489
FXUS63 KILX 260740
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
240 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS EAST
AND NORTH OF A HAVANA-SPRINGFIELD-MATTOON LINE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 75
MPH, HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER, AND TORNADOES
(EF2+ STRENGTH) ARE POSSIBLE.
- LARGE TEMPERATURE SWINGS ARE IN STORE STARTING TONIGHT.
READINGS WILL SOAR TO RECORD WARM LEVELS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S, NEARING 90, TODAY...THEN WILL PLUNGE INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
AS AN 850 MB WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS MORNING,
THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE MOVING
THROUGH. BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES TODAY, WE WILL BE
FLIRTING WITH NEAR 90 TEMPERATURES. THEN THE COLD FRONT WILL
BRING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, POTENTIAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, AND
A SHARP DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM, WE SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE RAIN
CHANCES RETURN.
THERE A 40-70% CHANCE OF GREATER THAN 85 DEGREES SOUTH OF I-74, FROM
THE HREF. THE PROBABILITIES INCREASE TO 70-100% AS YOU GET SOUTHWEST
OF A MACOMB TO TAYLORVILLE LINE. WE ARE LOOKING AT BLOWING AWAY THE
RECORD HIGHS TODAY, AND MAYBE EVEN RECORD MONTHLY HIGHS, AS THE
RECORDS ARE AROUND 78-85 DEGREES. (SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR LOCATIONS
AND RECORDS)
SPC HAS CENTRAL IL A SLIGHT/ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 2/3 OF 5) FOR
SEVERE WEATHER FOR TODAY. ALL HAZARDS ARE IN PLAY, LARGE
(POTENTIALLY 2+ INCH) HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS (POTENTIALLY 75+ MPH
GUSTS), AND A FEW TORNADOES. SPC SUGGESTS THAT IF THERE IS A
TORNADO, THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR IT TO BE OF EF2 OR GREATER
STRENGTH. TIMING LOOKS TO HAVE THE STORMS DEVELOPING JUST NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 21-23Z, INITIALLY BEING DISCRETE. THEN THE
STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO LINEAR LATER IN THE EVENING.
THEY WOULD EXIT TO THE SOUTH BY 08-10Z FRIDAY MORNING. THE SEVERE
RISK, HOWEVER, WILL NOT BE AROUND THAT WHOLE TIME, AS WE LOSE THE
DAYTIME HEATING. AS THE LINE MOVES TOWARDS SOUTHEASTERN/SOUTHERN IL,
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS IT
COMPLETES ITS PASS THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN IL.
THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS PRIMED FOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL HAVE TO
FIGHT A CAP INITIALLY, BUT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, THE CAP WILL
ERODE. THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT THE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY DEVELOP
ALONG OR BEHIND THE FRONT. IF THEY DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT, WE
WOULD MORE LIKELY BE DEALING WITH ELEVATED STORMS, WITH MORE FOCUS
ON THE VERY LARGE HAIL (2+ INCH) RISK. THE TORNADO RISK WILL BE WITH
ANY STORMS THAT LATCH ONTO THE BOUNDARY. THE HREF SHOWS SBCAPE
VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG, WITH 40-50 KNOTS OF SHEAR. LAPSE RATES
SOUND ALARM BELLS FOR SIGNIFICANT HAIL SIZES WITH INSANE VALUES OF 8-
8.3 C/KM AS SEEN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. FOR THE WIND RISK, THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE AN "INVERTED-V" PROFILE WITH DCAPE VALUES
1000-1400 J/KG. THEN THE PWATS, WHICH ARE AROUND 1.4-1.6, AND THE
LONG SKINNY CAPE PROFILE SUGGEST THAT THESE STORMS COULD BE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THE WPC MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR TODAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT, LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW
40S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WON'T BE MUCH WARMER, WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S. AS OF NOW, THERE IS A 30-50% CHANCE THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL GET BACK ABOVE 80 DEGREES SOUTHWEST OF A AVON TO
TAYLORVILLE LINE BY NEXT MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED LATE EVENING ALONG THE KPIA-KCMI
CORRIDOR, AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST FOR THE
NEXT 2-3 HOURS. MUCH OF THIS HAS BEEN SKIRTING PAST KPIA/KBMI,
BUT WILL BE MORE OF AN IMPACT AT KCMI. ONCE THIS MOVES OUT, MOST
OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY, UNTIL THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO FIRE ALONG
A COLD FRONT. MUCH OF THIS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL,
THOUGH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER BEYOND 04Z IS MORE UNCERTAIN. SOME
OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS OVER 40 KNOTS
AND HAIL.
SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP QUICKLY THURSDAY MORNING, AND
WILL FREQUENTLY GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS BEGINNING LATE MORNING.
WITH THE FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD, EXPECT A QUICK SWITCH OF WINDS
TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY EVENING, STILL GUSTING 25-30 KNOTS.
ALONG WITH THIS FRONT, CEILINGS QUICKLY DROP TO IFR OR LOW MVFR
RANGE EARLY THIS EVENING.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
FORECAST TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY MAY EXCEED MARCH RECORDS IN
SOME AREAS.
MAR 26 RECORD MARCH RECORD
CHARLESTON.... 84 (1907) 89 (3/24/1929 AND 3/22/2026)
DECATUR....... 83 (1907) 89 (3/24/1929)
JACKSONVILLE.. 83 (1950) 91 (3/21/1907)
LINCOLN....... 83 (1991) 86 (3/29/1985 AND 3/30/1986)
NORMAL........ 83 (2007) 88 (3/21/1907)
OLNEY......... 85 (1907) 89 (3/24/1910 AND 3/24/1929)
PEORIA........ 82 (1907/1991) 87 (3/21/1907)
SPRINGFIELD... 81 (1991) 91 (3/21/1907)
URBANA........ 81 (1907) 85 (3/21/1907 AND 3/24/1910)
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...COPPLE
DISCUSSION...COPPLE
AVIATION...GEELHART
CLIMATE...GEELHART
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