712
FXUS63 KILX 060605
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1205 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MORE FOG WILL LIKELY RE-DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL
DURING TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THERE
IS A 40-80% CHANCE THAT VISIBILITIES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP BELOW
1 MILE ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRI MORNING WITH SOME
AREAS LIKELY SEEING A PERIOD OF DENSE FOG AGAIN.
- EXPECT AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND WINDY DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 70S ON FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT
INTO MID FRIDAY MORNING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN TRIGGER A BROKEN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (15-30% CHANCE) OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM
HIGHWAY 51 WEST, WITH THE PRIMARY RISK BEING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS OVER EASTERN IL
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 933 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND VISIBILITIES ARE DROPPING
ACROSS THE EAST, SOUTHEAST, AND AREAS EAST OF THE IL RIVER. DENSE
FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST, AND SOME MODELS DO
EXPAND THE LOWER VISIBILITIES TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. AIRMASS
REMAINS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, SO BELIEVE DENSE FOG IS PROBABLY
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AGAIN TONIGHT...JUST LIKE LAST NIGHT. HAVE
ALREADY ISSUES AN ADVISORY FOR THIS AND WILL BE MAKING ADJUSTMENTS
TO WX GRIDS TO ENSURE CONSISTENCY. UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
AUTEN
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
THE 20Z/2 PM SURFACE MAP SHOWS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN EASTERN
IL JUST WEST OF I-57 AND EAST OF ST LOUIS EXTENDING FROM WEAK 1014
MB LOW PRESSURE IN NW IN. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE EAST OF THIS
BOUNDARY MAINLY IN CHAMPAIGN AND VERMILION COUNTIES LIFTING NE.
ALOFT A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF WAS OVER LAKE MI INTO NE IL AND NW
IN. WHILE A MUCH STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF WAS OVER THE
WESTERN US FROM MT INTO SOUTHERN CA. A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT FOG
LINGERED OVER CENTRAL IL WITH A FEW VSBYS 1.5-3 MILES BUT MOST
VSBYS WERE AT OR ABOVE 5 MILES. A FEW PEAKS OF SUNSHINE WERE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE LOW CLOUDS BLANKETING CENTRAL/SE IL WITH
MORE BREAKS IN NORTHERN CWA. TEMPS RANGED FROM UPPER 40S TO MID
50S WEST OF I-57 TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S IN EASTERN IL, MILDEST
IN SOUTHEAST IL.
INITIAL CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE THE REDEVELOPING OF FOG AND HOW
DENSE IT WILL BECOME AND WHERE THAT WILL SET UP. THE LATEST CAMS
ARE STILL SHOWING MORE WIDESPREAD FOG REDEVELOPING DURING THIS
EVENING WITH REDEVELOPING THE FOG THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY AFTER
7-8 PM WITH HRRR AND GLAMP MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER MORE OF CWA BY LATE EVENING. THINK WE MAY
EVENTUALLY NEED ANOTHER DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT THOUGH MAY NOT
LAST AS LONG AS LAST NIGHTS. THE CAMS ARE STILL LIFTING THE FOG
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BUT A BIT SLOWER, DIMINISHING IN SOUTHERN CWA
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING AND LINGERING OVER NORTHERN CWA
INTO MID FRI MORNING. OTHER ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE THE WARM FRONT
LIFTING NNE OVER CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO MID FRI MORNING AND LIKELY
HAVING A SCATTERED TO BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION WITH IT. THIS
COULD HAVE POCKETS OF BRIEF MODERATE/HEAVY RAINS ALONG WITH HAIL
FROM 10-15Z ESPECIALLY NORTHERN CWA, AND LIFTING NORTH OF CWA BY
LATE FRI MORNING PER 18Z HRRR. NOT MUCH TEMPERATURE DROP TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN UPPER 40S NORTH OF I-72 AND 54-58F IN SOUTHEAST IL.
UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY AHEAD ON FRIDAY WITH BREEZY SSW WINDS
GUSTING 25-35 MPH BY FRI AFTERNOON. HREF HAS 40-80% CHANCE OF
GREATER THAN 35 MPH WIND GUSTS FRI AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE IL RIVER
AND I-70 AND STAYING GUSTY AROUND 30 MPH OR HIGHER INTO FRI
NIGHT. HIGHS FRI IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND WARMEST DAY FOR MUCH
OF CENTRAL IL SINCE NOV 14-15TH.
THE STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN US TO
EJECT A STRONG STORM SYSTEM NE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE
PUSHING A COLD FRONT EASTWARD TOWARD THE IL RIVER VALLEY BY
SUNRISE SAT. BROKEN CONVECTION LIKELY SPREADING EASTWARD AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT INTO THE IL RIVER VALLEY BY LATE FRI EVENING/EARLY
OVERNIGHT FRI NIGHT AND INTO EASTERN IL LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT
MORNING. SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK HAS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE FROM HIGHWAY
51 WEST AND MARGINAL RISK EAST FRI NIGHT. ALL SEVERE ELEMENTS AT
PLAY FRI NIGHT OVER CWA, WITH FAR WESTERN CWA HAVING RISK OF
LARGER HAIL (LARGER THAN 2 INCH) AND HIGHER WINDS. THE 18Z HRRR
HAS THE LINE OF STORMS STRENGTHENING LATE SAT MORNING AS IT MOVES
INTO FAR SE CWA BEFORE FRONT CLEARS THAT AROUND AROUND 18Z/NOON ON
SATURDAY. SO MARGINAL SEVERE RISK CONTINUES IN EASTERN IL SAT
MORNING FROM PARIS TO EFFINGHAM SOUTHEAST. MORNING HIGHS SAT IN
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S OVER IL RIVER VALLEY AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70F IN EASTERN IL WITH BREEZY WNW WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
CAUSING TEMPS TO SLIP ABOUT 10F BY 6-7 PM SAT.
QUIET WEATHER RETURNS TO THE REGION SAT NIGHT THROUGH DAYTIME
HOURS ON MONDAY WILL IL IN BETWEEN STORM TRACKS IN SOUTHEAST
STATES AND NORTHERN STATES NEAR CANADIAN BORDER. COOLER LOWS SAT
NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER CENTRAL IL WITH AREAS SE OF
I-70 NEAR 40F. SUNDAY SHOULD BE A NICE DAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BREEZY SW WINDS DEVELOP
DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL IL ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-72.
BREEZY SW WINDS BRING WARMER 70S BACK INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY
WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AGAIN.
A STRONG CUTOFF 500 MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE CENTRAL BAJA
PENINSULA OF NW MEXICO ON SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS BY WED MORNING. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER STRONG STORM
SYSTEM INTO THE MO AND IL ON TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH SHOWERS
LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUE NIGHT, LINGERING IN SOUTHEAST IL ON WED. SPC DAY 6 OUTLOOK FOR
TUE/TUE NIGHT HAS RISK OF SEVERE STORMS JUST SW OF IL AND WILL
THIS SEVERE RISK MAY BE EXTENDED FURTHER NE INTO PARTS OF IL TUE
AFTERNOON/TUE NIGHT. WPC GUIDANCE HAS 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER CWA
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND MAY AGGRAVATE RIVER FLOODING
CONDITIONS IN SOUTHEAST IL. THOUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL IL COULD USE
MORE RAINFALL ESPECIALLY NW IL (KNOX AND STARK COUNTIES) WHICH
ONLY RECEIVED LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION SINCE JAN
9TH.
07
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
FOGGY CONDITIONS WITH LOW CEILINGS WITH PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. FOG
COULD BECOME DENSE IN SPOTS, ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS
SHOULD HELP IMPROVE CIGS/VSBY AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY, IT WILL
ALSO INTRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, MOST FAVORED NEAR
THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS PICKING UP INTO THE 25-30KT RANGE. THERE IS A
CHANCE (30%) FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BUT A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LIES JUST
BEYOND THE CURRENT VALID PERIOD AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION.
DEUBELBEISS
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ILZ031-037-
038-041>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
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