619
FXUS63 KILX 091945
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
245 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE STORMS APPEAR LIKELY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES, SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE STRONG (EF2 OR HIGHER), AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL (2
INCH OR LARGER), DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) OF SEVERE STORMS
NORTHWEST OF A SPRINGFIELD TO HOOPESTON LINE, WITH A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 5) TO THE SOUTH.
- A WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH WELL-ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TODAY, THEN NEAR 80 DEGREES ON
TUESDAY. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SET RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.
- TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM ARE FAVORED TO
EXCEED AN INCH (40-70% CHANCE), AND LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE (10-20% CHANCE).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
PEORIA HAS AT LEAST TIED THEIR RECORD HIGH OF 71F AT 2 PM TODAY.
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS LIFTING TO STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS (BASES OF
1-2.5K FT) HAVE LIFTED AS FAR NORTH NW AS I-55. THE CLOUD BASES
ARE SLOWLY LIFTING AND ALSO SCATTERED OUT ON NORTHERN/NW FRINGE. A
FEW UPDATES WERE DONE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER IN AREAS FROM I-55
EAST THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER IN EASTERN
IL TONIGHT, AND LIKELY EXPAND IN COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING WITH SOME FOG ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR WARM FRONT CLOSE TO
NORTHERN CWA. A FEW CAM MEMBERS ALSO SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
EVEN POSSIBLE THUNDER TONIGHT OVER PART OF CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA
EAST OF IL RIVER AFTER DARK WITH SW LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. SPC DAY1 UPDATE HAS GENERAL RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT EAST OF I-55. MILD LOWS TONIGHT MOSTLY IN
THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. UNSEASONABLY WARM HIGHS TUE OF 75 TO 80F
AND NEAR RECORD HIGHS EXPECTED AGAIN.
EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD KEPT WARM FRONT NORTHERN IL BUT LATEST CAM
RUNS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DROPPING
AS FAR SOUTH AS I-74 DURING TUE AFTERNOON. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE A KEY PLAYER FOR SEVERE STORM/SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT DURING
MID/LATE TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE EVENING. EFFECTIVE SRH OF 150-300
M2/S2 ALONG WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES (5-10% RISK OF
STRONG TORNADOES EF2 OR STRONGER NORTH OF I-70 WITH HIGHEST RISK
FROM I-72 NORTH), 15-30% RISK OF LARGE HAIL NORTH OF I-70 WITH
VERY LARGE HAIL 2 INCH OR LARGER NORTH OF A SHELBYVILLE TO PARIS
LINE. ALSO 15% OR GREATER RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS. THE 2ND ROUND OF
SEVERE STORM RISK IS LATER TUE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FURTHER SOUTH
OF REST OF CENTRAL/SE IL FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
THOUGH TORNADOES STILL POSE A THREAT. TRAINING COULD SET UP DURING
TUE NIGHT ESPECIALLY LATER TUE EVENING INTO WED MORNING AND COULD
LEAD TO MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS, WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY SEEING 1
INCH MORE AND A FEW SPOTS LOCALLY UP TO 2 INCHES. WPC DAY2
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK HAS MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK TUE NIGHT
NORTH OF I-70 WITH THE SLIGHT RISK FROM I-72 NORTH.
COLD FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH SE TOWARD THE IL RIVER AROUND 12Z/7 AM
WED MORNING AND INTO SOUTHEAST IL BY 18Z/1 PM. SPC DAY3 OUTLOOK
HAS MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS (DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL) IN FAR
SOUTHEAST CWA SE OF A ROBINSON TO OLNEY LINE WED MORNING, WITH A
BETTER RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WED FURTHER SOUTHEAST. SIMILAR TO
THIS PAST SATURDAY, WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS FALL BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT DURING WED WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S OVER CENTRAL IL
BY SUPPER TIME WED AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S IN SOUTHEAST IL. BREEZY
SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO BECOME BREEZY NW BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH.
1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
WED NIGHT TO DECREASE CLOUDS FROM NW TO SE DURING WED NIGHT ALONG
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AS COLD AIR ARRIVES. SUBFREEZING LOWS WED
NIGHT IN UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30F CENTRAL IL AND LOWER 30S IN
SOUTHEAST IL. SURFACE RIDGE TO SHIFT SE OF IL BY THU AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING SW BREEZES OVER THE IL RIVER VALLEY DURING THU
AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS INCREASE TOO. HIGHS THU IN THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50F.
A FAIRLY STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TO TRACK ESE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THU AFTERNOON AND INTO
NORTHERN LOWER MI BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. BRUNT OF ITS PRECIPITATION TO
PASS NORTH OF CENTRAL IL THOUGH WE HAVE 20-30% CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CWA, HIGHEST POPS FROM I-74
NORTH. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI THROUGH SATURDAY WITH TEMPS
MODIFYING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S SAT (MID 60S SOUTH OF
I-70 AND SW OF SPRINGFIELD ON SATURDAY). ANOTHER STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES A FURTHER SOUTH TRACK INTO THE MIDWEST ON
SAT NIGHT NIGHT AND SUNDAY LIKELY BRINGING SHOWERS LATER SAT
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING SE OVER IL ON SUNDAY TO
RETURN COLDER AIR AND COULD HAVE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TOO
LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. COLD WEATHER EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS NEXT MONDAY
ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S SUNDAY NIGHT AND
UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S NEXT MONDAY NIGHT.
07
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
STRATUS CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 1-2K FT WAS DRIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD
DEC AIRPORT AT 1730Z AND SHOULD LIFT INTO CMI DURING NEXT HOUR OR
SO. CEILINGS/BASES OF STRATUS CLOUDS SLOWLY LIFTS DURING THIS
AFTERNOON BUT STILL MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY AT DEC AND CMI AND MAY
GET CLOSE TO BMI AIRPORT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR KEEPS
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS EAST OF I-55 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BUT
MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO
TUE MORNING, WITH BASES AS LOW AS 500-1500 FT ALONG WITH MVFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT FOG. A FEW OF THE CAM MEMBERS LIKE NAM
3KM, HRRR AND RRFS SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL IL BETWEEN
03-09Z TONIGHT BUT COVERAGE APPEARS TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN
CENTRAL IL TAFS AT THIS POINT. BREEZY SSW TO SW WINDS AROUND 15
KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON TO WEAKEN TO 10-14 KTS
THIS EVENING (EVEN LIGHTER AT PIA) AND AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING.
07
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY:
LOCATION MONDAY TUESDAY
======== ========= =========
BLOOMINGTON 73 (1974) 78 (1893)
CHAMPAIGN 73 (1925) 73 (1990)
CHARLESTON 79 (1925) 79 (1990)
DECATUR 78 (1925) 79 (1990)
LINCOLN 78 (2000) 78 (1955)
OLNEY 81 (1925) 80 (1990)
PEORIA 71 (1918, 2021) 77 (1955)
SPRINGFIELD 75 (1918, 1925) 80 (1955)
GEELHART
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page