845
FXUS63 KILX 290508
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1208 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER A QUIET WEEKEND, UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES OF
RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- THE GREATEST PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL FOCUS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
QUIET WARMING TREND...
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD THE EAST COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND NUMERIC GUIDANCE SUGGEST S/SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20MPH
ON SUNDAY...THEN 25-30MPH ON MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY, THEN
WILL SURGE INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ON MONDAY.
SEVERE WEATHER RISK ON TUESDAY...
AS HAS BEEN NOTED BY THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS, THE 12Z MAR 28
SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO ILLINOIS LATE
TUESDAY. WHILE THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY BY PEAK
HEATING IS STILL IN QUESTION, THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS IT
WILL BE APPROACHING THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY AND
I-55 TOWARD SUNSET. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE
SOMEWHAT LACKING WITH NAM/GFS SHOWING DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S...WHICH TRANSLATES TO SBCAPES OF
1000-1500J/KG. IN ADDITION, DEEP-LAYER SHEAR APPEARS TO BE
WEAKER THAN IN RECENT SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS AS THE PRIMARY UPPER
FORCING SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WELL NORTH OF ILLINOIS. NAM GENERALLY INDICATES
0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 35-45KT RANGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WHILE
THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR PROFILE IS CERTAINLY NOT OFF THE CHARTS,
THE PRESENCE OF A FORCING MECHANISM COMING INTO THE ENVIRONMENT
BY PEAK HEATING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS A RESULT, BOTH
NCAR AND NSSL MACHINE LEARNING ALGORITHMS INDICATE A GREATER
THAN 30% CHANCE FOR SEVERE, WHILE COLORADO STATE SHOWS A 15-30%
CHANCE. AN EARLY ASSESSMENT SUGGESTS THE PRIMARY RISK WILL
LIKELY BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER NEXT WEEK...
THE TUESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD AND STALL IN
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW
ON WEDNESDAY. AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD OUT OF
THE PLAINS INTERACTS WITH THE BOUNDARY, A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO INDIANA BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTION ON FRIDAY, YET ANOTHER WAVE AND
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER RISKS WITH THE LATTER TWO SYSTEMS
ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, WHAT IS BECOMING MORE EVIDENT IS
THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD/BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO FURTHER
ALLEVIATE THE LONG-TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. THE LATEST LREF NOW HIGHLIGHTS A 40-60% CHANCE OF
GREATER THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN ALONG/EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR
FROM NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS
INCREASE BY 17Z WITH GUSTS REACHING 20-25 KTS. GUSTS DROP OFF
SUNDAY NIGHT, THOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN UP AROUND 10-15
KT.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...BARNES
DISCUSSION...BARNES
AVIATION...NMA
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