408
FXUS63 KILX 272326
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
626 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A HARD FREEZE WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS LOW TEMPERATURES BOTTOM
OUT IN THE MIDDLE 20S. ANY SENSITIVE EARLY SPRING VEGETATION
SHOULD BE PROTECTED FROM POTENTIAL FREEZE DAMAGE.
- AFTER A QUIET WEEKEND, UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES OF
RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
..HARD FREEZE TONIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD TONIGHT, RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS. WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING THE HIGH DIRECTLY OVER CENTRAL
ILLINOIS BY 12Z SAT, EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP AS WINDS BECOME NEARLY CALM AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
UPSTREAM AIRMASS ACROSS IOWA IS VERY DRY...AS EVIDENCED BY
17Z/12PM DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 20S. AS THIS DRIER AIR CONTINUES
TO FILTER SOUTHEASTWARD, EFFICIENT COOLING WILL OCCUR ONCE THE
WINDS DROP OFF. AS A RESULT, HAVE UNDERCUT NBM GUIDANCE BY
SEVERAL DEGREES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MIDDLE
20S. A FEW LOW-LYING SPOTS MAY EVEN REACH THE LOWER 20S
ALONG/WEST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR WHERE THE AIRMASS WILL BE THE
DRIEST. EVEN THOUGH THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT OFFICIALLY GOTTEN
UNDERWAY, MANY PLANTS HAVE EMERGED OR HAVE BEGUN GROWING ABOUT
2-3 WEEKS EARLY THIS SPRING. ANY PARTICULARLY SENSITIVE
VEGETATION SHOULD BE PROTECTED IN ORDER TO AVOID POTENTIAL
FREEZE DAMAGE.
..UNSETTLED WEATHER NEXT WEEK
COOL/DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST OF
THE REGION AND SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW RESUMES IN EARNEST,
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND WELL INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY...THEN
INTO THE 70S AND 80S BY NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AS HAS BEEN
SEEN BY THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES, THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
WILL TRANSITION FROM NORTHWESTERLY ON SATURDAY TO ZONAL OR
WEAKLY SOUTHWESTERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
TRAVERSES THE COUNTRY, IT WILL PULL THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT INTO THE REGION BY LATE TUESDAY. PREVIOUS MODELS DISPLAYED
TYPICAL TIMING VARIANCES AT THAT RANGE: HOWEVER, THE 12Z MAR 27
SUITE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT...COALESCING AROUND A
TUESDAY NIGHT FROPA. LATEST NBM GUIDANCE IS DRY FOR MONDAY,
FOLLOWED BY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. GIVEN THE WARM/HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE AND EARLY
INDICATIONS FROM THE GFS OF SBCAPES REACHING 1000-1500J/KG, WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE COLORADO STATE
MACHINE LEARNING ALGORITHM HAS INCREASED THE SEVERE WEATHER
PROBABILITIES INTO THE 15-30% RANGE ACCORDINGLY.
THE COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY AND STALL AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW.
AFTER THAT, ONE OR MORE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY RIDE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY...PROVIDING PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. WHILE ITS STILL TOO EARLY TO PREDICT EXACT AMOUNTS,
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS
ALL OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. IN FACT, THE 00Z LREF
SHOWS A 40-60% CHANCE OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN NEXT
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NW KILX CWA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS 20-25 KTS, DECREASING THIS EVENING AND BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY 07Z-11Z. SOUTH WINDS 8-12 KTS DEVELOPING BY 18Z.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...BARNES
DISCUSSION...BARNES
AVIATION...37
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