856
FXUS63 KILX 230511
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1211 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY (30-40 MPH) NORTH WINDS WILL BRING A SEASONABLY COOL
AIRMASS BACK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT, WITH LOWS REACHING THE
LOWER 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S MONDAY, INCREASING TO
LOWER 80S BY THURSDAY.
- ANOTHER CHANCE (40-60%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY. THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM RISK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
A COLD FRONT HAS ADVANCED SOUTHWARD TO THE VICINITY OF I-72 AS OF 1
PM, WITH STRONG CAPPING STILL PREVENTING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HI-
RES MODELS INDICATE THIS CAP SHOULD BE OVERCOME AROUND 6 PM AS THE
FRONT REACHES THE VICINITY OF I-70, ALLOWING A FEW STRONG CELLS TO
FORM. SPC CONTINUES A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF I-72, INCLUDING 2% TORNADO PROBABILITIES AND
POTENTIAL FOR GOLFBALL OR LARGER SIZE HAIL IN THE EVENT OF AN
ISOLATED SUPERCELL FROM AROUND I-70 SOUTHWARD. NORTH OF THE FRONT,
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE, ALTHOUGH THE RISK
WOULD TRANSITION TO MORE OF A THREAT FOR 1 INCH DIAMETER HAIL.
GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS SHOWERS
TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY MIDNIGHT.
BEHIND TODAY'S COLD FRONT, LOWS WILL DIP TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT, AND ONLY REACH THE LOWER 50S MONDAY,
AROUND A 30 DEGREE DROP FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB GRADUALLY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH AROUND 60 FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY, 70 FOR WEDNESDAY, AND LOWER 80S FORECAST FOR THURSDAY.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE
IS ANOTHER COLD FRONT TIMED FOR LATER ON THURSDAY, APPARENTLY WITH
SIMILAR CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS TODAY'S
COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH SPC HAS NOT INDICATED OVER A MENTIONABLE 15
PERCENT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL, AT LEAST LOWER PROBABILITIES
APPEAR IN PLAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DRASTICALLY AGAIN BEHIND THIS
FRONT, WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 30S BY FRIDAY MORNING, AND HIGHS
ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 40S FRIDAY. A BRIEF CHANGE TO SNOW NORTH OF
I-70 IS POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITATION IS ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT. A
GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
37
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE WITH PERIODIC MVFR CEILINGS AT KCMI.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE WESTERN EDGE OF 2000-FOOT CLOUDS
STREAMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN, GENERALLY ALONG A KORD-KCMI LINE.
THE GRADIENT OF HREF HIGH PROBABILITIES OF CEILINGS BELOW 3000
FEET CONTINUE TO HUG THIS LINE THROUGH ABOUT 12-13Z, BEFORE A
GRADUAL SHIFT EASTWARD. WILL ADDRESS THIS WITH A TEMPO MENTION FOR
THE LOWER CEILINGS. AT THE OTHER TERMINALS, SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR
AT THE MOMENT, THOUGH SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS NEAR 3000-3500 FEET
MAY MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH TOWARD DAYBREAK.
NORTH WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY GUSTY THIS HOUR, THOUGH THEY CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH. MOST OF THE GUSTS SHOULD BE DONE BY 10Z,
THOUGH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS CONTINUE LATE MORNING.
AFTER THAT, A GRADUAL SWITCH IN WIND DIRECTION TOWARD THE EAST IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
GEELHART
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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