618
FXUS63 KILX 040815
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
315 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH MID-MORNING. THE STRONGEST CELLS MAY
BE CAPABLE OF 40-50MPH WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS.
- FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF
CENTRAL ILLINOIS MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A 50-70% CHANCE OF
READINGS DROPPING BELOW 30 DEGREES ALONG AND NORTH OF A MACOMB
TO TUSCOLA LINE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
07Z/2AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1010MB LOW NEAR GALESBURG WITH
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE OZARKS. A BROKEN
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT. A 45-50KT 850MB
JET STREAK IS CURRENTLY PROVIDING ENOUGH FUEL FOR THE STORMS TO
MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AS THEY SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
KILX CWA THROUGH MID-MORNING. LATEST MESOANALYSIS REVEALS A
WEAKLY UNSTABLE/SHEARED PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
MLCAPES OF 500J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 30KT. A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF DCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 800-900J/KG IS ANALYZED
ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. THE AWOS AT
PITTSFIELD IN PIKE COUNTY RECENTLY MEASURED A THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUST OF 43MPH ACCORDINGLY. BASED ON RADAR TIMING TOOLS, THE
LINE OF STORMS WILL REACH THE I-55 CORRIDOR BY 4AM AND THE I-57
CORRIDOR BY AROUND 6AM. SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS THE
ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK: HOWEVER,
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD...ALLOWING A CONTINUATION OF PRECIP
ALONG/EAST OF I-57 THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. AFTER THAT, SHOWERS
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END ACROSS THE E/SE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACHIEVED EARLY IN THE
MORNING, WITH NW WINDS GUSTING 25-30MPH HELPING BRING COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. READINGS WILL
HOVER IN THE UPPER 40S WEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER AND IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON.
COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
UPPER TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S AND
LOWS IN THE 30S...WITH THE COOLEST PERIOD BEING MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW THAT A HARD FREEZE
WILL OCCUR ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE 12Z LREF INDICATES A 50-70% CHANCE OF TEMPS
DROPPING BELOW 30 DEGREES ALONG/NORTH OF A MACOMB TO TUSCOLA
LINE. WHILE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT YET GOTTEN INTO FULL
SWING, SOME PLANTS HAVE EMERGED A COUPLE WEEKS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE
THIS SPRING AND MAY BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE FREEZING CONDITIONS.
AFTER THAT, A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BACK TO THE REGION BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL RETURN BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
A BAND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER CENTRAL IL NEAR 06Z
AND GRADUALLY SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT,
WITH THUNDER LIKELY TO MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY 09Z-11Z AND
LINGERING SHOWERS TO END BY 15Z-18Z. CIGS WILL DECREASE WITH THE
BAND OF SHOWERS AND CONTINUE TO DECREASE BEHIND IT, REACHING IFR
TO LOW MVFR. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR BY AROUND 00Z.
WINDS INITIALLY E AROUND 10-12 KTS AT KPIA AND KBMI NORTH OF A
STALLED WARM FRONT, WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH HAVE S WINDS 12-15
KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS. BEHIND THE SHOWERS/COLD FRONT,
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO W AND INCREASE TO 14-18 KTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KTS.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038-041.
KEY MESSAGES...BARNES
DISCUSSION...BARNES
AVIATION...37
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