941
FXUS63 KILX 131857
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
157 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
PRIMARILY EAST OF INTERSTATE 55, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE
PRIMARY HAZARD.
- A SHARP TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW OCCURS SUNDAY NIGHT
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT, ACCOMPANIED BY WIND GUSTS OVER 40
MPH AND RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES.
- SUB-FREEZING HIGH TEMPERATURES AND MINIMUM WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 0
AND -10 DEGREES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND TAKES OVER FOR THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEPARTING 989 MB LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES, LEAVING CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN A BRISK WESTERLY
GRADIENT FLOW. HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES WIND GUSTS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A TRANSIENT
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN. WILL KEEP THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
WIND ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 4 PM EXPIRATION AS WE'RE STILL SEEING
SOME GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH THERE. LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, A WING OF WARM ADVECTION INCREASES CLOUD COVER, AND HREF
PROBABILITIES SUGGEST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
OVER THE FAR NORTHERN CWA. AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE DRY SO WE DON'T
HAVE ANY ACCUMULATION MENTIONED.
A STRONG MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE IS SLATED TO IMPACT THE REGION
SUNDAY, AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW (SUB-990 MB) TRACKS FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT,
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WINDS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH GUSTS
GUSTS REACHING 35-45 MPH MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. A ROBUST 850 MB
LOW- LEVEL JET IN EXCESS OF 70 KNOTS WILL FACILITATE MOISTURE
RETURN AND STRONG KINEMATIC SUPPORT. WHILE THERMODYNAMIC
INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED (MLCAPE ~500 J/KG), THE INTENSE DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG LINEAR FORCING SUGGEST A SQUALL LINE AND
POTENTIAL QLCS EVENT. MODEL CONSENSUS IS HIGH REGARDING THE SEVERE
THREAT BEING CONCENTRATED EAST OF I-55 WITH AN ENHANCED RISK
(LEVEL 3 OF 5) EAST OF I-57.
BEHIND THE FRONT, INTENSE COLD ADVECTION TAKES HOLD SUNDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO SNOW WITHIN THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF
THE DEPARTING LOW. 12Z GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE INTENSITY OF
THE DEFORMATION ZONE SNOWS THIS FAR SOUTH, AND LATEST BLENDED
GUIDANCE HAS DECREASED ACCUMULATIONS TO 1-3", HIGHEST NORTH.
HOWEVER, THE COMBINATION OF FALLING SNOW AND NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH COULD CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS AND WILL BE
MONITORING NEED FOR HEADLINES SUNDAY NIGHT. A FLASH FREEZE MAY
ALSO BE IN PLAY DUE TO INITIALLY WARM GROUND/MELTING ON ROADS
FOLLOWED BY PLUMMETING TEMPS.
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD, LATE SEASON ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST BEHIND THE STORM. THE ECMWF EFI
SHOWS VALUES BETWEEN -0.7 AND -0.8 FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
INDICATING AN UNUSUAL COLD EVENT FOR MID- MARCH. LATEST BLENDED
GUIDANCE SHOWS 20S HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS MONDAY NIGHT. BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
LIKELY DRIVE WIND CHILLS TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SUNDAY
NIGHT AND SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO MONDAY NIGHT.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A CLIPPER CROSSING THE MIDWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THIS LOW, MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK, THE DEEP UPPER LOW DEPARTS THE REGION,
ALLOWING FOR SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
NBM INDICATES A RETURN TO 60S HIGHS THU/FRI, WHICH ALIGNS WITH
THE CPC 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FAVORING A TRANSITION TOWARD ABOVE-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY LATE NEXT
WEEK.
25
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
VFR FORECAST AGAIN THIS CYCLE. GRADIENT WNW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THEN GO LIGHT/VARIABLE
TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING MOVES IN. EAST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE HIGH WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT SATURDAY MORNING.
25
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ILZ027>031-037-
038-043>046-053>057-063.
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