877
FXUS63 KILX 131714
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1214 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS TO BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST DURING THIS
MORNING, WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH INTO MID AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE DURING THIS MORNING FROM I-74 NORTH
WHERE GUSTS OVER 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL THROUGH 4 PM TODAY.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT SUNDAY BRINGS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 TO 5)
OF SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM I-55 EAST,
WITH AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) IN SOUTHEAST IL LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW DURING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
MORNING WITH ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-70 ALONG
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.
- SHARPLY COLDER AIR BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIVE WIND
CHILLS BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST OF THE IL RIVER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING, AND FROM I-70 NORTH DURING MONDAY NIGHT
INTO MID TUESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
WE CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE CWA UNTIL 4 PM TODAY AS
SW WINDS 25-30 MPH TURN WNW DURING THIS MORNING AS COLD FRONT
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS IL, WITH GUSTS 40-50 MPH INTO EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS TO OCCUR THIS MORNING BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT FROM I-74 NORTH WHERE GUSTS OVER 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. A
HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT JUST NORTH OF KNOX, STARK,
MARSHALL AND LIVINGSTON COUNTIES INTO MID AFTERNOON.
THE 08Z/3 AM SURFACE MAP SHOWS A STRONG 986 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
HAYWARD IN NW WI WITH ITS COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OVER
EASTERN IOWA AND NW MO. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS LIGHT RETURNS OVER
NORTHERN IL INTO KNOX, STARK, MARSHALL AND NORTHERN PEORIA
COUNTIES AND IN SOUTHEAST IL. BUT MUCH OF THIS APPEARS TO BE VIRGA
FROM MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A 10-20F TEMP/TD SPREAD. GALESBURG
RECENTLY REPORTED VERY LIGHT PCPN WITH 10F TEMP/TD SPREAD. SOUTH
TO SSW WINDS 20-30 MPH AND GUSTS 30-40 MPH OVER CWA SO FAR THOUGH
SLIGHTLY WEAKER BUT STILL VERY BREEZY WINDS IN SOUTHEAST IL.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK INTO NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL WI BY 12Z
AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE IL RIVER. LOW PRESSURE THEN TRACKS
ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MI TO NEAR NW LOWER MI SHORE BY 18Z/1 PM WITH
COLD FRONT PASSING SE OF IL BY LUNCH TIME TODAY. THE STRONGEST
WINDS APPEAR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DURING THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS
40-50 MPH AT TIMES OVER CENTRAL IL AND STRONGEST FROM I-74 NORTH.
WINDS TO START DIMINISHING BETWEEN 18-21Z WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 40
MPH BY 21Z/4 PM FAR NE CWA. SOUTHERN/SW PARTS OF CWA MAY BE ABLE
TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY A FEW HOURS EARLY TODAY. TEMPS
CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM UPPER 40S
TO AROUND 50F NORTHERN CWA TO 55-60F IN SOUTHEAST IL WHERE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING OTHERWISE MUCH OF AREA WILL
BE DRY TODAY AND EVENING AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY DURING
TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TO NEAR OR JUST NORTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
FURTHER DURING THIS EVENING AND TURNING NW. ELEVATED WING OF WAA
OVER NORTHERN PLAINS INTO IOWA AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL/NORTHERN IL
OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING COULD BRING SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I-72 WITH A DUSTING AT BEST POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS UP INTO CENTRAL MO AND FAR SOUTHERN IL BY SUNSET SAT. LOWS
TONIGHT MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 30S, WITH HIGHS SAT RANGING FROM
AROUND 50F FROM I-74 NE AND UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F FROM SPRINGFIELD
TO TERRE HAUTE SW.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS
FORECAST TO EMERGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING SATURDAY NIGHT
AND DEEPEN STRONGER THAN 990 MB AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS
OF MO/IL ON SUNDAY AND DEEPEN TO 980-985 MB AS IT MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY MORNING. WE WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE
OF THE STORM SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
(AROUND 70F IN SOUTHEAST IL) WITH RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SPC DAY3 OUTLOOK HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS FROM I-55 EAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH AN
ENHANCED RISK IN SOUTHEAST IL (FROM CHRISMAN TO GREENUP TO MT
VERNON SOUTHEAST) LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. PER SPC
DISCUSSION...AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN MO AND NORTHERN IL, WITH A PROMINENT COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS MO WESTERN AR, AND NORTHEAST TX. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE QUALITY WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SUBSTANTIAL VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONG
MODELS REGARDING INSTABILITY AND CAPPING, THOUGH STRONG ASCENT
NEAR THE FRONT SHOULD MITIGATE THESE FACTORS. HAIL AND DAMAGING
GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH THE MID TO LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY IN
RISK AREAS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF
WIND DAMAGE, ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES, DEVELOPING DURING LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST IL. THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL BE RAPIDLY INCREASING
DURING THIS TIME, AND WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVELS OF
INSTABILITY, IT WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN A STRONGLY
FORCED QLCS, PRODUCING CORRIDORS OF SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE AND A
FEW EMBEDDED TORNADOES. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 850 MB ALONG THE FRONT
MAY EXCEED 70 KTS, WITH A VERY STRONG FRONTAL SURGE OUT OF THE
WEST.
THE MUCH COLD AIR USHERS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DURING SUNDAY
EVENING AS RAIN TURNS TO SNOW WITH EASTERN IL SEEING RAIN TURN TO
SNOW LATE SUNDAY EVENING OR EARLY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. WPC HAS
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER CENTRAL IL ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-70 WITH
SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN/NW IL AND POSSIBLY INTO OUR
NW CWA. WINTER STORM WATCH IS POSTED JUST NORTH OF KNOX, STARK
AND MARSHALL COUNTIES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. STRONG WINDS
WILL ALSO BE OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM WITH GUSTS OVER 35
MPH LIKELY WITH THE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO BE OVER SOUTHERN MN AND WI WHERE AS MUCH AS 1-2
FEET POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WI AND UPPER MI.
MUCH COLD AIR ARRIVES INTO AREA EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK WITH WIND
CHILLS REACHING SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AND AS COLD AS ZERO TO 5 BELOW NW OF THE IL RIVER.
WIND CHILLS OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL IL
FROM I-70 NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO MID TUE MORNING. SUBFREEZING
HIGHS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN WARMUP UP
INTO THE 60S NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
07
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
VFR FORECAST AGAIN THIS CYCLE. GRADIENT WNW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THEN GO LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING MOVES IN. EAST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE HIGH WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT SATURDAY MORNING.
25
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
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