466
FXUS63 KILX 101050
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
550 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
ALL HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE, INCLUDING TORNADOES, SOME OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG (EF2 OR HIGHER), LARGE HAIL (2 INCHES OR
LARGER), DAMAGING WINDS, AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. THERE IS
AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) OF SEVERE STORMS NORTH OF A
SPRINGFIELD TO DANVILLE LINE, WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5)
TO THE SOUTH.
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. IT WILL ALSO BE SEASONABLY HUMID, WITH
DEWPOINTS REACHING THE MID 60S.
- TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY COULD EXCEED AN
INCH (40-70% CHANCE). THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES (10-20% CHANCE).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
*** ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TUES PM ***
A VOLATILE PARAMETER SPACE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE LATE EVENING, SUPPORTING AN ALL HAZARDS SEVERE STORM
RISK. THE NEW STORM PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK DID NOT CHANGE
APPRECIABLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ITERATION. THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK
(LEVEL 3 OF 5) OF SEVERE STORMS NORTHWEST OF A SPRINGFIELD TO
DANVILLE LINE, AND A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) TO THE SOUTH.
* SYNOPSIS *
EARLY TUES AM, A CUT OFF LOW THAT HAD BEEN POSITIONED WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA HAS BEGUN TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST, AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO
SO TODAY. THERE IS ALSO A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
THE PLAINS. TOGETHER, THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE PLAINS, WITH TWO LOW PRESSURE AREAS
DEVELOPING. ONE OF THESE IS OVER EASTERN CO, AND IS LESS RELEVANT
TO OUR DISCUSSION, WHILE THE OTHER IS SET TO LIFT FROM CENTRAL KS
TOWARDS THE QUAD CITIES OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS
APPROACHING SFC LOW WILL TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE, WHICH AS OF
06Z/1AM TUES EXTENDED FROM FAR SE NEBRASKA TO S WISCONSIN.
TODAY, A TIGHT WARM FRONT GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS N
IL, DUE IN PART TO AN ENHANCED LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.
HIGH- RES GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS FRONT
POSITIONED NORTH OF THE ILX CWA THIS AFTERNOON, LIKELY CLOSER TO
THE I-80 CORRIDOR THAN THE I-74 CORRIDOR. WHILE THE FRONT IS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE ORIENTED EAST-WEST, IT'S EXACT
ORIENTATION MAY BE DETERMINED BY THE STRENGTH OF THE ENHANCED LAKE
BREEZE. THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT WILL BE RELEVANT FOR WHETHER
OR NOT STORMS THAT DEVELOP NEAR IT MAINTAIN SFC-BASED INFLOW OR
BECOME ELEVATED, WHICH INFLUENCES THE ASSOCIATED HAZARDS TYPES.
HOWEVER, IF THE WARM FRONT IS INDEED NORTH OF OUR AREA AS
CURRENTLY PROGGED, THE STORMS FOR WHICH THIS IS RELEVANT WOULD
ALSO BE NORTH OF OUR AREA.
* PARAMETER SPACE *
ALL SIGNS POINT TOWARDS CENTRAL IL BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH NEAR-RECORD WARMTH AND UNSEASONABLY HIGH
DEWPOINTS LIKELY. DESPITE SOME CLOUD COVER, TEMPS WILL PUSH INTO
THE MID 70S- LOW 80S, WHILE DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID 60S. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE MORE TYPICAL OF A MID-MAY WARM SECTOR THAN EARLY
MARCH.
THERE WERE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETER
SPACE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. SEASONABLY HIGH INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED, WITH THE HREF MEAN DEPICTING SFC-BASED CAPE OVER 2000
J/KG, AND THERE WILL BE AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT UPDRAFT
MAINTENANCE. LOW-LEVEL HELICITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED NEAR THE WARM
FRONT DURING THE DAY, BUT INCREASE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR INTO THE
EVENING, BOTH IN RESPONSE TO BACKING OF SFC WINDS DUE TO THE
APPROACHING SFC LOW AS WELL AS THE ONSET OF A ROBUST LLJ. THE
FORECAST 0-1KM SRH VALUES ARE OVER 150 J/KG, WHICH IS
CONDITIONALLY SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.
