245
FXUS63 KILX 031749
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1249 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE IS A LOW RISK
FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
TORNADOES (5-10% CHANCE) FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF A
RUSHVILLE TO BLOOMINGTON LINE.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FROM LATE EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...MAINLY WEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1005 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS HOUR SHOW THE WARM FRONT ROUGHLY ALONG
A LITCHFIELD TO PARIS LINE, WHERE DEW POINTS SOUTH OF THERE ARE
IN THE MID 60S. AS IT LIFTS NORTH, RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES
MIXED LAYER CAPE'S RISING TO AROUND 2000 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON.
HRRR AND RRFS MORNING RUNS SHOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING TO FIRE BY MID AFTERNOON IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF
I-72, LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME OF THE
MESOSCALE PARAMETERS MAY NOT BE AS POTENT AS YESTERDAY, BUT
STILL SUFFICIENT FOR POTENTIAL SUPERCELLS AND AN ATTENDANT
TORNADO THREAT. EARLIER DAY1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NUDGED THE LEVEL
2 (SLIGHT) RISK A BIT FURTHER SOUTHEAST TO SPRINGFIELD, WHICH
SEEMS REASONABLE. THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE A SECONDARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT FROM ABOUT MIDNIGHT ONWARD, WITH THE INCOMING
COLD FRONT, THOUGH MORE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE WITH STORMS ON A
WEAKENING TREND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
TORNADO RISK THIS AFTERNOON...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH OF I-70 THIS MORNING, THEN
WILL BEGIN LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WILL
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH HREF MEAN SBCAPES AROUND
2000J/KG BY PEAK HEATING. WHILE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE RATHER
MODEST (0-6KM BULK SHEAR 30-40KT), ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NEAR
THE BOUNDARY RAISES CONCERN FOR A FEW TORNADOES WITH THE
STRONGEST CELLS. HREF MEAN 0-3KM SRH MAXIMIZES FURTHER NORTHWEST
ACROSS IOWA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE TRIPLE POINT: HOWEVER,
VALUES OF 100-150 ARE NOTED FURTHER EAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
IN ADDITION, 0-3KM VGP PEAKS AT AROUND 0.50 ALONG/NORTH OF A
RUSHVILLE TO BLOOMINGTON LINE BY 00Z...WHERE SPC HAS INDICATED A
5-10% CHANCE FOR TORNADOES. BASED ON THESE PARAMETERS AND A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL FROM THE HRRR/RRFS, THINK CELLS WILL INITIALLY
DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF I-70 BETWEEN 18Z/1PM AND 19Z/2PM, THEN
SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE THERE WILL BE A LOW SEVERE RISK WITH THE STORMS AT ANY
TIME, THE ENHANCED PARAMETERS POINT TO A HIGHER CHANCE FOR A
FEW TORNADOES ACROSS THE NW KILX CWA BETWEEN 21Z/4PM AND
00Z/7PM.
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT...
MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST, THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD
FRONT FROM CENTRAL IOWA TO EASTERN KANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL INITIALLY BE POSSIBLE:HOWEVER, AS
THE CELLS CONGEAL INTO A LINE, THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BECOME
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE STORMS ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY LATE EVENING. LATEST CAMS STILL INDICATE
CONVECTION ARRIVING IN THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 10PM
AND MIDNIGHT, THEN PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE I-55 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN 2AM AND 4AM. WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY WANING AND UPPER
SUPPORT/STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WELL TO THE NORTH, THE
CONVECTIVE LINE WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS PUNCH AS IT TRACKS
EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2
OF 5) FOR SEVERE...WITH AREAS FURTHER EAST AS A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5). WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON LATER MODEL RUNS AND
RADAR TRENDS AS THE EVENT BEGINS TO UNFOLD, BUT AS OF RIGHT
NOW...THINK WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE SUB-SEVERE BY THE TIME THE
STORMS APPROACH I-55.
QUIET/COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-55...BEFORE COMING TO AN END FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION, A PERIOD OF CHILLY WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WHILE OVERNIGHT
LOWS DIP INTO THE 30S. THE COLDEST PERIOD WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT
WHEN THE LREF SUGGESTS A 60-80% CHANCE OF READINGS DROPPING
BELOW 30 DEGREES ALONG/NORTH OF A MACOMB TO CHAMPAIGN LINE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
A NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE BOARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 20
KTS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE WARM FRONT, AS WELL AS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS
THREAT EXISTS PRIMARILY BETWEEN 22Z-03Z AT ALL TERMINALS, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE AND COVERAGE REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO COVER WITH A PROB30
GROUP FOR THE TIME BEING.
LATER THIS EVENING, A HIGHER CONFIDENCE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS, AND WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST ALONG A COLD FRONT. WE COVERED THIS THREAT WITH A
PREDOMINANT TSRA MENTION, MAINLY BETWEEN 05Z-12Z. BEHIND THE
LEADING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS, A TRAILING STRATIFORM RAIN IS
LIKELY THROUGH MID- SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS GRADUALLY
BEGIN TO LIFT AND BREAK BY THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...BARNES
UPDATE...GEELHART
DISCUSSION...BARNES
AVIATION...MJA
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