157
FXUS63 KILX 031837
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
137 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TWO PERIODS OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. OF
THOSE, THE FIRST ONE (2-10 PM) WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO PRODUCE
ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS, PRIMARILY WEST OF I-55. THE SECOND
ONE, AFTER MIDNIGHT, WILL MAINLY SEE A LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
THREAT.
- A TREND FOR COOLER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND, INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS CONCERN FOR A HARD FREEZE
IN PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS MONDAY NIGHT, MAINLY FOCUSED ON
AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-74.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 137 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
THROUGH SATURDAY:
A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG I-72/US-36 EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF IT IN THE LOWER 70S AND
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIS
PARTICULAR REGION, WHILE STILL HAVING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS,
HAS HAD SOME BREAKS THAT HAVE HELPED BOOST MIXED LAYER CAPE'S TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG. NOONTIME RUN OF THE WOFS MODEL SUGGESTS THE
BOUNDARY LIFTING ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS PEORIA BY MID AFTERNOON.
WOFS OUTPUT, AS WELL AS RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND THE 12Z
RRFS, ARE ALL FOCUSING ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THE 2-3 PM
TIME FRAME. THIS SEEMS ON TRACK, AS VISIBLE SATELLITE IS SHOWING
SOME TOWERING CUMULUS CENTERED ALONG I-72, AND SOME SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN POPPING RECENTLY IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. WHILE SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT A SLAM DUNK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THERE ARE
ENOUGH COMPONENTS THAT ALL HAZARDS REMAIN IN PLAY. HOWEVER,
MOST OF THIS FOCUS WILL BE WEST OF I-55, AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD
THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY.
THE FIRST BATCH OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE OUT OF OUR FORECAST
AREA BY LATE EVENING, BUT THE LINE OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT WON'T BE TOO FAR BEHIND. MAIN FOCUS FOR THAT BAND
WILL BE IN THE MIDNIGHT TO 5 AM TIME FRAME, WITH THE MAIN
CONCERN BEING WITH LOCALIZED 50-60 MPH WIND GUSTS. AFTER THAT,
RAIN TAPERS FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
INTO INDIANA BY MIDDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL, AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MAIN CONCERN IN THIS
TIME FRAME IS WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND POTENTIAL FOR A
HARD FREEZE. LATEST LREF HAS ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF A HARD FREEZE
(LOWS 28F OR COLDER) MONDAY NIGHT, ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-74.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE, AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE 60S AND
70S. MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE A STRONG SHORTWAVE TRACKING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY, WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT ARRIVING AROUND THURSDAY. AS IT STARTS TO PARALLEL
THE UPPER FLOW, AN EXTENDED CHANCE OF RAIN BEGINS TO SET UP.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
A NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE BOARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 20
KTS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE WARM FRONT, AS WELL AS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS
THREAT EXISTS PRIMARILY BETWEEN 22Z-03Z AT ALL TERMINALS, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE AND COVERAGE REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO COVER WITH A PROB30
GROUP FOR THE TIME BEING.
LATER THIS EVENING, A HIGHER CONFIDENCE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS, AND WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST ALONG A COLD FRONT. WE COVERED THIS THREAT WITH A
PREDOMINANT TSRA MENTION, MAINLY BETWEEN 05Z-12Z. BEHIND THE
LEADING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS, A TRAILING STRATIFORM RAIN IS
LIKELY THROUGH MID- SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS GRADUALLY
BEGIN TO LIFT AND BREAK BY THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...GEELHART
DISCUSSION...GEELHART
AVIATION...MJA
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