THE DEGREE TO WHICH SFC-BASED INSTABILITY PERSISTS INTO THE NIGHT
WILL IMPACT THE STORM HAZARDS, AS WILL THE STORM MODE. AT THE VERY
LEAST, MODELS DEPICT MODERATE TO HIGH MUCAPE VALUES PERSISTING
INTO THE NIGHT, WITH STRONG WIND SHEAR FROM THE IMPRESSIVE LLJ.
* CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION *
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG CAPPING THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON, WITH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
LINGERING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR INTO EARLY EVENING. LATEST CAMS
DEPICT DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT MID-
AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE AREA NEAR THE WARM FRONT IS ONE OF THE
MORE FAVORABLE AREAS FOR CLOUDS THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON,
WHICH COULD MEAN CAMS ARE TOO QUICK TO ERODE THE CAP. IF THESE
MODELED STORMS DID FORM AROUND 2-3 PM, THEY WOULD LIKELY BE
SUPERCELLS, AND RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELL MOTIONS FAVOR A TRACK
PARALLEL TO THE WARM FRONT. (THAT IS, UNLESS THAT LAKE BREEZE
RESULTS IN MORE OF A NW-SE ORIENTATION OF THE WARM FRONT, WHICH IS
A POSSIBILITY AND WOULD FAVOR MORE OF A HAIL THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS). AT ANY RATE, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS THREAT IS MORE LIKELY
JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA, BUT IT'S CLOSE ENOUGH THAT WE
CAN'T RULE OUT BEING IMPACTED BY THESE POTENTIAL STORMS (AREAS
NEAR/NORTH OF I-74 NEED TO MONITOR).
ASIDE FROM THE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE WARM FRONT, ADDITIONAL STORM
INITIATION APPEARS UNLIKELY UNTIL THE EVENING (6-8 PM) AS THE
APPROACHING SFC LOW AND DEVELOPING LLJ BOTH INCREASE ASCENT AND
HELP ERODE THE CAP. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR
NEAR/NW OF THE IL RIVER. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE ENE, BUT THE COLD
FRONT GRADUALLY SAGGING SOUTH WILL PUSH THE STORM CHANCES
SOUTHWARD DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. INITIALLY, ALL
HAZARDS APPEAR POSSIBLE, THEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR ORIENTED PARALLEL
TO THE FRONT FAVORS UPSCALE GROWTH, WHICH WOULD TREND MORE TOWARDS
A WIND THREAT THAN A HAIL THREAT. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE
MODULATED BY WHETHER OR NOT SFC- BASED INSTABILITY PERSISTS INTO
THE NIGHT, WHICH REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE ASPECT OF THE FORECAST.
IT'S A LEAST PLAUSIBLE GIVEN SFC TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN
THE 60S. THE LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES WILL BE CONDITIONALLY
SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES, REGARDLESS OF WHETHER STORMS ARE SEMI-
DISCRETE OR LINEAR.
CAMS DEPICT STORMS CONTINUING NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE AFTER ABOUT 2 AM,
LIKELY DUE TO AN MCV FROM CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TODAY AND FURTHER AIDED BY THE APPROACH OF WHAT WAS FORMERLY THE
CUT-OFF LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA.
* SUMMARY OF THE SEVERE STORM THREAT *
ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY, INCLUDING STRONG TORNADOES
(EF2+) AND LARGE HAIL (OVER 2"). THE BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
STORMS IS NEAR A WARM FRONT, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST NORTH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA (NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR), BUT THESE STORMS
COULD OCCUR AS FAR SOUTH AS I-74. STORM CHANCES INCREASE THIS
EVENING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT BEING NEAR AND
NORTHWEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER BETWEEN 6-8 PM. STORM CHANCES
SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WIND MAY POSE
MORE OF A THREAT THAN HAIL OVERNIGHT. A TORNADO THREAT MAY PERSIST
INTO THE NIGHT. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING COULD OCCUR DUE TO
TRAINING STORMS (10-20% CHANCE OF RAINFALL OVER 2").
