383
FXUS63 KILX 041059
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
559 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH MID-MORNING. THE STRONGEST CELLS MAY
BE CAPABLE OF 40-50MPH WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS.
- FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF
CENTRAL ILLINOIS MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A 50-70% CHANCE OF
READINGS DROPPING BELOW 30 DEGREES ALONG AND NORTH OF A MACOMB
TO TUSCOLA LINE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
07Z/2AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1010MB LOW NEAR GALESBURG WITH
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE OZARKS. A BROKEN
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT. A 45-50KT 850MB
JET STREAK IS CURRENTLY PROVIDING ENOUGH FUEL FOR THE STORMS TO
MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AS THEY SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
KILX CWA THROUGH MID-MORNING. LATEST MESOANALYSIS REVEALS A
WEAKLY UNSTABLE/SHEARED PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
MLCAPES OF 500J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 30KT. A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF DCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 800-900J/KG IS ANALYZED
ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. THE AWOS AT
PITTSFIELD IN PIKE COUNTY RECENTLY MEASURED A THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUST OF 43MPH ACCORDINGLY. BASED ON RADAR TIMING TOOLS, THE
LINE OF STORMS WILL REACH THE I-55 CORRIDOR BY 4AM AND THE I-57
CORRIDOR BY AROUND 6AM. SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS THE
ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK: HOWEVER,
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD...ALLOWING A CONTINUATION OF PRECIP
ALONG/EAST OF I-57 THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. AFTER THAT, SHOWERS
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END ACROSS THE E/SE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACHIEVED EARLY IN THE
MORNING, WITH NW WINDS GUSTING 25-30MPH HELPING BRING COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. READINGS WILL
HOVER IN THE UPPER 40S WEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER AND IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON.
COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
UPPER TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S AND
LOWS IN THE 30S...WITH THE COOLEST PERIOD BEING MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW THAT A HARD FREEZE
WILL OCCUR ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE 12Z LREF INDICATES A 50-70% CHANCE OF TEMPS
DROPPING BELOW 30 DEGREES ALONG/NORTH OF A MACOMB TO TUSCOLA
LINE. WHILE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT YET GOTTEN INTO FULL
SWING, SOME PLANTS HAVE EMERGED A COUPLE WEEKS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE
THIS SPRING AND MAY BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE FREEZING CONDITIONS.
AFTER THAT, A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BACK TO THE REGION BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL RETURN BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
BAND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. THE
SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER BY 12Z, EAST OF THE
I-55 CORRIDOR BY 14Z/15Z, AND EAST OF I-57 BY AROUND 19Z. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL WITHIN AND BEHIND THE RAIN BAND, WITH A
PERIOD OF IFR AT KPIA THROUGH 15Z. BASED ON UPSTREAM SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND NAM/HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS, HAVE SCATTERED THE
CEILINGS AT KSPI BY 23Z, THEN FURTHER NORTHEAST TO KCMI BY 03Z.
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE S/SW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EARLY THIS
MORNING, THEN WILL VEER TO W/NW AND GUST TO AROUND 25KT AFTER
FROPA THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...BARNES
DISCUSSION...BARNES
AVIATION...BARNES
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