865
FXUS63 KILX 231941
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
241 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES INTO TUESDAY, MUCH WARMER
AIR WILL ARRIVE ON BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ARE
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL.
- ANOTHER CHANCE (60-80%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
THE 19Z/2 PM SURFACE MAP SHOWS 1031 MB CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WITH NORTH TO NNW WINDS (BREEZIER
WINDS GUSTING 20-25 MPH IN EASTERN I) USHERING IN SEASONABLY
COOL LOW TO MID 40S OVER CENTRAL/SE IL. VERY DRY AIR TOO WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S OVER CENTRAL IL AND
UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S IN SOUTHEAST IL. THE CUMULUS CLOUD FIELD HAD
BROKEN UP OVER AREAS FROM I-55 EAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVED ESE INTO CENTRAL IL (CIRRUS CLOUDS
MORE SCATTERED ALONG AND NORTH OF A MACOMB TO BLOOMINGTON LINE.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT AND NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNSET TUE. THIS
WILL CONTINUE DRY WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH DAYTIME HOURS ON
WED. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO INCREASE MID/HIGH CLOUDS
TONIGHT WHILE CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES SHOULD BE WEST AND
SW OF IL TONIGHT. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS DECREASE SE OF AREA EARLY
TUE MORNING WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AND
LIGHTER SOUTH TO SE WINDS AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS. SUBFREEZING LOWS
OVERNIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S, WITH HIGHS TUE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F.
MORE CLOUDS ARRIVE TUE NIGHT AND NOT AS COOL WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S. BREEZY SOUTH TO SSW WINDS DEVELOP BY WED MORNING
ON BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WED, EXPECT MILD HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S (UPPER 70S NEAR THE MS RIVER VALLEY OF WEST
CENTRAL IL). A WARM FRONT LIFTING NE OVER IL BY OVERNIGHT WED
NIGHT COULD BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. ABOUT 10
DEGREES WARMER ON THU WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S AND UPPER 80S POSSIBLE SW OF SPRINGFIELD. STRONG COLD FRONT
TO PUSH SE INTO CENTRAL IL LATE THU AND THRU SOUTHEAST IL DURING
THU EVENING. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND HIGHER PW AHEAD OF THIS
COLD FRONT THAN THE ONE YESTERDAY COULD BRING MORE OF OUR AREA
A BETTER CHANCE OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS BY LATE
THU AFTERNOON INTO THU EVENING. SPC DAY4 HAS A 15% RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS CWA THU AFTERNOON/EVENING. BREEZY SW WINDS
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THU TO TURN NORTH TO NE AND REMAIN STRONG
DURING THU NIGHT INTO FRI, GUSTING 25-35 MPH OR HIGHER. CHANCES
OF LIGHT RAIN LINGERS FRI OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA
ESPECIALLY FRI MORNING. MUCH COLDER HIGHS FRI IN THE UPPER 40S
TO NEAR 50F WITH SUBFREEZING LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO
NEAR 30F.
FAIR WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP INTO THE
LOWER 60S SUNDAY AND MID TO UPPER 60S NEXT MONDAY.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR
31-APR 6 HAS 70-80% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
MUCH OF IL WITH PRECIPITATION TRENDING 40-50% CHANCE ABOVE
NORMAL. SO THE MILD AND WET/UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE
AT LEAST INTO EARLY APRIL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE REGION, WINDS WILL
SWITCH FROM NORTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON TO EASTERLY THIS
EVENING AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY TOMORROW MORNING. IN
ADDITION, A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER TO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING, BUT THIS IS LIKELY (80-90%
CHANCE) TO REMAIN VFR.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
RECORDS HIGHS ON THU/MAR 26...
CHARLESTON.... 84 IN 1907
DANVILLE...... 78 IN 2007
GALESBURG..... 83 IN 1991
LINCOLN....... 79 IN 2007
NORMAL........ 83 IN 2007
OLNEY......... 85 IN 1907
PEORIA........ 82 IN 1907 AND 1991
SPRINGFIELD... 81 IN 1991
URBANA........ 81 IN 1907
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...07
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...BUMGARDNER
CLIMATE...07
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