*** WEDNESDAY ***
CAMS VARY ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT INTO WED AM, WITH SOME
BRINGING IT SOUTH OF THE ILX CWA AND OTHERS KEEPING IT ACROSS E AND
SE IL. IF THE FRONT DOES LINGER LONG ENOUGH THAT SFC INSTABILITY
STARTS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF IT (MID TO LATE MORNING), MORE SEVERE
STORMS COULD DEVELOP. THE STORM MODE AT THAT POINT WOULD LIKELY BE
LINEAR, FAVORING WIND DAMAGE AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED TORNADOES OWING TO
CONTINUED STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. FOR NOW, THE CAMS THAT SHOW A
SLOWER FRONT ARE OUTLIERS, SO THE DAY 2 SPC OUTLOOK IS FOCUSED
SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR, JUST IN
CASE THINGS TREND IN AN UNFAVORABLE DIRECTION. AT ANY RATE,
PRECIP MAY LINGER NORTH OF THE FRONT, GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM
NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT NON-DIURNAL TEMP TRENDS ON WED,
WITH TEMPS FALLING DURING THE DAY. AREAS NW OF I-55 WILL ONLY
REACH THE 40S, WHILE AREAS TO THE SE GO FROM THE MID-50S TO
MID-60S IN THE AM TO THE 40S BY LATE AFTERNOON.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS MID-WEEK SYSTEM COULD WIND UP BEING
A CASE OF HAVES AND HAVE-NOTS, DUE TO THE SCATTERED, CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE PRECIP. ON THE HIGH-END, LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 2-2.5"
ARE POSSIBLE, PER THE HREF LPMM AND NBM 90TH PERCENTILE. ON THE LOW
END, SOME AREAS COULD RECEIVE AS LITTLE AS 0.25" (NBM 10TH
PERCENTILE).
*** THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEK ***
A SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR THURS, THEN SLIDES
EAST AS THE NEXT SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN US AND INTRODUCES
SOUTHERLY FLOW LOCALLY. THAT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR/NORTH OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR THURS
EVENING/NIGHT, BUT SHOULD BE UNIMPACTFUL.
THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE, WITH A LARGE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER
THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND, APPROACHING THE MIDWEST BY SUNDAY. EXPECT
BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM (SAT NIGHT INTO SUN).
LATEST ENSEMBLES DEPICT THE SFC LOW TRACKING THROUGH OR JUST NORTH
OF THE ILX CWA ON SUN. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE TRACK FOR
POTENTIAL INFLUENCE ON P-TYPE. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT RAIN
IS FAVORED INITIALLY, BUT A SWITCH TO WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, STRONG CAA IS FORECAST,
BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. BY SUN NIGHT (AS WELL AS
MON NIGHT), THERE IS A 40-70% CHANCE FOR LOWS BELOW 20 DEGF
(CHANCES INCREASE WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT).
ERWIN
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
SATELLITE SHOWS AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS FILLING IN ACROSS EASTERN IL
AND LIFTING NORTHWARD IN TIME. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL
TERMINALS THIS MORNING, BUT ARE LEAST LIKELY AT KSPI. SOME IFR
CEILINGS COULD OCCUR IN EASTERN IL (KDEC/KCMI). BREEZY SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS TODAY, BUT THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAFS COMES AFTER
00Z AS SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY MOVE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE, TRENDED THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THUNDERSTORMS A BIT LATER AT
EACH TERMINAL. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR LLWS POTENTIAL AS A
STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT, WITH 2 KFT WINDS APPROACHING 50 KTS
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
ERWIN
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY:
LOCATION TUESDAY
======== =========
BLOOMINGTON 78 (1893)
CHAMPAIGN 73 (1990)
CHARLESTON 79 (1990)
DECATUR 79 (1990)
LINCOLN 78 (1955)
OLNEY 80 (1990)
PEORIA 77 (1955)
SPRINGFIELD 80 (1955)
GEELHART
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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