619
FXUS63 KILX 010720
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
220 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. A HALF
INCH TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN, AND THERE IS A
60-80% CHANCE FOR AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR MORE. THIS WILL
BENEFIT THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, THOUGH THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED NUISANCE FLOODING WITH TRAINING STORMS
THIS MORNING.
- THERE IS A LEVEL 2 OF 5 (SLIGHT) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70
MPH, WITH A LOWER RISK FOR TORNADOES AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE
OF GOLFBALLS. THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR MORE SEVERE
WEATHER LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
- OUTSIDE OF STORMS, THERE IS A 40-50% CHANCE THAT SOUTH WINDS GUST
OVER 45 MPH TOMORROW. THIS COULD CAUSE DIFFICULT DRIVING
CONDITIONS FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED, LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS.
- THERE IS A 15-30% CHANCE FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT AND 30-50% CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT NORTH OF ROUGHLY I-70.
ACTION MAY BE NEEDED TO PROTECT NEWLY-EMERGED, TENDER
VEGETATION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
***** SHOWERS, STORMS CONTINUE THIS MORNING, MORE TONIGHT *****
AT 2AM, NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ROLLING ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS THE NOSE OF A 40-45KT LLJ IS INTERACTING WITH A
COLD FRONT - RESULTING IN 300-500 M^2/S^2 0-3KM SRH, PER OUR VAD
PROFILER. WHILE SPC'S MESOANALYSIS CURRENTLY DEPICTS 500-1000
J/KG MUCAPE ROOTED AROUND 850MB, WHICH HAS ALLOWED A FEW
FEISTIER STORMS TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL, THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY
WANE THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS A RESULT, STORM
VIGOR (RAIN RATES, LIGHTNING) SHOULD DECREASE, THOUGH TRAINING
CELLS WILL STILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. MRMS INDICATES
MOST LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OVER THE PAST 3
HOURS, WITH POCKETS OF OVER 1.5 INCHES WHERE THERE WAS TRAINING
OF HEAVIER STORMS; HREF SUGGESTS A 20-50% CHANCE FOR AN
ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OR MORE OF RAIN, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
NORTH OF ROUGHLY I-72, THROUGH 9AM. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
LOCALIZED, NUISANCE FLOODING, BUT GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS THIS RAIN SHOULD BE PRIMARILY BENEFICIAL.
WE SHOULD GET A SHORT BREAK IN RAIN ACTIVITY FOR AREAS NORTH OF
ROUGHLY I-70 LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SCATTERED
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF ANOTHER SUBTLE WAVE
AFTER AROUND 3PM. THESE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT, WHICH SHOULD REACH I-74 BY AROUND 6AM
TOMORROW. IN THE MEANTIME, IT'LL BE CHILLY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S AND EAST WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. IN
ADDITION, THERE MAY BE A WAVE OF FOG ALONG THE FRONT, POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING COMMUTERS NEAR THE I-74 CORRIDOR THURSDAY MORNING, THOUGH
CAMS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE BRIEF (1-2 HOURS) IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION.
***** WARM AND WINDY WITH MORE STORMS THURSDAY *****
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES AGREE THAT A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP BENEATH AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY-TILTED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST,
BRINGING RENEWED WARM AND MOISTURE ADVECTION TO THE PRAIRIE STATE
TOMORROW. HREF MEAN SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMB SOLIDLY INTO THE 60S BY
AFTERNOON, WHEN A REMNANT OUFLOW FROM NOCTURNAL STORMS WILL SERVE AS
A FOCUS FOR MORE CONVECTION. WITH MOST OF OUR EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR
(30-35 KT) FOCUSED IN THE LOWEST KILOMETER AND LOW (<500M) LCLS, IT
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISING IF WE SAW A TORNADO OR TWO WITH ANY DISCRETE
CELLS OR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. IN ADDITION, MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE STEEPENING LATER IN THE DAY, ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-55,
FAVORING A RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL (AGAIN PRIMARILY WITH DISCRETE
CELLS). THE MAIN CONCERN, HOWEVER, WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH
BOWING MULTICELL CLUSTERS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF UNSEASONABLY HIGH
PWATS OVER 1.5 INCHES (PRECIP LOADING), INVERTED V SOUNDINGS (DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER), AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT (APPROACHING 50 KT AT
900MB). LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EVOLUTION OF THESE STORMS
DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN LOCATION OF ONGOING CONVECTION (OR
REMNANT OUTFLOWS) DURING THE MORNING, THOUGH THE HRRR/RRFS ARE
ADVERTISING POTENTIALLY MORE THAN ONE WAVE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.
