697
FXUS63 KILX 291742
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1242 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL BRING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
THE 60S TODAY, AND NEAR 80 DEGREES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THIS
WEEK PROVIDING A SUBSTANTIAL MULTI-DAY RAINFALL EVENT. THERE
IS CURRENTLY A HIGH (60-80%) PROBABILITY THAT THE WEEKLY
RAINFALL WILL EXCEED 2 INCHES IN AREAS EAST OF THE ILLINOIS
RIVER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 603 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
(THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH BEHIND DEPARTING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH WELL INTO
THE 60S BY THIS AFTERNOON, ACCORDING TO DETERMINISTIC NBM
GUIDANCE, BEFORE SURGING CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES ON BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WARMER WEATHER WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS. AFTERNOON GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK BETWEEN 20
AND 30 MPH TODAY AND MONDAY, THEN INCREASE TO THE 30-40 MPH
RANGE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
A WET WEEK IS ON THE WAY, BRINGING NEAR-DAILY OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST, LOW-PROBABILITY CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT, PRIMARILY IN
NORTHERN ILLINOIS, BUT POSSIBLY EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
INTERSTATE 74 CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BLOSSOM AS SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES IN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND INTERACTS
WITH A STRONG, VEERING LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS, POTENTIALLY PRODUCING
SOME LOW-END HAIL AND WIND.
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES TUESDAY
EVENING. BY THEN, THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. HOWEVER, THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO NEBULOUS MID-LEVEL FORCING, A WELL-
CAPPED WARM SECTOR WITH ONLY MARGINAL CAPE/SHEAR, AND
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE ORIENTATION OF DEEP-SHEAR VECTORS RELATIVE
TO THE COLD FRONT. THE SETUP MAY BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO A HEAVY
RAIN EVENT THAN SEVERE WEATHER. CURRENT RAINFALL PROJECTIONS
SHOW GLOBAL ENSEMBLES AGREEING ON A NARROW AXIS OF 0.5" TO 1"
OF RAIN FROM SOUTHWEST MISSOURI TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WHILE DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST LOCALIZED,
CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED AMOUNTS THAT COULD REACH 2".
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COULD BRING A BRIEF RETURN TO DRIER AND
COOLER CONDITIONS AS AN ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM
QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION UNDER RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY, BY 20-25
DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT, RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
50S AREAWIDE.
A DISTINCT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS
EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE
EXACT PATH OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW, SPECIFICALLY WHETHER
IT WILL TRACK ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER OR THE OHIO RIVER.
HOWEVER, MODEL TRENDS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, INCLUDING BOTH THE
EPS AND GEFS, FAVOR THE MORE NORTHERN TRAJECTORY. CURRENT
PROJECTIONS INDICATE A RAIN AXIS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI TO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN, WITH EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS OF
0.75" TO 1.5" THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE THIS NEXT ROUND OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION CARRIES SOME THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, THE
CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING BY NEXT
WEEKEND, LIKELY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO PRECEDING RAINFALL EVENTS, THE GROUND WILL
BE SATURATED, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR NOTABLE URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING WITH ANY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. WHILE
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS UNCERTAIN FOR THIS
PERIOD, THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY (60-80%), ACCORDING TO OUR
100-MEMBER ENSEMBLE, THAT THIS EVENT WILL PUSH THE WEEKLY
RAINFALL TOTAL OVER 2 INCHES IN AREAS EAST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER
VALLEY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
AN AREA OF CLOUDS AT AROUND 5000FT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TO THE
I-57 CORRIDOR BY 19Z...WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE BOARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THESE CLOUDS
MAY TEND TO THIN AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THEY WILL
NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR THE TERMINALS UNTIL MID-MORNING MONDAY.
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE S WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN WILL DECREASE INTO THE 10-15KT RANGE BY SUNSET.
MODELS INDICATE A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET AFTER DARK, SO
HAVE INCLUDED 40-50KT OF WIND SHEAR AT ALL SITES AFTER 03Z
ACCORDINGLY. SOME OF THIS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR WILL MIX TO THE
SURFACE MONDAY MORNING, RESULTING IN SW WIND GUSTS OF 20-25KT AT
THAT TIME.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...MJA
DISCUSSION...MJA
AVIATION...BARNES
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page