367
FXUS63 KILX 271141
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
641 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES RETURN TONIGHT, WITH A MEDIUM-
HIGH (50-80%) CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW 29
DEGREES. THIS THREAT IS HIGHEST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70, WITH
THE LIKELIHOOD INCREASING THE FURTHER NORTH ONE TRAVELS.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN WARM SIGNIFICANTLY NEXT WEEK.
- THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS LOOMING
NEXT WEEK, WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
(60% CHANCE) MID- TO LATE- WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
(THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING AS A DRIER, SUBSIDENT AIR MASS, LINKED TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, SCOURS OUT THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
HOWEVER, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COLD AND BLUSTERY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, WITH A STIFF NORTH WIND PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 50S, REPRESENTING A SIGNIFICANT 35-40
DEGREE DROP FROM YESTERDAY'S HIGHS.
WINDS WILL SUBSTANTIALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL THEN DRIVE OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE MID-
TO-UPPER 20S ACROSS A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE
RECENT WARM SPELL, THERE WAS SOME CONSIDERATION FOR A FREEZE
WARNING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70, BUT THE PROBABILITY OF
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW 29F IN THAT AREA WAS LESS THAN 50%.
NEVERTHELESS, SENSITIVE VEGETATION THAT HAS RECENTLY BEGUN TO
GROW SHOULD BE CONSIDERED AT RISK REGION-WIDE AS TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR 3-4 HOURS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
A SEASONABLY COOL SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A RAPID WARMING
TREND NEXT WEEK, DRIVEN BY EXPANSIVE MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 60S ON SUNDAY BEFORE
SURGING INTO THE 80S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE SIGNAL FOR WET AND STORMY WEATHER REEMERGES BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST ROUND IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, DRIVEN BY
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND
PHASING WITH A WELL-DEFINED, NORTHERN-STREAM, MID-LEVEL TROUGH.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY, RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS (30-40 MPH) AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER STORMY PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS CHOPPY MID-LEVEL FLOW INTRODUCES MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES NEAR OR OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION, WITH A
SURGE OF THE GULF STREAM NORTHWARD BENEATH A STRONG BELT OF
WESTERLIES CREATING A CONDUCIVE CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE.
REGARDLESS OF THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL, THE AREA HAS
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF ALLEVIATING PRE-EXISTING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK, WITH GLOBAL ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SUGGESTING
A TOTAL OF 1-2 INCHES OF QPF.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
LOW MVFR STRATUS WILL IMPACT MOST TERMINALS EAST OF I-55 (50-60%
CHANCE) TO START THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE SLIDING EAST OF HERE
LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH GUSTS PEAKING BETWEEN 25-30 KTS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS EASE TONIGHT THEN BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER 09Z AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...MJA
DISCUSSION...MJA
AVIATION...NMA
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