535
FXUS63 KILX 141143
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
643 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A SLIGHT TO ELEVATED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FROM MID
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MID SUNDAY EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS IS
GREATEST THREAT WITH 30-45% RISK IN SOUTHEAST IL, FOLLOWED NEXT
BY TORNADOES WITH 5% TO LESS THAN 10% RISK IN SOUTHEAST IL.
THERE IS ALSO A 5% RISK OF LARGE HAIL OVER THE IL RIVER VALLEY.
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-55 HAVING HAVING A GREATER THREAT OF
STRONGER WIND GUSTS 75 MPH OR HIGHER AND EF-2 OR STRONGER
TORNADOES.
- A SHARP TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW OCCURS LATE SUNDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH
SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY FROM I-55
NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH OR HIGHER AT
TIMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.
- SUB-FREEZING HIGH TEMPERATURES AND MINIMUM WIND CHILLS BETWEEN
ZERO AND 10 BELOW ZERO FOR AREAS WEST OF THE IL RIVER LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, AND ACROSS CENTRAL IL MONDAY
NIGHT INTO MID TUESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
THE 08Z/3 AM SURFACE MAP SHOWS 999 MB LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO PROVINCE THAT BROUGHT THE VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IL YESTERDAY HAS PULLED
AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH MUCH LIGHTER NORTHERLY WINDS 7-14 MPH.
WEAK 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER CENTRAL MN AND RIDGING SE
INTO CENTRAL IL. A WEAK FRONTOGENETIC FORCING/ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO
CENTRAL IL PRODUCING LIGHT ECHO RETURNS ON RADAR OVER CENTRAL IL
INTO NORTHERN MO AND MUCH OF IOWA. THOUGH THIS IS MOSTLY VIRGA
OVER CENTRAL IL SO FAR DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS (10-15F TEMP/TD
SPREAD) WITH MID LEVEL CLOUD BASES AROUND 10K FT OVER CENTRAL IL,
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN SOUTHERN/SE IL. TEMPS WERE IN THE MID
30S FROM MACOMB TO BLOOMINGTON NORTH, UPPER 30S HEART OF CENTRAL
IL AND LOWER 40S FROM I-70 SOUTH.
THE LATEST CAMS CONTINUE SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES) LIFTING NORTH OF
I-74 BY LATE MORNING WHILE WEAKENING. MAY JUST BE FLURRIES WITH
THIS BAND DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS AND WEAK LIFT. WILL SEE SOME
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF I-74,
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERALL TODAY BUT MORE SUNSHINE
IN SOUTHEAST IL AND SW CWA WHERE MILDER HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S. HIGHS AROUND 50F FROM I-74 NORTH WHERE MORE CLOUDS PREVAIL
MUCH OF TODAY. WINDS BECOME EAST TO SE AND INCREASE A BIT DURING
THE DAY WITH GUSTS 18-25 MPH BY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT WITH MUCH OF CWA DRY TONIGHT DESPITE WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHWARD OVER CWA DURING OVERNIGHT AS ~990 MB LOW PRESSURE
EJECTS EASTWARD FROM WY INTO SW IOWA BY SUNRISE SUNDAY, WITH BEST
FORCING NORTH AND NW OVER IOWA AND WI. THIS POTENT STORM SYSTEM
TO DEEP ITS LOW PRESSURE AS IT TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN IL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON REACHING NEAR CHICAGO BY SUNSET SUNDAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO INCREASE DURING SUNDAY WITH GUSTS 35-50 MPH BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HREF HAS 30-60% CHANCE OF OVER 50 MPH WIND GUSTS EAST
OF THE IL RIVER AND NORTH OF I-70 SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING. THE REFS HAS 25-50% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS OF 55 MPH
OR HIGHER OVER EAST CENTRAL IL FROM DURING EARLY TO MID SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WE WILL LIKELY NEED A HIGH END WIND ADVISORY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO WEST CENTRAL IL EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, AND REACH THE IL/IN BORDER BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EASTWARD ACROSS
CWA DURING SUNDAY. WARMER HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S SUNDAY
WITH AREAS SE OF I-70 AROUND 70F. PER SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK... WHILE
INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, STRONG LARGE- SCALE ASCENT COUPLED WITH DEVELOPING
EXTREME SHEAR PROFILES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CORRIDORS OF
DAMAGING WINDS, WITH A FEW TORNADOES AS WELL. SHALLOW CONVECTION
IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER MO BY EARLY
AFTERNOON, WITH GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AS THE AIR MASS
DESTABILIZES. STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING OVER SOUTHERN IL
INTO SOUTHEAST MO, WITH INCREASING WIND AND TORNADO RISK FOR
EASTERN/SE IL INTO IN. SPC DAY2 CONTINUED SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS OVER MUCH OF CWA FROM QUINCY TO GALESBURG SOUTHEAST, WITH
ENHANCED RISK SE OF A DANVILLE TO SHELBYVILLE LINE. THERE IS A
30-45% RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS IN SOUTHEAST IL AND HATCHED AREA FOR
WIND GUSTS OF 75 MPH OR HIGHER FROM I-55 EAST. THERE IS ALSO A
HATCHED AREA FOR EF2 OR STRONGER TORNADOES FROM I-55 EAST (FOR
QLCS TORNADOES ALONG POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE).
