236
FXUS63 KILX 051656
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1056 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG, WITH A FEW SPOTS HAVING VISIBILITIES OF A MILE OR
LESS, WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IL LATE
THIS MORNING. MORE FOG WILL LIKELY RE-DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL IL
TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THERE IS A
50-80% CHANCE THAT VISIBILITIES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP BELOW 1
MILE.
- AFTER A WINDY AND WARM DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S ON
FRIDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (15-30% CHANCE) OF SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH THE PRIMARY RISK BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1055 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
WE ALLOWED THE FLOOD WATCH IN SOUTHEAST IL TO EXPIRE AT 9 AM.
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN PAST 24 HOURS FROM I-70
SOUTH CAUSING FLOOD WARNINGS ON THE LITTLE WABASH RIVER AT CLAY
CITY (ALREADY IN FLOOD) AND EMBARRAS RIVER AT LAWRENCEVILLE
(FORECAST TO REACH FLOOD STAGE BY MID AFTERNOON). SCATTERED
SHOWERS LINGERED ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LOUISVILLE TO ROBINSON
LINE AT LATE MORNING AND LIFTING NORTHEAST. THE HRRR SHOWS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTING INTO THIS AFTERNOON IN
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL, MAINLY EAST OF I-57 WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST IL. THIS IN RESPONSE
TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM DANVILLE TO CHARLESTON TO WEST OF
EFFINGHAM THAT PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN IL DURING THIS AFTERNOON. SPC
DAY1 OUTLOOK KEEPS MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SE OF IL OVER
KY, SOUTHERN OHIO AND WV FOR 5% RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS. A LARGER
MARGINAL RISK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IS WEST OF IL OVER
NW MO INTO CENTRAL AND SW IOWA.
ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 9 AM FROM I-72 NORTH,
BUT ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR AREAS OF FOG LINGERING
UNTIL NOON ESPECIALLY FROM I-55 NW. BUT CAMS SHOW WIDESPREAD FOG
DEVELOPING DURING TONIGHT FROM THE IL RIVER TO I-70 AND GRADUALLY
SHIFTING NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT INTO MID FRIDAY MORNING AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT. THIS WARM
FRONT COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SCATTERED TO BROKEN BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NE OVER CWA OVERNIGHT INTO MID
FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGHS TODAY RANGE FROM UPPER 50S NORTH OF I-72 AND MID TO UPPER
60S IN SOUTHEAST IL WHICH STAYS IN WARM SECTOR LONGER TODAY.
SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP DURING THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-72.
07
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TO TRACK ACROSS THE E/SE KILX CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
09Z/3AM RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING THE RAIN MAINLY ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF A
TAYLORVILLE TO PARIS LINE. THE SHOWERS HAVE MIXED THE PREVIOUSLY
STAGNANT AIRMASS, RESULTING IN IMPROVED VISIBILITY. AS A RESULT,
HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA.
MEANWHILE FURTHER NORTH WHERE CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED DRY AND
THUS UNMIXED, DENSE FOG IS WIDESPREAD. WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND A CLEAR
SIGNAL FOR CONTINUED LOW VISBYS ON ALL CAMS, HAVE EXTENDED THE
ADVISORY UNTIL 9AM ALONG/NORTH OF A SPRINGFIELD TO DANVILLE LINE.
AFTER THAT, THE FOG WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON:
HOWEVER, SKIES WILL REMAIN OVERCAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN IN RECENT DAYS...MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S, BUT WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S SOUTH OF
I-70.
AS A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN
SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER FLOW WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL
NUDGE THE PERSISTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OZARKS/OHIO
RIVER VALLEY NORTHWARD. WITH A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE
AND LIGHT E/SE WINDS, THINK FOG WILL RE-DEVELOP THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. CAMS ARE ALREADY SUGGESTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
THE 00Z MAR 5 REFS INDICATES A HIGH PROBABILITY (50-80% CHANCE)
FOR VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW 1 MILE ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE
KILX CWA. GIVEN THE CLEAR PATTERN SIGNAL AND SUPPORT FROM CAMS,
HAVE ADDED WIDESPREAD FOG TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT. THINK VISBYS
WILL BE LOWEST NORTH OF I-70 FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE FIRST PART
OF THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDER DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT MIX THE ATMOSPHERE AND PERHAPS LEAD TO SOME VISBY
IMPROVEMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE, BUT WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY CELLS THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THE FRONT AND
ITS ASSOCIATED STORM CHANCES WILL SURGE NORTH FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
THE STRONGEST FORCING PUSHING INTO WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN BY MIDDAY.
TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT, WINDY AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL
BE NOTED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS AFTERNOON HIGHS SOAR INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A LARGELY
CAPPED AIRMASS...WITH THE WEAKEST CAPPING EAST OF THE I-57
CORRIDOR INTO INDIANA. SINCE ALL PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISMS WILL
BE WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THINK STORM
DEVELOPMENT AT THAT TIME WILL BE NIL.
AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL SWING INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION.
AN EARLY LOOK AT THE CAMS SUGGESTS A FEW CELLS MAY LIFT N/NE FROM
NORTHERN MISSOURI/SOUTHERN IOWA INTO THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY BY
MID TO LATE EVENING: HOWEVER, THE MAIN BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL OVERNIGHT.
WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING AT THAT POINT AND THE
STORMS MAY BECOME MORE ELEVATED IN NATURE, AM CONCERNED THAT A
55-65KT 850MB JET STREAK TRANSLATING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
WILL ADD ENOUGH WIND ENERGY TO THE PROFILE TO SUPPORT SEVERE WIND
GUSTS TO THE SURFACE EVEN WITH WEAK CONVECTION. THE LATEST SPC
OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF I-57 FOR A
SLIGHT RISK (15-30% CHANCE) OF SEVERE, AND THINK THIS LOOKS QUITE
REASONABLE.
BARNES
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
THE COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS SATURDAY
MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY. AFTER CHILLY MORNING LOWS IN
THE 30S, THE DRY PACIFIC-ORIGIN AIRMASS WILL HEAT SUFFICIENTLY
TO PRODUCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
AFTER THAT, WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK THANKS
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. HIGHS WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE 70S ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN AS WELL. WHILE
THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE SYNOPTIC
MODELS AT THAT RANGE, CONSENSUS POINTS TO MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE WETTEST PERIOD AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
TRAVERSES THE REGION.
BARNES
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
IFR CEILINGS/VISBYS WILL PERSIST AT THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS TERMINALS
THROUGH MIDDAY. 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z
BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING AND BECOMING UNRESTRICTED BY 18Z/19Z.
WHILE THE FOG WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR, THE LOW CLOUDS WILL NOT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CEILINGS MAY RISE TO MVFR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE ONCE AGAIN LOWERING TO IFR
AFTER DARK. GIVEN AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ONLY LIGHT E/SE
WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SLOWLY APPROACHING WARM FRONT, FOG
WILL RE-DEVELOP TONIGHT. CAMS VARY ON THE EXACT TIMING AND HOW LOW
VISBYS WILL BECOME, BUT THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS ANOTHER
FOGGY NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED ALL SITES TO 1 MILE AFTER 05Z/06Z
ACCORDINGLY, BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN IF TRENDS
PERSIST.
BARNES
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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