116
FXUS63 KILX 251931
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
231 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS
ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70MPH,
HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER, AND TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE.
- LARGE TEMPERATURE SWINGS ARE IN STORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. READINGS WILL SOAR TO RECORD WARM LEVELS IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 80S ON THURSDAY...THEN WILL PLUNGE INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 20S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
..SEVERE WEATHER RISK THURSDAY
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS UPGRADED PART OF THE DAY 2
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK INTO THE ENHANCED CATEGORY...MAINLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR. STRONG S/SW WINDS GUSTING
25-35MPH WILL BRING MUCH WARMER/MOISTER AIR NORTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS PROGGED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S,
HREF MEAN SBCAPES REACH 1500-2000J/KG BY PEAK HEATING. 0-6KM
SHEAR WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 45-55KT...WITH THE STRONGEST
SHEAR REMAINING N/NW OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS IOWA INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. DESPITE THE FAVORABLY UNSTABLE/SHEARED ENVIRONMENT,
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A STRONG CAP WITH MLCIN OF
200-300J/KG MIDDAY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW EROSION OF THE
CAP IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. THE
LATEST CAMS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST STORM DEVELOPMENT PRIMARILY
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ALONG AND NORTH OF A PEORIA
TO KANKAKEE LINE AFTER ABOUT 4PM. WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AND
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS,
THE INITIAL CELLS WILL POSE A VERY LARGE HAIL RISK...POTENTIALLY
IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITH STORMS IMMEDIATELY RIDING THE
BOUNDARY. AS THE CELLS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS, THERE WILL BE A
TENDENCY FOR THEM TO CONGEAL INTO A LINE...LEADING TO AN
INCREASED DAMAGING WIND RISK AS THE CONVECTION SINKS SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE I-72 CORRIDOR BY MID TO LATE EVENING. ONCE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY WANES, THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL DIMINISH TOWARD
MIDNIGHT AS THE STORMS DROP SOUTH OF I-70.
..RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH THURSDAY
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG 590DM 500MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE DEEP SOUTH OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...RESULTING IN RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. AS THE HIGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED WARM DOME APPROACH, 850MB TEMPS WILL RISE FROM
CURRENT READINGS IN THE 8-10C RANGE TO 18-20C BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN STRONG WAA AND AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S. BASED ON THE LATEST
PROJECTIONS, IT APPEARS RECORD HIGHS WILL BE TIED OR BROKEN
ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.
..PLUNGING TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK
ONCE THE THURSDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF ILLINOIS, A
SHARPLY COLDER AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING FROM 18-20C
THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO AROUND -5C BY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
SUBSIDE, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
BELOW FREEZING BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE 12Z NBM SUGGESTS A
HIGH PROBABILITY (60-80% CHANCE) OF LOWS COLDER THAN 30 DEGREES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE KILX CWA AND A 30-40% CHANCE OF READINGS
DIPPING BELOW 25 DEGREES NORTH OF I-72. THIS MAY POSE A RISK TO
ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS THAT MAY BE EMERGING A COUPLE WEEKS EARLIER
THAN USUAL THIS SPRING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
THE PRIMARY AVIATION FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE THE TIMING AND
AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ALONG AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT THIS
EVENING. CAM SOLUTIONS VARY, BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE
BULK OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE I-55
CORRIDOR AFTER 03Z...THEN WILL PUSH INTO INDIANA BY AROUND 07Z.
GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE COVERAGE, HAVE OPTED TO
MAINTAIN PROB30 THUNDER AT ALL TERMINALS...BEGINNING AT 01Z AT
KPIA/KSPI, THEN EXITING KDEC/KCMI BY 06Z. WINDS WILL INITIALLY
BE S/SW WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 20KT THIS AFTERNOON, THEN WILL
BACK TO S/SE AND DECREASE INTO THE 10-15KT RANGE BY SUNSET. AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT, WINDS WILL VEER TO SW AND GUST 20-25KT BY MID-MORNING
THURSDAY...WITH EVEN GUSTIER WINDS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
FORECAST TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY MAY EXCEED MARCH RECORDS IN
SOME AREAS.
MAR 26 RECORD MARCH RECORD
CHARLESTON.... 84 (1907) 89 (3/24/1929 AND 3/22/2026)
DECATUR....... 83 (1907) 89 (3/24/1929)
JACKSONVILLE.. 83 (1950) 91 (3/21/1907)
LINCOLN....... 83 (1991) 86 (3/29/1985 AND 3/30/1986)
NORMAL........ 83 (2007) 88 (3/21/1907)
OLNEY......... 85 (1907) 89 (3/24/1910 AND 3/24/1929)
PEORIA........ 82 (1907/1991) 87 (3/21/1907)
SPRINGFIELD... 81 (1991) 91 (3/21/1907)
URBANA........ 81 (1907) 85 (3/21/1907 AND 3/24/1910)
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...BARNES
DISCUSSION...BARNES
AVIATION...BARNES
CLIMATE...GEELHART
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