KG): HOWEVER, SHEAR WILL
BE STRONG (0-6KM BULK SHEAR 40-50KT). THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT
IN A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORM CELLS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL/WIND GUSTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-72 WEDNESDAY EVENING. BY THE
TIME THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL WANE AND THE SEVERE
RISK WILL DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY.
BARNES
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
11Z/5AM OBS SHOW IFR CEILINGS AT KSPI/KDEC AND MVFR FURTHER NORTH
AT THE I-74 TERMINALS. WHILE THE LOW CLOUD COVER IS WIDESPREAD
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS, SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS/NORTHWEST INDIANA. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW FROM THE
E/NE, WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON KCMI/KBMI AS THERE IS A CHANCE
THOSE SITES COULD RISE TO VFR LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE THE FLOW
GRADUALLY VEERS TO E/SE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHER WEST,
HRRR/RAP SUGGESTS KSPI WILL BE LOCKED IN WITH IFR CEILINGS PERHAPS
BRIEFLY IMPROVING TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. AS WINDS BECOME E/SE,
ANY TEMPORARY CEILING IMPROVEMENT WILL BE ERASED AS THE VERY LOW
OVERCAST RETURNS TONIGHT. LATEST CAMS TEND TO KEEP MOST OF THE
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT JUST S/SW OF THE
TAF SITES LATE IN THE PERIOD, BUT HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE VCSH AT
BOTH KSPI AND KDEC AFTER 08Z/09Z.
BARNES
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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