045
FXUS63 KILX 270504
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1204 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS ALONG AND NORTHEAST
OF A CANTON TO SHELBYVILLE LINE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
PRIMARY RISKS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70MPH,
HAIL LARGER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER, AND A FEW TORNADOES
- AFTER RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH TODAY, TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING...
19Z/2PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE IOWA/MISSOURI STATE
LINE. RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH PREVAILS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH CURRENT READINGS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE NORTH OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE 50S IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
19Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPES OF 1000-1500J/KG POOLING
SOUTH OF THE FRONT: HOWEVER, 150-200J/KG OF MLCIN HAS THUS FAR
CAPPED ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
SHOWING A CU FIELD FORMING ALONG/NORTH OF A MACOMB TO PONTIAC
LINE...AND THIS WILL BE THE AREA TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. WHILE CAM TIMING STILL
VARIES SLIGHTLY, A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FROM THE HRRR AND RRFS
SUGGESTS THE FIRST CLUSTER OF STORMS FORMING NORTHEAST OF PEORIA
BETWEEN 21Z/4PM AND 22Z/5PM...THEN TRACKING E/SE JUST NORTH OF
THE I-74 CORRIDOR THROUGH 00Z/7PM. GIVEN THE POOL OF HIGH CAPES,
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 50-60KT,
THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE CAP IS
BROKEN IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY. THE INITIAL
STORM CLUSTER WILL THEREFORE POSE A VERY LARGE HAIL RISK
(POTENTIALLY GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER), AS WELL AS A
TORNADO RISK IF IT REMAINS CLOSE TO THE BOUNDARY AS ADVERTISED.
ONCE THE LATE AFTERNOON STORM CLUSTER PUSHES INTO INDIANA,
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL FIRE FURTHER WEST ALONG THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A NARROW WINDOW BETWEEN
ABOUT 6PM AND 10PM WHEN FAVORABLE INSTABILITY/SHEAR PROFILES
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ALL STORM HAZARDS BEFORE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY WANES AND THE SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHES. IT APPEARS
THE MOST FAVORED LOCATION FOR SEVERE THIS EVENING WILL BE ALONG
AND NEAR THE I-72 CORRIDOR...BEFORE THE STORMS BEGIN TO LOSE
THEIR VIGOR AS THEY SINK SOUTHWARD TO THE I-70 BY MIDNIGHT OR
SHORTLY AFTERWARDS.
SHARPLY FALLING TEMPERATURES...
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES, STRONG N/NE WINDS GUSTING 30-35MPH
WILL BRING A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS
TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE KILX CWA, WITH LOWER 40S SOUTH OF I-70.
FRIDAY WILL START OUT AS A CLOUDY, BREEZY, AND VERY CHILLY
DAY...BEFORE AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE RETURNS BY AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION, SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE FRIDAY NIGHT. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING OF THE DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO PLUNGE
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S...WHICH COULD POSE A RISK TO TENDER
SPRING VEGETATION THAT HAS EMERGED 2-3 WEEKS EARLY.
WARMER AND WETTER NEXT WEEK...
AFTER A BRIEF CHILL TO START THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY REBOUND INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY...THEN BACK INTO THE 80S
BY NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL ALSO BECOME
DECIDEDLY MORE UNSETTLED AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAVERS IN THE
REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS. WHILE IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT
ANY SPECIFIC SEVERE WEATHER RISK AT THAT TIME RANGE, THE
COLORADO STATE MACHINE LEARNING ALGORITHM IS HIGHLIGHTING LOW
PROBABILITIES (5-15% CHANCE) FOR SEVERE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
ILLINOIS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST FEATURES
DAILY RAIN CHANCES, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE (60%) FOCUSED ON
THURSDAY. STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS AS DETAILS BECOME
CLEARER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FESTER
THROUGH ABOUT 09Z BEFORE DIMINISHING. MVFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH 15Z BEFORE SCATTERING OUT AS DRIER, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY,
DIMINISHING BY 00Z AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...BARNES
DISCUSSION...BARNES
AVIATION...MJA
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