970
FXUS63 KILX 240734
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
234 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH WARMER AIR WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NEAR
RECORD HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL. THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE OF
GREATER THAN 85 DEGREES WEST OF I-55 AND SOUTH OF I-74.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY, WITH THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL, AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY FLOAT EASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL BRING GRADUALLY INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THURSDAY. THE
WARMEST HIGHS ARE ON THURSDAY HAVE A 70-90% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 80
DEGREES SOUTH OF I-74 AND A 60-80% CHANCE OF GREATER THAN 85 DEGREES
WEST OF I-55 AND SOUTH OF I-74, BASED OFF THE NBM PROBABILITIES. WE
COULD POTENTIALLY BLOW AWAY THE RECORD HIGHS FOR THURSDAY AS THE
RECORDS ARE 79-82 DEGREES FOR OUR 3 CLIMATE SITES.
THURSDAY'S LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED WITH THE WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THURSDAY. THE WARM FRONT COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL IL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BRING STORMS, POTENTIAL EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL, AND A SHARP DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES AGAIN. SPC HAS GIVEN
CENTRAL IL A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THIS
EVENT, WITH THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL, AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR
TWO. THEN ENVIRONMENT, BASED OFF FORECAST SOUNDINGS, LOOKS TO BE
PRIMED BUT WILL HAVE TO FIGHT A CAP LIKE SUNDAY EVENING. MUCAPE
VALUES OF 1500-1800 J/KG, WITH 40-50 KNOTS OF BULK WIND SHEAR.
THE THING THAT STANDS OUT IS THE PWATS, WHICH ARE AROUND
1.3-1.5, AND THE LONG SKINNY CAPE PROFILE. THESE STORMS COULD BE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT, LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE MID 30S
TO LOW 40S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WON'T BE MUCH WARMER, WITH VALUES IN THE
UPPER 40S NEARING 50. AS OF NOW, THERE IS A 60-90% CHANCE THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL GET BACK ABOVE 70 DEGREES BY NEXT MONDAY WEST OF I-
57.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK HAS 70-80% CHANCE OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER IL WITH PRECIPITATION TRENDING 40-50%
CHANCE ABOVE NORMAL. SO THE MILD AND WET/UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO EARLY APRIL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH PERIODIC
CEILINGS IN THE 10KFT RANGE OR HIGHER. EASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT,
PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
RECORDS HIGHS ON THU/MAR 26...
CHARLESTON.... 84 IN 1907
DANVILLE...... 78 IN 2007
GALESBURG..... 83 IN 1991
LINCOLN....... 79 IN 2007
NORMAL........ 83 IN 2007
OLNEY......... 85 IN 1907
PEORIA........ 82 IN 1907 AND 1991
SPRINGFIELD... 81 IN 1991
URBANA........ 81 IN 1907
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...COPPLE
DISCUSSION...07/COPPLE
AVIATION...GEELHART
CLIMATE...07
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