685
FXUS63 KILX 250624
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
124 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL: HOWEVER, AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- LARGE TEMPERATURE SWINGS ARE IN STORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. READINGS WILL SOAR TO RECORD WARM LEVELS IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 80S ON THURSDAY...THEN WILL PLUNGE INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 20S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
BIG WARM-UP BY THURSDAY...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG 590DM 500MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE DEEP SOUTH OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...RESULTING IN RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. AS THE HIGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED WARM DOME APPROACH, 850MB TEMPS WILL RISE FROM
CURRENT READINGS IN THE 2-4C RANGE TO 18-20C BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN STRONG WAA AND AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S. BASED ON THE LATEST
PROJECTIONS, IT APPEARS RECORD HIGHS WILL BE TIED OR BROKEN
ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS BEFORE AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGS CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SEVERE WEATHER RISK THURSDAY...
A DEEP UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER HUDSON BAY WILL PIVOT SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE WEEK, FLATTENING THE DEEP SOUTH RIDGE AND
SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS THURSDAY
EVENING. WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS PROGGED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S WITHIN THE WAA REGIME, SBCAPES WILL REACH
500-1500J/KG BY PEAK HEATING. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 45-55KT...WITH THE STRONGEST SHEAR REMAINING N/NW OF THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. DESPITE THE
MODERATELY UNSTABLE/SHEARED ENVIRONMENT, NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING A STRONG CAP WITH MLCIN OF 200-300J/KG MIDDAY
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW EROSION OF THE CAP IMMEDIATELY
ALONG THE FRONT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. WHILE MOST CAMS DO
NOT QUITE COVER THE TIME RANGE OF INTEREST, THE 3KM NAM AND RRFS
BOTH SUGGEST CONVECTION FORMING ALONG/BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AFTER
ABOUT 4PM. WHILE THE INITIAL CELLS MAY POSE A LARGE HAIL RISK,
THINK THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BECOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE
STORMS CONGEAL INTO A LINE TOWARD EVENING. GIVEN 0-3KM VGP
PEAKING AT 0.4-0.45, THINK THERE WILL BE A NON-ZERO RISK FOR A
COUPLE QLCS TYPE TORNADOES ALONG THE LINE AS IT SINKS SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH MID-EVENING. ONCE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WANES, THE SEVERE
WEATHER RISK WILL DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AS THE STORMS DROP
SOUTH OF I-70.
PLUNGING TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK...
ONCE THE THURSDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF ILLINOIS, A
SHARPLY COLDER AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING FROM 18-20C
THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO AROUND -6C BY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
SUBSIDE, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
BELOW FREEZING BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE 12Z NBM SUGGESTS A
HIGH PROBABILITY (50-70% CHANCE) OF LOWS COLDER THAN 30 DEGREES
AND A 15-30% CHANCE OF READINGS DIPPING BELOW 25 DEGREES. THIS
MAY POSE A RISK TO ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS THAT MAY BE EMERGING A
COUPLE WEEKS EARLIER THAN USUAL THIS SPRING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH BASED CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT 24
HOURS, BUT WILL EASE BELOW 10KFT WEDNESDAY EVENING. EXPECT
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND AVERAGE 10-12 KNOTS
FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXTENT
OF POTENTIAL THUNDER DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY EVENING, AND HAVE
KEPT PROB30 GROUPS LIMITED TO THE KPIA-KCMI CORRIDOR FOR NOW.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
FORECAST TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY MAY EXCEED MARCH RECORDS IN
SOME AREAS.
MAR 26 RECORD MARCH RECORD
CHARLESTON.... 84 (1907) 89 (3/24/1929 AND 3/22/2026)
DECATUR....... 83 (1907) 89 (3/24/1929)
JACKSONVILLE.. 83 (1950) 91 (3/1/1907)
LINCOLN....... 83 (1991) 86 (3/29/1985 AND 3/30/1986)
NORMAL........ 83 (2007) 88 (3/21/1907)
OLNEY......... 85 (1907) 89 (3/24/1910 AND 3/24/1929)
PEORIA........ 82 (1907/1991) 87 (3/21/1907)
SPRINGFIELD... 81 (1991) 91 (3/21/1907)
URBANA........ 81 (1907) 85 (3/21/1907 AND 3/24/1910)
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...BARNES
DISCUSSION...BARNES
AVIATION...GEELHART
CLIMATE...GEELHART
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page