259
FXUS63 KILX 071935
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
135 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY MILD AIR IS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES TUESDAY LIKELY
TO SET SOME RECORD HIGHS.
- THERE REMAINS A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT, WITH ALL HAZARDS IN PLAY. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, A THREAT MAY LINGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
- MORE BENEFICIAL RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH
PROBABILITIES OF SEEING MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN AT 50-70% OVER
MUCH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS. HOWEVER, AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIR
MASS WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS IN SOME
LOCATIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
A SHARP COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD, AND IS LOCATED NEAR
I-57 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY DROPPED
ABOUT 15 DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH 40S NOW PREVAILING WEST
OF THE FRONT AND LOW-MID 60S AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. LINGERING
SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS HAVE CONTINUED TO DIMINISH, WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT LATE AFTERNOON TAKING CARE OF THE REST OF
THE RAIN.
THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A TROUGH FROM ONTARIO TO
COLORADO, WITH A PROMINENT UPPER LOW JUST WEST OF THE NORTHERN
BAJA PENINSULA. WHILE THE TROUGH EXITS, THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE ZONAL ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW REMAINS CUT OFF. ASIDE FROM LOWS
IN THE MID-UPPER 30S TONIGHT, MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH 70S RETURNING BY MONDAY AND POTENTIALLY SOME 80
DEGREE READINGS ON TUESDAY, WHICH WOULD BREAK A NUMBER OF RECORD
HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA.
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE FORECAST WILL BE WITH THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MOST RECENT SPC OUTLOOK HAS
HIGHLIGHTED MOST OF ILLINOIS SOUTH OF I-80 IN THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT ZONE, ALSO REFLECTED IN A NUMBER OF MACHINE LEARNING
GUIDANCE TOOLS. GFS AND EUROPEAN ENSEMBLES HAVE A NUMBER OF
MEMBERS WITH SURFACE CAPE'S OVER 1500 J/KG BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
AND OVERNIGHT LREF GUIDANCE HAS HIGH JOINT PROBABILITIES OF MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG PAIRED WITH BULK WIND SHEAR
OVER 30 KNOTS (70-90% IN AREAS WEST OF I-55 IN THE AFTERNOON).
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLES WOULD SUGGEST MORE OF A NIGHTTIME EVENT, WHICH
IS NOT A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TIME AROUND HERE, BUT OVERALL
PARAMETERS SHOULD BE ABLE TO COMPENSATE. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF
THE COLD FRONT, A THREAT MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN
TERMS OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS, THE GRAND ENSEMBLE SHOWS 50-70%
PROBABILITIES OF OVER AN INCH OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
HOWEVER, PROJECTED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.3-1.5
INCHES ARE NEAR THE TOP OF SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN THE STRONGER STORMS
IS DEFINITELY ON THE TABLE.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE MID WEEK SYSTEM, THE UPPER FLOW SHIFTS
MORE OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WITH A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. AT THE PRESENT TIME,
IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THESE SYSTEMS WILL
MOSTLY TRACK TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES SET UP, TEMPERATURE TRENDS MAY BE MORE
VARIABLE.
GEELHART
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
A SHARP COLD FRONT JUST PASSED EAST OF I-55 AROUND 1730Z AND WILL
PASS THROUGH DEC AND CMI BETWEEN 18-19Z. BREEZY SW WINDS GUSTING
20-30 KTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SWITCH WNW BEHIND THE FRONT AND
BRIEFLY GUST 32-42 KTS FOR ABOUT AN HOUR ALONG WITH NARROW BAND OF
RAIN SHOWERS (POSSIBLE GRAUPEL) BRIEFLY BRINGING MVFR VSBYS.
CEILINGS OF 700-1400 FT TO LIFT TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AND THEN SCATTERED OUT FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 05-09Z.
STRONG WEST TO WNW WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT GUSTING 22-30 KTS
MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS DURING EARLY
EVENING AND VEER SW AT 5-9 KTS OVERNIGHT. SW WINDS TO INCREASE TO
BREEZY LEVELS AFTER 15Z SUNDAY WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS.
07
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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