701
FXUS63 KILX 222307
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
607 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 1 TO 2 OF 5) OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING NEAR A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
IL. HAZARDS INCLUDE LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
- GUSTY (30-40 MPH) NORTH WINDS WILL BRING A SEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS
BACK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT, WITH LOWS REACHING THE LOWER 30S.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S MONDAY, INCREASING TO LOWER 80S BY THURSDAY.
- ANOTHER CHANCE (40-60%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY. THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM RISK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
A COLD FRONT HAS ADVANCED SOUTHWARD TO THE VICINITY OF I-72 AS OF 1
PM, WITH STRONG CAPPING STILL PREVENTING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HI-
RES MODELS INDICATE THIS CAP SHOULD BE OVERCOME AROUND 6 PM AS THE
FRONT REACHES THE VICINITY OF I-70, ALLOWING A FEW STRONG CELLS TO
FORM. SPC CONTINUES A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF I-72, INCLUDING 2% TORNADO PROBABILITIES AND
POTENTIAL FOR GOLFBALL OR LARGER SIZE HAIL IN THE EVENT OF AN
ISOLATED SUPERCELL FROM AROUND I-70 SOUTHWARD. NORTH OF THE FRONT,
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE, ALTHOUGH THE RISK
WOULD TRANSITION TO MORE OF A THREAT FOR 1 INCH DIAMETER HAIL.
GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS SHOWERS
TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY MIDNIGHT.
BEHIND TODAY'S COLD FRONT, LOWS WILL DIP TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT, AND ONLY REACH THE LOWER 50S MONDAY,
AROUND A 30 DEGREE DROP FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB GRADUALLY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH AROUND 60 FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY, 70 FOR WEDNESDAY, AND LOWER 80S FORECAST FOR THURSDAY.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE
IS ANOTHER COLD FRONT TIMED FOR LATER ON THURSDAY, APPARENTLY WITH
SIMILAR CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS TODAY'S
COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH SPC HAS NOT INDICATED OVER A MENTIONABLE 15
PERCENT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL, AT LEAST LOWER PROBABILITIES
APPEAR IN PLAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DRASTICALLY AGAIN BEHIND THIS
FRONT, WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 30S BY FRIDAY MORNING, AND HIGHS
ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 40S FRIDAY. A BRIEF CHANGE TO SNOW NORTH OF
I-70 IS POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITATION IS ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT. A
GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
37
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
STRONG NORTH WINDS DEVELOPED BEHIND A COLD FRONT EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 25-30 KTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED MOST OF TONIGHT, LESSENING BY MONDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. A BROKEN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY GRAZE EASTERN TERMINALS (KCMI/KDEC) THIS
EVENING, THOUGH BETTER CHANCES FOR ACTIVITY WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH.
LOW STRATUS WILL FILTER IN OVERNIGHT, BRINGING A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS TO AT LEAST KCMI WITH LOWER CHANCES (<40%) AT THE
REMAINING AIRFIELDS. LOW STRATUS SCATTERS OUT BY MID TO LATE
MORNING WITH JUST A FEW TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.
NMA
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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