785
FXUS63 KILX 020808
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
308 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BRING MOSTLY BENEFICIAL RAIN
TO THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THERE IS A LOW (5-15%)
RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS THAT ALREADY RECEIVED
HEAVY RAINFALL.
- THERE IS A LEVEL 2 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM ROUGHLY
2-10 PM TODAY, EXCEPT A LEVEL 3 RISK NORTH OF A MACOMB TO PONTIAC
LINE. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, BUT
THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE FOR TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL.
- FROM ROUGHLY 11AM TO 6PM TODAY, STRONG WINDS WILL BLOW FROM
THE SOUTH, CAUSING DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES ON WEST-EAST ROADWAYS. GUSTS ARE LIKELY
(60-80% CHANCE) TO PEAK OVER 45 MPH.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH ALL HAZARDS IN PLAY. THERE IS A
HIGHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT,
MAINLY WEST OF I-55. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN
RISK WITH THAT SECOND WAVE, BUT THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE OF
A TORNADO.
- OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE LIKELY (50-80% CHANCE) TO FALL INTO THE
MID 30S OR LOWER EACH MORNING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ACTION
MAY BE NEEDED TO PROTECT NEWLY-EMERGED, TENDER VEGETATION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
***** WINDY WITH SCATTERED STORMS TODAY *****
AT 3AM, PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH A COUPLE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH AN EXPANSIVE WARM CONVEYOR AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WERE IN THE 40S, BUT THESE ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB
SHARPLY AS A WARM FRONT SURGES NORTH LATER THIS MORNING. MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL BE ROBUST BEHIND THAT FRONT GIVEN VIGOROUS SOUTHERLY
WINDS, WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING SOLIDLY INTO THE 60S AREA-WIDE BY
NOON.
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS TODAY WERE A TRICKY FORECAST DUE TO MODEL
DISPARITIES IN IF/WHEN WE'LL HAVE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER. HREF
SUGGESTS 40-60% (80%+) CHANCES FOR LOW (HIGH) CLOUD COVER THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON, WITH DECREASING CHANCES WEST OF I-55 THEREAFTER. OUR
FORECAST LOOKS A LOT LIKE THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM), THOUGH
THESE MID 70S HIGHS NORTH OF I-70 MIGHT BE A TAD OPTIMISTIC IF WE
DON'T SEE MANY AFTERNOON BREAKS OF SUNSHINE.
WITH A LOW LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION AND PROLIFIC CLOUDS, MIXING DEPTH
AND HENCE MAGNITUDE OF THESE WINDS IS UNCLEAR. EVEN SO, BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM SEVERAL CAMS INDICATE A 1-3 HOUR PERIOD IN
ANY GIVEN LOCATION (BETWEEN 11AM AND 6PM) WHEN THE 40-45 KT WINDS AT
900MB MAY MIX DOWN, RESULTING IN FREQUENT SOUTHERLY GUSTS OVER 40
(SPORADICALLY 50) MPH. IN COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES, THE
WIND ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL TAP INTO
500-1000 J/KG SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PALTRY AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE, BUT STRONGLY CLOCKWISE-
CURVED HODOGRAPHS RESULTING IN 200-350 M^2/S^2 OF 0-3KM SRH COULD
FAVOR A FEW CELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY, RAP/HRRR
LCLS ARE LESS THAN 500M, FAVORING AT LEAST A LOW TORNADO RISK GIVEN
30+ KT 0-1KM SHEAR. THE PRIMARY RISK, HOWEVER, WILL BE STRONG TO
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED KINEMATIC
PROFILE. DAMP SOILS IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE, WITH A FEW SHALLOW ROOTED TREES
POTENTIALLY TOPPLING (RESULTING IN ROOF DAMAGE AND/OR POWER OUTAGES)
WHERE GUSTS SURPASS 60MPH.
AS THOSE STORMS EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING, THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR A SECOND WAVE MAINLY WEST OF I-55 WHERE A COUPLE HOURS
OF SURFACE HEATING MAY GENERATE 1000-2000 J/KG UNCAPPED MLCAPE IN A
MODESTLY SHEARED (30-40 KT 0-6KM) ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW
LCLS. IN THIS VOLATILE AIRMASS WHERE SIGTOR VALUES ARE MODELED
(HRRR/RAP) AT 2-5 (LOCALLY HIGHER), IT'S UNCLEAR WHETHER STORMS WILL
FIRE GIVEN OPTIMAL UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE DISPLACED WELL TO OUR
NORTH ACROSS IOWA, BUT IF CONVECTION ERUPTS ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WOULD
BE IN PLAY FROM ROUGHLY 5-10PM.
***** MORE STORMS TOMORROW INTO SATURDAY *****
A MORE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TOMORROW INTO SATURDAY. AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT, A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS
IS SLATED TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM ACROSS IOWA, MISSOURI, KANSAS, AND
OKLAHOMA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WHILE WE MAY SEE A FEW STRONGER CELLS
WITH THE NORTHWARD-LIFTING WARM FRONT FROM 2-7PM, THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL COME WITH THE DECAYING LINE OF
STORMS THAT WILL ENTER WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
CROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY
MORNING. THE PRIMARY RISK WILL BE GUSTY TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS,
THOUGH A QLCS TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHEST (AND CIN
LOWEST) AHEAD OF THE STORMS.
***** COOLER WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY *****
LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
CROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS, BRINGING COOL CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION BY EASTER SUNDAY, WHEN FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES COULD BECOME NECESSARY ANY NIGHT
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AS TEMPERATURES LIKELY (50-80% CHANCE)
FALL INTO THE MID 30S OR COOLER EACH NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
IFR CEILINGS WILL BE COMMON OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF WARM FRONT, WHICH IS
LOCATED IN SOUTHERN IL AS OF 05Z. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH LATER
THIS MORNING, CEILINGS WILL RISE TO MVFR AND THEN EVENTUALLY VFR.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH THE PERIOD, VEERING FROM THE NORTHEAST
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY MIDDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH MOST ACTIVITY
STAYING WEST OF I-55 OVERNIGHT. MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG A COLD FRONT.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN COVERED BY PROB30 AND TEMPO
GROUPS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING AT EACH TERMINAL.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
ILZ027>031-036-037-040-041-047>050.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ILZ038-042>046-051>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
KEY MESSAGES...BUMGARDNER
DISCUSSION...BUMGARDNER
AVIATION...NMA
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