484
FXUS63 KILX 310538
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1238 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
THE PRIMARY RISKS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.
- BENEFICIAL RAIN IS ON THE WAY FOR CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS WEEK.
THERE IS A 50-80% CHANCE OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN FROM
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
SEVERE WEATHER RISK ON TUESDAY...
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES WILL
TRIGGER CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN/CENTRAL IOWA
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CHICAGO AREA TONIGHT. THANKS TO A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPING AFTER SUNSET, HREF MEAN MUCAPES WILL
PEAK IN THE 1500-2000J/KG RANGE...RESULTING IN A RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. WHILE THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE KILX CWA, A FEW STORMS COULD BRUSH
LOCATIONS ALONG/NORTH OF A MACOMB TO MINONK LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT
WHERE A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) EXISTS.
AFTER A FEW MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE KILX CWA, ATTENTION WILL TURN TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ALONG A SLOWLY-ADVANCING COLD FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS HAS BEEN NOTED BY THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS,
SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE MODEST AS
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HOVER IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.
AS A RESULT, HREF MEAN SBCAPES ONLY REACH 1000-1500J/KG
ALONG/NORTH OF I-72. WITH THE PRIMARY UPPER FORCING REMAINING
WELL TO THE NORTH OF ILLINOIS, 0-6KM SHEAR IS PROGGED TO BE
RATHER MODEST AT 30-40KT. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE A BIT MORE
ROBUST FURTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA/OHIO WHERE SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHER.
FURTHER WEST ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS, A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE. BASED ON 12Z CAMS, IT APPEARS SCATTERED CELLS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ALONG AND NORTH OF A JACKSONVILLE TO
WATSEKA LINE BETWEEN 22Z/5PM AND 01Z/8PM, THEN WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AFTER DARK. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR PROFILE IN
PLACE, THINK THE PRIMARY RISKS WILL BE A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR THROUGH
THE EVENING. WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL
DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THIS WEEK...
THE TUESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY INCH SOUTHWARD BEFORE
IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND STALLS ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS INTERACTS WITH THE
BOUNDARY, A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER WAVE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE
ACTION ON FRIDAY, YET ANOTHER WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO GROW THAT BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WILL FURTHER
ALLEVIATE THE LONG-TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THIS WEEK. THE LATEST LREF HIGHLIGHTS A 50-80% CHANCE
OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH A
30-50% CHANCE OF MORE THAN 3 INCHES ALONG/NORTH OF A
JACKSONVILLE TO DANVILLE LINE.
STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL NEXT SATURDAY...
WHILE IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT ANY SPECIFIC SEVERE
WEATHER RISK, THE FINAL SYSTEM OF THE ACTIVE WEEK AHEAD BEARS
WATCHING FOR NEXT SATURDAY. ALL MODELS AGREE THAT A DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS SOMETIME FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
ECMWF IN PARTICULAR HAS LOOKED RATHER OMINOUS OVER THE PAST FEW
RUNS, FEATURING A DEEPENING LOW TRACKING FROM IOWA TO MICHIGAN
AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE MACHINE LEARNING ALGORITHMS DO NOT YET
HAVE A CLEAR SIGNAL FOR SEVERE, BOTH NCAR AND NSSL INDICATE AT
LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES, COOLER/DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE BACK INTO THE MIDWEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
NORTHERN IL THROUGH MORNING, POTENTIALLY CLIPPING NORTHERN AIRFIELDS
(KPIA, KBMI) BETWEEN 11-15Z. THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE
EXPECTED AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET RAMPS UP.
PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED AT ALL TERMINALS LATE IN THE PERIOD
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 30-35 KTS BY LATE MORNING.
WINDS WILL LESSEN AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
LATER THIS EVENING.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...BARNES
DISCUSSION...BARNES
AVIATION...NMA
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