THEN THERE IS THE WINTER SIDE OF THIS POTENT STORM SYSTEM AS MUCH
COLDER AIR ARRIVES ON WEST TO NW WINDS GUSTING 35-50 MPH BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. THE RAIN TO TURN TO SNOW OVER THE IL RIVER VALLEY
LATE SUNDAY EVENING AND OVER REST OF CWA DURING OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT. COULD SEE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE IL RIVER VALLEY,
HIGHEST OVER KNOX AND STARK COUNTIES AND WILL LIKELY SEE BLOWING
SNOW DEVELOP BY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BETWEEN 1-2
INCHES OVER HEART OF CENTRAL IL AND LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW IN
SOUTHEAST IL. WILL LIKELY NEED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
AREAS FROM I-55 NW AND AREAS FURTHER NW MAY BE HAVING NEAR WHITE
OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. MUCH COLDER AIR USHERS IN DURING SUNDAY
NIGHT BEHIND COLD FRONT WITH WIND CHILLS OF ZERO TO 5 BELOW OVER
THE IL RIVER VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDY
AND SNOWY CONDITIONS CONTINUE MONDAY, THOUGH SNOW TO BE
DIMINISHING FROM SW TO NE ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG
LOW PRESSURE 980-985 MB LIFT S NE OF EASTERN UPPER MI PENINSULA.
HIGHS MONDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S OVER CENTRAL IL AND UPPER
20S TO NEAR 30F IN SOUTHEAST IL. VERY COLD MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF I-57 AND LOWER TEENS IN EASTERN IL.
MUCH OF CENTRAL IL TO SEE WIND CHILLS DOWN TO ZERO TO 10 BELOW
MONDAY NIGHT INTO MID TUE MORNING WITH EVEN SOUTHEAST IL NEAR ZERO
WIND CHILLS. SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE NE CWA MONDAY EVENING,
OTHERWISE DRY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. COLD YET ON TUE WITH HIGHS
27-32F, COLDEST NE CWA.
ANOTHER QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM TO DIVE DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES INTO WI/IL OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT AND
BRING GOOD CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TUE NIGHT, THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK MINOR. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.
A PATTERN CHANCE TO OCCUR DURING 2ND HALF THE WEEK AS STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BUILDS CLOSER TO IL WHILE
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF PULLS AWAY FROM THE MIDWEST. HIGHS WED
MODERATE INTO THE 50S (NEAR 60F FROM JACKSONVILLE SW TO MS RIVER
VALLEY) AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S THU THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70F NEAR WEST CENTRAL/SW IL BY MS RIVER VALLEY.
ECMWF SHOWS A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING BY NORTH OF
CENTRAL IL WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING AND WE KEPT A DRY FORECAST
GOING FROM WED THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR
21-27TH HAS 50-60% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
CENTRAL/SE IL AND 35-40% CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
07
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24HRS, EXCEPT
FOR PIA IF ANY LIGHT SNOW OCCURS THERE OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS.
OTHERWISE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY THIS MORNING BUT BECOME SOUTHEAST
FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY
TOMORROW. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE AROUND 10KTS THROUGH THE MORNING
AND THEN INCREASE WITH GUSTS OF 20-25KTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. TOWARD TOMORROW MORNING, GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO 25-30KTS.
AUTEN
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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