328
FXUS63 KILX 111804
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
104 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AFTER 2AM,
TRAINING CELLS WILL LEAD TO A MARGINAL RISK (5-15% CHANCE) OF
MAINLY URBAN FLASH FLOODING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-72 THROUGH
DAYBREAK.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO WINTER-LIKE
CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS AN 80-100% CHANCE OF LOW
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS BY MONDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 113 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
0530Z/1230AM ANALYSIS SHOWS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING
FROM JUST EAST OF PEORIA SOUTHWESTWARD TO QUINCY. INSTABILITY HAS
DIURNALLY WANED:HOWEVER, A 50-60KT 850MB JET STREAK IS CONTRIBUTING
TO MLCAPES OF 1000-1500J/KG. WHILE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED
INTO THE 30-35KT RANGE DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEERING TO
SOUTHWESTERLY, THESE INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE SUFFICIENT
TO SUPPORT THE CONTINUED RISK FOR SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL, AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. BASED ON CAM
GUIDANCE, IT APPEARS THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH AND SHOULD BE MINIMAL AFTER 2AM. AS A RESULT, THE TORNADO
WATCH FOR LOCATIONS ALONG/NORTH OF I-72 WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 2AM.
ONCE THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK FADES, WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
RADAR TRENDS TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING CELLS
PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE I-72 CORRIDOR THROUGH DAYBREAK. WHILE SUB-
SURFACE SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS LOW, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RATES MAY
LEAD TO A FEW INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY WHERE
URBAN DRAINAGE SYSTEMS MAY BE CLOGGED WITH DEBRIS. AS SUCH, WPC
INDICATES A MARGINAL RISK (5-15% CHANCE) FOR FLASH FLOODING.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SHOWERS
WILL THEN RAPIDLY COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S
EVERYWHERE NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION, SKIES WILL CLEAR, WINDS WILL DECREASE, AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TONIGHT. AFTER A SUNNY
AND COOL START, CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL GUST 20-25MPH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BOOST
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
BARNES
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 113 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS TRIGGERING A FEW SHOWERS AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE I-74 CORRIDOR. ONCE THE LOW PASSES, A RETURN TO MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S IS ANTICIPATED
FOR FRIDAY. AFTER ANOTHER DRY DAY ON SATURDAY, A STRONGER AND MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACKING LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY.
WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING/TRACK DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
MODELS, THE 00Z MAR 11 GFS SHOWS MUCAPES OF 200-300J/KG AND 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO GREATER THAN 60KT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AS A RESULT, THE COLORADO STATE MACHINE LEARNING ALGORITHM
INDICATES A 5-15% CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. CURRENT FORECAST
INCLUDES SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BUT THE THUNDER CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IF TRENDS CONTINUE.
ONCE THE SUNDAY SYSTEM PASSES, DEEP-LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING A CHUNK OF VERY COLD CANADIAN AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS 850MB TEMPS DROP INTO THE -10 TO -15C
RANGE BY MONDAY, SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S. THE COLDEST READINGS WILL ARRIVE BY MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
THE 00Z NBM SUGGESTS A HIGH PROBABILITY (80-100% CHANCE) OF LOW
TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE TEENS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
BARNES
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
CEILINGS ARE A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH PERIODS OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AS WELL.
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS, WITH ACTIVITY WANING
THIS EVENING. HREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GREATER THAN 80% CHANCE
CEILINGS WILL CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER ROUGHLY
01Z/8PM CDT, WHILE NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25+KT GRADUALLY
EASE.
BUMGARDNER
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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