SPC'S LEVEL 2 OF 5 (SLIGHT) RISK SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY.
OUTSIDE OF STORMS, TOMORROW WILL BE A WINDY DAY GIVEN THE STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE COMPACT SURFACE LOW TO OUR WEST
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. DEPENDING ON THE MODEL
YOU LOOK AT, FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT FOR 10AM TO 8PM
TOMORROW INDICATE MEAN PBL WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KT, WITH TOP
OF CHANNEL WINDS RANGING FROM 35 TO 50 KT. THIS SUGGESTS
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS IN SURFACE WIND
SPEEDS DRIVEN BY MODEL DIFFERENCES IN MIXING DEPTH. ON THE LOWER
END OF PLAUSIBLE SCENARIOS, SOUTHERLY GUSTS WOULD TOP OUT AT 35
TO 40 MPH, WHILE THE HIGHER END MAGNITUDE (DEEPER MIXING) COULD
ALLOW SUSTAINED WINDS TO APPROACH THOSE VALUES WITH GUSTS TO 55
MPH. RIGHT NOW, LREF/NBM/HREF CHANCES ARE NEARLY 50/50 ON
WHETHER OR NOT WE'LL NEED A WIND ADVISORY (ISSUED FOR SUSTAINED
30 MPH OR GUSTS 45+ MPH). IN ANY CASE, FOLKS WILL WANT TO SECURE
LIGHTWEIGHT, UNANCHORED OUTDOOR OBJECTS AND THOSE PLANNING ON
DRIVING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES (ESPECIALLY ON WEST-EAST ROADWAYS)
WILL WANT TO KEEP A FIRM GRIP ON THE WHEEL. ON THE BRIGHT SIDE
(FOR THOSE WHO LIKE IT WARM), THIS STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL
BRING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SOLIDLY INTO THE 70S.
***** MORE SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY? *****
WITH THE SURFACE LOW PULLING OFF TO THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT, THE
COLD FRONT WILL DECAY AS IT APPROACHES OUR CWA BEFORE LIFTING BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB QUICKLY BACK INTO THE MID (LOCALLY UPPER) 60S,
RESULTING IN 1000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE (HIGHEST WEST) BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. WHILE SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAPPING INVERSION AND
DETERMINISTIC MODELS DEPICT NO EVIDENCE OF A FORCING MECHANISM,
WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ANY TRIGGER DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS THE ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER. THE HIGHER CHANCES
WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHEN THE BETTER FORCING
ARRIVES ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IF A MATURE SQUALL LINE
DEVELOPS UPSTREAM (AS THE RRFS SUGGESTS), STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
MAY KEEP IT GOING TO RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS ACROSS
OUR AREA EVEN OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FIRE SATURDAY MORNING
ALONG THE FRONT MAINLY EAST OF I-55, DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS AS
THE EVENT GETS CLOSER.
***** COOLER WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY *****
BEHIND THE FRONT, CONDITIONS WILL TURN SHARPLY COOLER ON SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 40S BY EVENING. BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL BEAR WATCHING FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES WHICH
COULD DAMAGE NEWLY EMERGED, TENDER VEGETATION. NBM GIVES A 15-30%
FOR A FREEZE SATURDAY NIGHT AND 30-50% CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT NORTH OF
I-70.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED OUT OVER CENTRAL IL THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND BE THE FOCUS FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES TRACK ALONG IT. MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS OBSERVED LATE TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE, WITH
WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY 09-12Z. PROBABILITIES
ARE HIGH (70-80%) FOR CEILINGS TO REMAIN BELOW 1K FEET THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST BY
AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 10-20 KTS AND GUSTS
OVERNIGHT UP TO 25 KT.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...BUMGARDNER
DISCUSSION...BUMGARDNER
AVIATION...NMA
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