811
FXUS63 KILX 031152
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
552 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS ON TAP THIS WEEK. THE 12Z MAR 2 LREF
INDICATES A 50-70% CHANCE OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN FROM
TODAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
JACKSONVILLE TO DANVILLE LINE.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (5-15% CHANCE) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL.
- ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER RISK MAY MATERIALIZE LATE FRIDAY. AT THIS
TIME, THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE ARE FOCUSED WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
..WEATHER SYNOPSIS
08Z/2AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW
ENGLAND WESTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM GEORGIA TO EASTERN COLORADO. ALOFT...A
VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
THE ROCKIES. A LEAD WAVE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE HAS INTERACTED WITH
THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO TRIGGER A BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS
MISSOURI INTO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...SOUTH OF A KIRKSVILLE, MISSOURI
TO LITCHFIELD, ILLINOIS LINE.
..BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THIS WEEK
THE MUCH ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY AND WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS THIS WEEK. THE WETTEST PERIODS WILL FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT, WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.
WHILE FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER W/SW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AND AMPLE
GULF MOISTURE WILL BE FLOWING NORTHWARD, THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS HAS BEEN SHIFTING SLIGHTLY FURTHER
SOUTHWARD WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN. THE 12Z MAR 2 LREF NOW
INDICATES A NEARLY 100% CHANCE OF GREATER THAN 1 INCH OF RAIN
FROM NOW THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ALONG/SOUTH OF I-72, BUT THE
PROBABILITIES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 50-70% RANGE ALONG AND NORTH
OF A MACOMB TO BLOOMINGTON LINE. THE CHANCES FOR MORE THAN 2
INCHES ARE STILL HIGH (50-70%) ALONG AND SOUTH OF A JACKSONVILLE
TO DANVILLE LINE. THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT IS DUE TO A FURTHER
SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THE ROCKIES SHORT-WAVE TRACKS EASTWARD, IT WILL
HELP PULL THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT, BUT IT IS NOW ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE I-64 CORRIDOR.
THIS HAS SHIFTED THE ZONE OF MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDER TO
THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE KILX CWA. THE SAME STORY WILL
UNFOLD ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT WAVE INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT. THE
BOTTOM LINE STILL REMAINS UNCHANGED...CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL
RECEIVE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THIS WEEK. HOWEVER, LOCATIONS
ALONG/NORTH OF A MACOMB TO BLOOMINGTON LINE WILL NOT SEE QUITE AS
MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
..SEVERE WEATHER RISK WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS THE ROCKIES WAVE NEARS, A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONT...WITH THE FRONT
PROGGED TO REACH NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF I-70 BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE (SBCAPE 800-1000J/KG) AND HIGHLY
SHEARED (0-6KM BULK SHEAR 50-60KT). GIVEN THESE PARAMETERS
COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, A FEW OF THE CELLS WILL
DEVELOP SUFFICIENTLY STRONG UPDRAFTS TO SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70 FROM ABOUT 3PM THROUGH 10PM. THE SEVERE
WEATHER RISK WILL DECREASE LATER IN THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS DAYTIME INSTABILITY WANES.
..SEVERE WEATHER RISK LATE FRIDAY
THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. AFTER A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING, A LULL IN THE PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
OBSERVED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF
CONVECTION MATERIALIZES ON FRIDAY. THE 00Z MAR 3 GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE LATE-WEEK SYNOPTIC
FEATURES...WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING A WARM FRONT SURGING NORTHWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON FRIDAY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
ANY CONVECTION THAT FIRES ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT FRIDAY
MORNING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL: HOWEVER, IT APPEARS FORCING
FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE WARM SECTOR ARRIVES IN EARNEST, PUSHING HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE LIFTING
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL PULL A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EVENTUALLY PUSHING INTO THE
ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z SAT. THIS IS NOT PARTICULARLY GOOD
TIMING FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS INSTABILITY WILL
BE AT A MINIMUM AS THE STRONGEST FORCING ARRIVES. AT THIS TIME,
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER (GREATER THAN A 30%
CHANCE) REMAIN FOCUSED WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.
BARNES
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 552 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
IFR CEILINGS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING AND WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE FOR THE BALANCE OF
THE DAY. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY SE AT 5-10KT, BUT ARE PROGGED TO
BECOME NE AFTER 20Z/21Z. AT THAT TIME, DRIER AIR OVER NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS WILL TRICKLE SOUTHWESTWARD...POTENTIALLY LEADING TO AN
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT KPIA/KBMI. GIVEN EXPECTED WIND DIRECTION
AND HRRR/RAP FORECAST, AM MOST CONFIDENT WITH RISING CEILINGS AT
KPIA. HAVE THEREFORE GONE MVFR THERE AFTER 20Z, BUT HAVE OPTED TO
MAINTAIN IFR AT KBMI AND THE REMAINING SITES THROUGH THE ENTIRE
12Z TAF PERIOD. 1130Z/530AM RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING E/NE INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. BASED
ON RADAR TRENDS, HAVE CARRIED A PERIOD OF THUNDER AT BOTH KSPI AND
KDEC THROUGH 15Z. AFTER THAT, THERE WILL BE A TEMPORARY LULL IN
THE SHOWERS BEFORE A RENEWED ROUND DEVELOPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE MOST WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION WILL FOCUS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-72, SO HAVE OPTED TO
MENTION THUNDER AT KSPI/KDEC/KCMI BETWEEN 01Z AND 06Z BEFORE
INSTABILITY DECREASES AND THE SHOWERS GRADUALLY SINK S/SE OF THE
TERMINALS.
BARNES
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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