951
FXUS63 KILX 082341
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
641 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY, WITH SOME AREAS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 80S TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
- SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN FOR MAINLY TUESDAY
NIGHT, WITH ALL HAZARDS IN PLAY. A LEVEL 3 (ENHANCED) SEVERE
WEATHER RISK IS IN PLACE NORTHWEST OF A JACKSONVILLE TO RANTOUL
LINE.
- MORE BENEFICIAL RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY,
WITH 60-80% CHANCES OF MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN ACROSS MOST OF
CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OF ILLINOIS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH HAS OUR AREA IN A SOUTHWEST
FLOW, WITH TEMPERATURES HAVING REBOUNDED INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S
BY 1 PM. OVERALL, THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY REMAINS TAME.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH WEDNESDAY):
FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS IS WITH POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGHS ON
MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. MORNING MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD AREA OF 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE
10-12C RANGE ON MONDAY, WHICH WOULD BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NBM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING HIGHS IN
THE LOW-MID 70S FOR MONDAY, THOUGH DEEPER MIXING SHOWN ON GFS
SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST THEY COULD BE A BIT HIGHER. THESE NUMBERS
WOULD BE NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN A HANDFUL OF LOCATIONS (SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW). BLENDED GUIDANCE CAME IN CLOSER TO THE 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR TUESDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S, AND RECORDS WOULD BE MORE LIKELY WITH THOSE NUMBERS.
OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR TUESDAY. WITH A
STEADY INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, DEW
POINTS RISE INTO THE LOW-MID 60S. SURFACE CAPE'S ARE PROGGED TO
RISE TO OVER 1500 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF
THE FORECAST AREA, THOUGH THE MORE FAVORABLE BULK SHEAR ARRIVES
EARLY EVENING. MOST OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS DO NOT GO OUT THIS FAR
YET, BUT THE RRFS OUTPUT IS FAIRLY CONCERNING (SUPERCELLULAR MODE,
A NUMBER OF UPDRAFT HELICITY TRACKS NORTH OF I-72 DURING THE
EVENING). SPC DAY3 OUTLOOK INTRODUCED A LEVEL 3 (ENHANCED) RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER NORTHWEST OF A JACKSONVILLE-RANTOUL LINE, WITH ALL
HAZARDS IN PLAY. THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE DOES NOT BRING THE
COLD FRONT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL ABOUT
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY, SO SOME RISK OF STRONGER STORMS WILL CONTINUE
SOUTH OF I-70 INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
IN TERMS OF THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL, NBM AND LREF GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO REMAIN HIGH ON PROBABILITIES OF OVER AN INCH OF RAIN
(MOSTLY 60-80%). FOR GREATER THAN 2 INCHES, NBM GUIDANCE HAS ABOUT
A 30-40% CHANCE FROM SPRINGFIELD EAST AND SOUTHEAST, WHILE THE
LREF HAS A MORE UNIFORM 15-20% ACROSS MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-70.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY):
FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH, THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO
A FLOW OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MORNING MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE
TO KEEP THE THURSDAY NIGHT UPPER WAVE MORE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF STATES, WITH MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER, A TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA ON SUNDAY. THE EUROPEAN MODEL GUIDANCE IS
A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS WAVE, BUT
MUCH OF THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WET END TO NEXT
WEEKEND.
GEELHART
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24HRS WITH CLEAR
SKIES MOST OF THE PERIOD, THEN FEW MID CLOUDS AROUND 15KFT
ADVECTING IN LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SUSTAIN AROUND 15KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH GUSTS AT PIA, SPI, DEC OVER 23KTS. GUSTS WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT, BUT ALL SITES WILL SEE GUSTS AROUND 25KTS TOMORROW
THROUGH THE DAY.
AUTEN
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY:
LOCATION MONDAY TUESDAY
======== ========= =========
BLOOMINGTON 73 (1974) 78 (1893)
CHAMPAIGN 73 (1925) 73 (1990)
CHARLESTON 79 (1925) 79 (1990)
DECATUR 78 (1925) 79 (1990)
LINCOLN 78 (2000) 78 (1955)
OLNEY 81 (1925) 80 (1990)
PEORIA 71 (1918, 2021) 77 (1955)
SPRINGFIELD 75 (1918, 1925) 80 (1955)
GEELHART
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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