675
FXUS63 KILX 281731
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1231 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE
60S ON SUNDAY, AND NEAR 80 DEGREES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT
NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ON ANY SINGLE DAY
IS STILL UNCERTAIN, THERE IS A CLEARER SIGNAL FOR A
SUBSTANTIAL MULTI- DAY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF
THE ILLINOIS RIVER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
(THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
A SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIR MASS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION
TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS. WHILE A RAPID
FIRE SPREAD CONCERN WAS NOTED FOR FAR WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON, IT IS CONSIDERED MARGINAL. MESOSCALE SOUNDINGS, SUCH
AS THOSE FROM THE HRRR MODEL, SUGGEST DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING COULD DROP MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) INTO THE 20-25%
RANGE. HOWEVER, THIS DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO PRECEDE THE ONSET OF
STRONGER WINDS. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WON'T TIGHTEN
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING, AFTER THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER DEPARTS EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THEREFORE, WHILE A
BRIEF WINDOW OF IFFY BURNING CONDITIONS MIGHT OCCUR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS, A RED FLAG WARNING
SCENARIO IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH BEHIND DEPARTING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 60S
BY SUNDAY, ACCORDING TO DETERMINISTIC NBM GUIDANCE, BEFORE
SOARING CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS
WARMER WEATHER WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS.
AFTERNOON GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THEN INCREASE TO THE 30-40 MPH RANGE ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
A WET WEEK IS ON THE WAY, BRINGING NEAR-DAILY OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST, LOW-PROBABILITY CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT, PRIMARILY IN
NORTHERN ILLINOIS, BUT POSSIBLY EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
INTERSTATE 74 CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY COULD BLOSSOM AS SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES IN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND INTERACTS
WITH A STRONG, VEERING LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS, POTENTIALLY PRODUCING
SOME LOW-END HAIL AND WIND.
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES TUESDAY
EVENING. BY THEN, THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. HOWEVER, THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
CURRENTLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO NEBULOUS MID-LEVEL FORCING, A WELL-
CAPPED WARM SECTOR WITH ONLY MARGINAL CAPE/SHEAR, AND
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE ORIENTATION OF DEEP-SHEAR VECTORS RELATIVE
TO THE COLD FRONT. THE SETUP MAY BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO A HEAVY
RAIN EVENT THAN SEVERE WEATHER. CURRENT RAINFALL PROJECTIONS
SHOW GLOBAL ENSEMBLES AGREEING ON A NARROW AXIS OF 0.75" TO 1"
OF RAIN FROM SOUTHWEST MISSOURI TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT, WHILE DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST LOCALIZED,
CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED AMOUNTS THAT COULD REACH 2".
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A RETURN TO COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS AS
AN ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION UNDER RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY, BY 20-25 DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT,
RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING WEDNESDAY NIGHT, PARTICULARLY NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 74, WHICH MAY NECESSITATE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BY
THEN.
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A
DISTINCT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS AND PIVOTS OVER THE CENTRAL US.
THE EXACT PATH OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW, WHETHER IT FOLLOWS
THE ILLINOIS RIVER OR THE OHIO RIVER, IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THIS
UNCERTAINTY IMPACTS BOTH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND
THE QPF FOR THURSDAY. THEN, LOOKING AHEAD, GLOBAL FORECAST
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
AND FRONTAL SYSTEM SWEEPING THROUGH OUR AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND,
SUGGESTING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
SKIES WILL INITIALLY BE CLEAR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON: HOWEVER, MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FROM THE S/SE AT AROUND 10KT,
BUT WILL VEER TO THE SW AND GUST OVER 20KT BY MID-MORNING
SUNDAY.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...MJA
DISCUSSION...MJA
AVIATION...BARNES
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