610
FXUS63 KILX 251745
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1245 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL: HOWEVER, AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- LARGE TEMPERATURE SWINGS ARE IN STORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. READINGS WILL SOAR TO RECORD WARM LEVELS IN THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THEN WILL PLUNGE INTO THE
UPPER 20S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SITTING OVER EASTERN U.S AGAIN TODAY,
BRINGING GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THURSDAY. THE WARMEST HIGHS ARE ON THURSDAY HAVE A 60-90%
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND A
60-80% CHANCE OF GREATER THAN 85 DEGREES WEST OF HIGHWAY 51, BASED
OFF THE NBM AND HREF PROBABILITIES. WE ARE LOOKING AT BLOWING AWAY
THE RECORD HIGHS FOR THURSDAY, AND MAYBE EVEN RECORD MONTHLY
HIGHS, AS THE RECORDS ARE AROUND 78-85 DEGREES. (SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR LOCATIONS AND RECORDS)
THURSDAY'S LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED WITH THE WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THURSDAY. THE WARM FRONT COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL IL LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING.
THE COLD FRONT IS BRINGING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, POTENTIAL
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, AND A SHARP DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES AGAIN. SPC
HAS MAINTAINED CENTRAL IL A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
WEATHER FOR THIS EVENT. ALL HAZARDS ARE IN PLAY, LARGE (POTENTIALLY
2+ INCH) HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW TORNADOES. SPC SUGGESTS
THAT IF THERE IS A TORNADO, THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR IT TO BE OF EF2
OR GREATER STRENGTH. TIMING LOOKS TO HAVE THE STORMS ENTERING THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH AROUND 22-00Z TOMORROW AND EXITING
TO THE SOUTH BY 08-10Z FRIDAY MORNING. THE ENVIRONMENT, BASED
OFF FORECAST SOUNDINGS, LOOKS TO BE PRIMED BUT WILL HAVE TO
FIGHT A CAP INITIALLY, BUT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, THE CAP WILL
ERODE. MUCAPE VALUES OF 2300-2800 J/KG, WITH 45-60 KNOTS OF
BULK WIND SHEAR. LAPSE RATES SOUND ALARM BELLS FOR SIGNIFICANT
HAIL SIZES WITH INSANE VALUES OF 8-8.3 C/KM. THEN THE PWATS,
WHICH ARE AROUND 1.5- 1.8, AND THE LONG SKINNY CAPE PROFILE
SUGGEST THAT THESE STORMS COULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THE
WPC MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR DAY
2.
BEHIND THE FRONT, LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE MID 30S
TO LOW 40S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WON'T BE MUCH WARMER, WITH VALUES IN THE
UPPER 40S NEARING 50. AS OF NOW, THERE IS A 50-80% CHANCE THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL GET BACK ABOVE 75 DEGREES BY NEXT MONDAY.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK (FIRST WEEK OF APRIL)
HAS 60-80% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER IL WITH
PRECIPITATION TRENDING 40-60% CHANCE ABOVE NORMAL. SO THE MILD AND
WET/UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY APRIL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
THE PRIMARY AVIATION FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE THE TIMING AND
AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ALONG AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT THIS
EVENING. CAM SOLUTIONS VARY, BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE
BULK OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE I-55
CORRIDOR AFTER 03Z...THEN WILL PUSH INTO INDIANA BY AROUND 07Z.
GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE COVERAGE, HAVE OPTED TO
MAINTAIN PROB30 THUNDER AT ALL TERMINALS...BEGINNING AT 01Z AT
KPIA/KSPI, THEN EXITING KDEC/KCMI BY 06Z. WINDS WILL INITIALLY
BE S/SW WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 20KT THIS AFTERNOON, THEN WILL
BACK TO S/SE AND DECREASE INTO THE 10-15KT RANGE BY SUNSET. AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT, WINDS WILL VEER TO SW AND GUST 20-25KT BY MID-MORNING
THURSDAY...WITH EVEN GUSTIER WINDS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
FORECAST TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY MAY EXCEED MARCH RECORDS IN
SOME AREAS.
MAR 26 RECORD MARCH RECORD
CHARLESTON.... 84 (1907) 89 (3/24/1929 AND 3/22/2026)
DECATUR....... 83 (1907) 89 (3/24/1929)
JACKSONVILLE.. 83 (1950) 91 (3/21/1907)
LINCOLN....... 83 (1991) 86 (3/29/1985 AND 3/30/1986)
NORMAL........ 83 (2007) 88 (3/21/1907)
OLNEY......... 85 (1907) 89 (3/24/1910 AND 3/24/1929)
PEORIA........ 82 (1907/1991) 87 (3/21/1907)
SPRINGFIELD... 81 (1991) 91 (3/21/1907)
URBANA........ 81 (1907) 85 (3/21/1907 AND 3/24/1910)
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...COPPLE
DISCUSSION...COPPLE
AVIATION...BARNES
CLIMATE...GEELHART
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